Odaily星球日报讯 财经网站 Fxstreet 分析师团队表示，澳洲联储可能会继续抵制主要央行采取的鸽派政策转向的趋势，在周二的连续第七次会议上选择维持该政策。 道明证券的分析师在前瞻澳洲联储的政策决定时表示：“澳洲联储自 8 月会议以来的沟通和数据没有提供令人信服的理由来改变本周会议的立场，排除了今年降息的可能性。”（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 财经网站 Fxstreet 分析师团队表示，澳洲联储可能会继续抵制主要央行采取的鸽派政策转向的趋势，在周二的连续第七次会议上选择维持该政策。道明证券的分析师在前瞻澳洲联储的政策决定时表示：“澳洲联储自 8 月会议以来的沟通和数据没有提供令人信服的理由来改变本周会议的立场，排除了今年降息的可能性。”（金十）

分析师：预计澳洲联储按兵不动，今年不会开启降息周期

According to the analysis team of the financial website FXStreet, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may continue to resist the trend of dovish policy shifts adopted by major central banks, and choose to maintain this policy at its seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday. Analysts at TD Securities, when looking ahead to the RBA's policy decision, stated: "The RBA's communication and data since the August meeting have not provided compelling reasons to change its stance this week, ruling out the possibility of a rate cut this year." (Gold Ten)

Odaily Odaily Financial website Fxstreet analyst team said that the Reserve Bank of Australia may continue to resist the trend of dovish policy shifts adopted by major central banks, choosing to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday. Analysts at TD Securities said in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia&#39;s policy decision: &quot;The communication and data from the Reserve Bank of Australia since the August meeting have not provided a convincing reason to change its position at this week&#39;s meeting, ruling out the possibility of a rate cut this year.&quot; (Jinshi)

Analysts: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to remain on hold and will not start a rate cut cycle this year

According to the news from Mars Finance, Gregory Daco, the chief economist at Ernst & Young, stated that the Federal Reserve is reacting rather than being forward-looking in cutting interest rates. Data released two days after the July meeting showed that the unemployment rate had risen to 4.3%, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to take action. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August, the same concerns may resurface if it rises again in the coming months. Daco said, "Federal Reserve policymakers must adopt a robust forward-looking framework and abandon their data-dependent approach, which unfortunately they have not done so far."

Another challenge facing Powell is that Wall Street expects more future rate cuts than the Federal Reserve's projections. This week, policymakers estimated that there will be two more 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2024, and four more in 2025. Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan, said he still expects the pace of rate cuts to be faster than the Federal Reserve's consensus. Feroli expects a 50-basis-point rate cut at the next meeting in early November if the next two employment reports further weaken.

There is also a divide within the Federal Reserve on the path of rate cuts. In the interest rate setting committee, 7 policymakers support an additional 25-basis-point cut by the end of the year, 9 members support an additional 50-basis-point cut, and 2 policymakers expect no further cuts. This division reflects different assessments of the economic outlook and adds to the difficulty of Powell's coordination. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman voted against a 50-basis-point cut and supported a 25-basis-point cut, which is the first dissenting vote at the Federal Reserve since 2005. Daco said, "Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is now seen as having a significant influence on the Federal Open Market Committee, as he has successfully persuaded most officials that an early rate cut is optimal, but at the cost of policymakers potentially being more resistant to rapid rate cuts in the next two policy meetings."

EY Chief Economist: The Fed is cutting rates "reactively" rather than proactively

Odaily reports that Fitch expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points at both the November and December meetings, and the overall pace of rate cuts in this easing cycle is likely to remain moderate. The US job market is not expected to deteriorate significantly, although the Federal Reserve is implementing rate cuts. The federal funds target rate (upper limit) is expected to decline to 4.5% by the end of this year, to 3.5% by the end of 2025, and to the neutral level of 3.0% by June 2026.

Fitch: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its November and December meetings

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