In order to curb the recent domestic housing market boom driven by the new Qing'an policy, the Central Bank of Taiwan held the third quarter Board of Supervisors on the 19th and introduced the seventh wave of selective credit controls on the housing market to further curb speculation and housing hoarding in the housing market. It has now officially come into effect and is known as the toughest crackdown in history. The main revisions are as follows:
- There is no grace period for the first home purchase loan : If a natural person already has a house in his name, his first home purchase loan shall not have a grace period.
- The loan percentage for the second household to purchase a house is reduced to 50% : The maximum percentage of the loan for the second household of a natural person to purchase a house is reduced from 60% to 50%, and is extended to the whole country.
- The loan ratios for legal persons and high-priced residences have been reduced : the loan ratios for house purchase loans for corporate legal persons and for natural persons to purchase high-priced residences have dropped from 40% to 30%.
- The loan percentage for surplus housing is lowered to 30% : the maximum loan percentage for surplus housing is reduced from 40% to 30%.
76,000 households with rented housing will face impact by the end of the year
Under the new measures, the second household loan restriction order has been extended from seven cities to the whole country, and those who hand over their houses before the end of the year will become the first wave of hardest-hit households. The Economic Daily reported that there are 76,000 households in this group, with 14,700 households in Taichung City being the largest, followed closely by Taoyuan and New Taipei Province. The three municipalities will be the urban areas hardest hit by the disaster.
Xu Jiaxin, executive director of Jushou Real Estate Planning and Research Office, pointed out that after the builder obtains the license, he must notify the public to hand over the house within 6 months. In other words, in the first seven months of this year, the people who were notified to hand over the house due to the pre-sale license were all Will face loan problems after the central bank releases new housing market regulations.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Interior, in the first seven months of this year, the number of residential licenses issued nationwide reached 76,030 households, a new high in the same period in the past five years, with an annual growth rate of 22.9%. Taichung City had the highest number of 14,722 households, followed by Taoyuan City and New Taipei City with 12,191 households respectively. households, 10817 households.
Whether the most severe housing crackdown in history will shake up housing prices has aroused concern. Lai Zhichang, public relations director of our Housing Planning Research Office, analyzed that since the seventh wave of central bank measures to regulate the housing market has not affected first-time homebuyers, and the preferential housing loans in Xinqing'an continue, the housing market is basically rigid. The market is still supported, and the housing market should "consolidate instead of decline." The biggest impact will be the shrinking transaction volume in the existing housing market and whether there are defaults on pre-sold housing.
Looking to the future, He Shichang, CEO of Xinchuan Real Estate Think Tank, analyzed that in 1980, the central bank implemented a "loan ban" to buy houses, but this time it did not use a "big trick". It was obviously aimed at those who used bank funds to speculate on housing prices. , hoping that by significantly tightening bank funding, the market's expectations for rising housing prices will be dispelled, and the housing market will develop in a positive and healthy manner in the long run.
Is there a golden cross between the currency market and the housing market?
While the real estate market may be cooling down, the cryptocurrency market has rebounded recently. Yesterday, Bitcoin once exceeded $64,000. The currency market and the real estate market seem to have a "golden cross." Is this a good time for speculators to turn to the currency market? Woolen cloth?
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 2 percentage points in one breath last week, the first rate cut since 2020, bringing a wave of upward momentum to cryptocurrencies. Generally speaking, interest rate cuts will increase the liquidity of the financial system, thereby pushing up prices including cryptocurrencies. The demand for high-risk assets has therefore increased market confidence.
Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, analyzed earlier this month that Bitcoin and digital assets will continue to be boosted after the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut. Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November, overall Economic factors will drive digital asset prices higher.
As the currency market rebounds, many analysts have recently expressed optimism. Analyst Titan of Crypto predicts that Bitcoin is expected to surge to $85,000 by the end of the year. Factor Trading, a senior analyst who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018 Founder Peter Brandt even believes that the ratio of Bitcoin to gold will rise by more than 400% by 2025.
Whether the United States can successfully achieve a soft landing is the biggest concern
However, it should be noted that this sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve emphasizes that it is a preventive measure aimed at maintaining the stability of the economy and the labor market. It does not mean that an economic recession is approaching or that the job market may collapse, which has aggravated market concerns about an economic recession. lower, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.
However, the next economic data remains to be seen. If concerns about economic recession resurface, or even eventually fail to escape recession, then the currency market is also likely to be at risk of a sharp decline, and investors should always pay attention.
