Odaily星球日报讯 CryptoQuant 指出，比特币价格在美联储降息 50 个基点后上涨近 8%。其“盈利供应”指标已突破 365 天移动平均线，预示着未来可能进一步上涨。该指标显示，越来越多的比特币持有者处于盈利状态，可能减轻卖压并提升市场信心。然而，Bitfinex 分析师提醒，比特币的上涨最初由现货市场购买推动，但这一活动的放缓可能导致短期内的盘整或部分回调。（The Block）

CryptoQuant：比特币“盈利供应”水平预示上涨潜力

Odaily Odaily CryptoQuant pointed out that the price of Bitcoin rose nearly 8% after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Its &quot;profitable supply&quot; indicator has broken through the 365-day moving average, indicating that further increases may be possible in the future. The indicator shows that more and more Bitcoin holders are in a profitable state, which may reduce selling pressure and boost market confidence. However, Bitfinex analysts reminded that Bitcoin&#39;s rise was initially driven by spot market purchases, but the slowdown in this activity may lead to consolidation or partial pullbacks in the short term. (The Block)

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin’s “Profitable Supply” Levels Signal Upside Potential

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Cryptoquant analyst Avocado published an article stating that several on-chain data points of Bitcoin have reached the average support level, which indicates a potential major turning point in the long term:

1. The 7-day moving average of the Fund Flow Ratio has reached 0.05, now showing a slight rebound. This indicates that investors are starting to trade on exchanges again. The 0.05 level has historically been the main support line where the indicator stops declining and starts rebounding. Such a rebound usually occurs at the end of a bear market or a halving event, and the beginning of a bull market, leading to a significant long-term rise in the price of Bitcoin.

2. The 30-day moving average of the Estimated Leverage Ratio has formed a critical support range between 0.15 and 0.175, and is currently showing signs of recovery and upward movement. With the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs in late 2021 and the recent positive news about Bitcoin options trading, Avocado believes that the impact of this indicator will continue to grow.

3. The 30-day moving average of Binary CDD is moving between 0.1 and 0.3, indicating that long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin. A significant increase in this value usually signals the end of a bull market.

Avocado concluded that from a long-term perspective, these support levels and the recent trend of Bitcoin are very positive.

Analysis: Three long-term on-chain indicators reach average support levels, which may indicate a bullish outlook for Bitcoin

ChainCatcher News, Bitfinex released a report stating that "although the Bitcoin trend is strong, Bitcoin has not yet broken through the key high of $65,200 on August 25. This is very important because if Bitcoin fails to break this level, it will confirm a pattern since it hit a record high of $73,666 in March, that is, Bitcoin has not been able to exceed any previous highs, forming a new local bottom, maintaining a downward trend. In other words, from a longer time frame, Bitcoin has been in a downward trend since March. 

In addition, although the recent price increase is optimistic, the growth of Bitcoin's open interest has exceeded the increase in Bitcoin's own price, indicating that last week's trend was more from the futures and perpetual markets, rather than the spot market. 

At the same time, we have also seen some Altcoins soar, with some well-known tokens rising more than 100% from their lows in August and September. However, caution is also needed here, as the open interest of Altcoins has also reached new highs, but the overall Altcoin market has not seen a corresponding price breakthrough. The OTHERS index (measuring the performance of Altcoins outside the top 10 by market cap) has continued to decline over the past month.

As the spot Bit market buying momentum slows down, the incremental spot trading volume tends to stabilize when the price reaches $63,500, we expect Bit to be in a range-bound fluctuation in the short term.

However, an important counterargument is that the continued inflow of ETF funds may boost Bit prices. Last week, the spot Bit ETF recorded new inflows, adding $397.2 million. This suggests that if the traditional financial market such as the S&P 500 continues to rise, Bit may still have the potential for further upside. If Bit breaks through the key resistance at the end of August, this could drive its price to new highs, especially with the end of the summer low liquidity period. However, without sustained spot buying, Bit is most likely to consolidate or partially retrace."

Bitfinex report: As BTC spot market buying slows down, it is expected to be range-bound in the short term

Since the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points last Wednesday, Ethereum's performance has outperformed Bitcoin, and this upward trend is consistent with a significant increase in the weighted average perpetual futures funding rate of ETH's open interest, indicating stronger demand for long positions, and traders' optimism about the potential for ETH price appreciation is growing. However, Ruslan Lienkha, market manager at the cryptocurrency exchange YouHodler, believes that while the market is optimistic about Ethereum, if the optimism is excessive or external factors change, the market also faces the risk of a pullback. (The Block)