Odaily星球日报讯 Rekt Capital 比较了比特币 2020 年和 2024 年减半后的时期，发现两者存在高度相似之处。两次减半事件发生后，比特币都进入了持续约 161 天的再积累阶段。2020 年，随着比特币突破其反复测试的阻力位，这一时期以抛物线反弹告终。 这两个时期的支撑位和阻力位都显示出持续的测试和再测试，为可能的上升势头奠定了基础。虽然历史模式表明可能出现重大变动，但市场状况（如交易量）的差异突显出结果可能不尽相同。 这两个时期的显著区别在于成交量（图表中使用数据来自 Bitstamp）。2020 年，Bitstamp 在减半事件后的 161 天内的比特币成交量为 118.3 万，而在 2024 年成交量为 313081。这种差异表明市场参与度发生了变化，这可能会影响到任何潜在突破的性质。 自今年减半以来，所有交易所成交量为 250 万，而在 2020 年减半后的 161 天内，成交量为 400 万。（CryptoSlate）

Odaily星球日报讯 Rekt Capital 比较了比特币 2020 年和 2024 年减半后的时期，发现两者存在高度相似之处。两次减半事件发生后，比特币都进入了持续约 161 天的再积累阶段。2020 年，随着比特币突破其反复测试的阻力位，这一时期以抛物线反弹告终。这两个时期的支撑位和阻力位都显示出持续的测试和再测试，为可能的上升势头奠定了基础。虽然历史模式表明可能出现重大变动，但市场状况（如交易量）的差异突显出结果可能不尽相同。这两个时期的显著区别在于成交量（图表中使用数据来自 Bitstamp）。2020 年，Bitstamp 在减半事件后的 161 天内的比特币成交量为 118.3 万，而在 2024 年成交量为 313081。这种差异表明市场参与度发生了变化，这可能会影响到任何潜在突破的性质。自今年减半以来，所有交易所成交量为 250 万，而在 2020 年减半后的 161 天内，成交量为 400 万。（CryptoSlate）

分析：比特币今年减半后走势与2020年类似，为潜在上涨奠定基础

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Rekt Capital compared the periods after the Bitcoin halving in 2020 and 2024, and found that they have a high degree of similarity. After both halving events, Bitcoin entered a sustained accumulation phase of approximately 161 days. In 2020, this period ended with a parabolic rebound as Bitcoin broke through its repeatedly tested resistance level.

The support and resistance levels in these two periods also show persistent testing and retesting, laying the foundation for a possible upward momentum. While historical patterns suggest the possibility of significant changes, differences in market conditions (such as trading volume) highlight that the outcomes may not be entirely the same.

The notable difference between these two periods is the trading volume (the chart data is from Bitstamp). In 2020, the Bitcoin trading volume on Bitstamp during the 161 days after the halving event was 1,183,000, while in 2024 it was 313,081. This difference suggests a change in market participation, which may affect the nature of any potential breakout.

Since the halving this year, the total trading volume across all exchanges has been 2.5 million, while in the 161 days after the 2020 halving, the trading volume was 4 million. (CryptoSlate)

Odaily Odaily Rekt Capital compared the periods after Bitcoin&#39;s 2020 and 2024 halvings and found that there are high similarities between the two. After both halving events, Bitcoin entered a re-accumulation phase that lasted about 161 days. In 2020, this period ended with a parabolic rebound as Bitcoin broke through its repeatedly tested resistance level. Support and resistance levels in both periods showed continuous testing and retesting, laying the foundation for possible upward momentum. While historical patterns suggest that major moves may occur, differences in market conditions (such as trading volume) highlight that the results may not be the same. The significant difference between the two periods is the trading volume (the data used in the chart is from Bitstamp). In 2020, Bitstamp&#39;s Bitcoin trading volume in the 161 days after the halving event was 1.183 million, while in 2024 it was 313,081. This difference indicates a change in market participation, which may affect the nature of any potential breakthrough. Since this year’s halving, volume across all exchanges has been 2.5 million, while in the 161 days following the 2020 halving, volume was 4 million. (CryptoSlate)

Analysis: Bitcoin's post-halving trend this year is similar to that of 2020, laying the foundation for potential gains

Odaily reported that on X, on-chain analyst Ali published an article stating: "BTC rose 61% in Q4 2016, and 171% in the same period in 2020. The current BTC price trend in 2024 is extremely similar to those two years. Will history repeat itself?"

Analysis: BTC's trend in 2024 is similar to that in 2016 and 2020, and Q4 may usher in a strong market

A 50-basis-point rate cut is coming, and the market reaction is generally stable. As funds gradually flow in, BTC may be entering the second half of the bull market.

Bitcoin Weekly Observation (9.16~9.22): In the first week of interest rate cut, BTC is close to breaking through the key pressure level

Odaily reports that Peter Brandt, a veteran chart analyst who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018 and the founder of Factor Trading, believes that the ratio of Bitcoin to gold could rise by more than 400% by 2025. Brandt cites classic technical chart analysis to support his extremely bullish expectations. According to the technical pattern known as the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), this pattern is formed when the price forms three consecutive troughs, with the middle trough (known as the head) being deeper than the other two troughs (known as the left shoulder and right shoulder). This pattern forms below a common support line (known as the neckline). When the price breaks through the neckline and is accompanied by an increase in trading volume, the IH&S pattern disappears. At this point, the extent of the price increase is equal to the maximum distance between the neckline and the deepest point of the head. For the exchange rate of Bitcoin to gold, the price of 1 BTC could be equal to 123 ounces of gold as early as 2025, an increase of more than 400% compared to 24 ounces on September 22, 2024.