1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
l U.S. stocks face challenges in the October earnings season, beware of market panic
The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18, marking the start of an easing cycle, but analysts warned that the upcoming earnings season is more important for U.S. stocks. Although the S&P 500 index has risen by about 19% this year, the market needs to be wary of the panic that may be caused by the downward revision of corporate profit expectations.
Currently, the rise in US stocks reflects a "Goldilocks combination" of economic growth, increased corporate profits and lower interest rates. However, if future economic data or financial reports perform poorly, the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index may rise to 22 times, exceeding reasonable valuations. Analysts point out that a downward revision of corporate earnings forecasts is very likely, especially in a high-interest environment, with consumer and corporate budgets tightening.
The October earnings season will reveal more clues, with earnings from Google parent Alphabet and Meta in the spotlight.
JPMorgan Chase warns: US stock returns could fall sharply over the next decade
JPMorgan Chase released a report saying that the average annual return of the S&P 500 index in the next decade may drop to 5.7%, only half of the level since the end of World War II. Analysts Jan Loeys and Alexander Wise pointed out that the current valuation of US stocks is high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.7 times, far higher than the 35-year average of 19 times, indicating that future returns will return to the mean.
In addition, factors such as accelerated aging, the government's fight against deficits, and increasingly stringent monopoly regulation have also put pressure on U.S. stocks. As the "baby boomers" gradually retire, their allocation to stocks may decline, further suppressing market performance.
JPMorgan also mentioned that there is uncertainty about whether U.S. companies can continue to grow after the post-epidemic expansion. Foreign investors' interest in U.S. dollar assets may weaken in the next five to ten years, affecting the long-term returns of U.S. stocks. Analysts emphasized that these observations apply to long-term investment decisions rather than short-term market fluctuations.
(2) Web3 field:
l UXUY DApp Center is launched on Telegram, bringing multi-chain application experience to 900 million users
UXUY, incubated and invested by Binance Labs, announced that Telegram's first multi-chain application center, UXUY DApp Center, is officially launched. Users can seamlessly use games, transactions, lending and other applications on Telegram through the decentralized UXUY Wallet (@UXUYbot) to explore a richer Web3 ecosystem.
@UXUYbot provides users with a Metamask-like experience, and for the first time integrates popular applications such as Uniswap, Pancake, and Aave into the Telegram ecosystem. It currently has more than 1.5 million users.
Kevin, the founder of UXUY, said that Telegram is becoming the traffic entrance for large-scale adoption of Web3. The success of Notcoin, Catizen, and Dogs is attracting multi-chain ecology and infrastructure to migrate to Telegram. UXUY hopes to become the most solid connector among them and bring multi-chain application experience to 900 million Telegram users.
2. Hot events
Macro environment:
Nvidia plans to acquire startup OctoAI for $165 million
Nvidia has proposed to acquire OctoAI, a Seattle-based startup focused on software that makes artificial intelligence models run more efficiently, for about $165 million. The acquisition is intended to bolster Nvidia’s cloud computing and software services capabilities.
OctoAI was founded in 2019 and initially helped developers deploy machine learning models, but later turned to providing services for quickly adjusting open source or custom AI models. The company said its software can reduce operating costs and improve performance, and it achieved millions of dollars in revenue last year.
However, analysts believe that this acquisition offer may have limited returns for OctoAI shareholders, with common shareholders receiving only two cents per share. OctoAI has raised $132 million and was valued at approximately $900 million in 2021. Nvidia has recently acquired several AI and cloud computing startups, and this transaction may face scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice because OctoAI also has partnerships with its competitors such as Amazon Web Services and AMD.
Japanese AI startup Sakana AI has successfully raised approximately 30 billion yen (approximately $214 million) in its Series A round of financing, bringing the company's valuation to $1.5 billion. Sakana AI was founded in July 2023 by former Google researchers. Investors in this round include several financial institutions such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Nomura Holdings, as well as well-known companies such as NEC, Itochu Corporation, KDDI and Fujitsu.
Sakana AI has secured processing time on Japan’s supercomputers and is working with multiple organizations to strengthen Japan’s AI ecosystem, a move that echoes NVIDIA’s recent initiative to support sovereign AI projects in Japan.
Web3 Field:
Web3 startup Vana announced the successful completion of a $5 million strategic financing led by Coinbase Ventures. This financing brings Vana’s cumulative financing to $25 million.
Vana aims to build a user-owned data pool network, solve the problem of insufficient AI model training data through blockchain technology, and provide Internet users with opportunities to earn income. The company plans to establish a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) network that allows members to pool data from social media platforms such as Reddit, LinkedIn or X and sell these data sets to AI researchers.
Prior to this, Vana had received $18 million in Series A funding led by Paradigm.
3. Hot topic narrative
Web3 payment and PayFi are two hot tracks in the current cryptocurrency market. Web3 payment is a payment method based on blockchain and cryptocurrency technology. It directly transfers value between users through smart contracts, DApps and cryptocurrency, and does not rely on traditional financial institutions. Unlike traditional payment, Web3 payment is not based on an account system, but transfers value through a decentralized network, which can solve the problems of high fees and low efficiency of cross-border transfers in traditional payment.
There are two main types of Web3 payments: deposit and withdrawal payments and cryptocurrency payments. Deposit and withdrawal payments refer to the exchange and payment between cryptocurrency and legal tender, including the purchase of cryptocurrency with legal tender (deposit) and the exchange of cryptocurrency for legal tender (withdrawal). Cryptocurrency payments include on-chain native payments (using cryptocurrency to participate in Web3 native scenario transactions) and off-chain entity payments (using cryptocurrency to purchase offline physical goods or services). Web3 payments connect legal tender and cryptocurrency through deposit and withdrawal payments, and build a complete closed-loop payment ecosystem through cryptocurrency payments.
The main profit models of Web3 payment projects include deposit and withdrawal fees, access service fees, blockchain gas network fees and foreign exchange spreads. Among them, deposit and withdrawal fees and access service fees are the main profit methods, which rely heavily on network effects. The more users and merchants use Web3 payment, the greater the transaction volume generated, and the more revenue can be generated.
PayFi is a new financial market built around the time value of money, combining DeFi and Web3 payments to maximize the time value of money. PayFi is suitable for Web3 transactions, off-chain consumption, creator monetization, accounts receivable financing and other scenarios. Typical applications include Web3 payments integrated with DeFi, Web3 banks, RWA finance, payment financing, consumer Crypto payment applications and streaming payments.
As the market value of stablecoins exceeds 2 trillion US dollars, Web3 payment and PayFi have broad market prospects. PayFi can bring trillions of offline payment volumes to the chain, provide sustainable risk-adjusted returns, and provide more efficient new financial applications based on smart contracts. Web3 payment and PayFi are expected to become important pillars of the digital economy.
4. Potential Catalyst
Polygon co-founder Sandeep Nailwal delivered a speech titled "The Age of Aggregation" at the TOKEN2049 conference, which explored the current status and future trends of the blockchain industry. He pointed out that although the current blockchain industry has achieved certain success, core issues such as scalability and interoperability still need to be solved. In order to achieve global popularization of blockchain, it is necessary to break the limitations of traditional frameworks and pursue unlimited scalability and unified protocols.
Sandeep introduced Polygon's innovative attempts to solve these problems, especially how its latest product achieves cross-chain interoperability and security guarantees by adding a layer of architecture. This architecture not only unifies liquidity, but also allows developers to maintain full control over their projects while enjoying unlimited scalability. He said that Polygon's goal is to enable each application to launch its own chain without being isolated, thereby building a true value Internet.
Sandeep also shared Polygon's optimistic outlook on the future of the blockchain industry and called on developers to actively embrace change and jointly promote the healthy development of the industry. With the continuous advancement of technology and the improvement of the ecosystem, blockchain will play an important role in a wider range of fields and inject new vitality into the global economy.
Finally, Sandeep revealed Polygon’s upcoming new features and tools, which aim to further lower the development threshold and enhance the user experience.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functions. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading. Although $ETH has fallen sharply in recent days due to reduced income and whale withdrawal, the market is still mainly optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.
Key projects:
· NEIRO
$NEIRO was named after a new dog named Neiro adopted by the owner of the famous Shiba Inu Kabosu. The market thought that the dispute between $Neiro and $NEIRO, which had lasted for many months, would be decided by the launch of $NEIRO contracts on OKX and Binance in early September. However, there have been new developments recently. Two weeks after the launch of uppercase $NEIRO, lowercase $Neiro, which represents the power of the community, was directly launched on Binance, and immediately increased by nearly 30 times within two days. The community was filled with laughter, and the craze for lowercase $Neiro completely ignited the enthusiasm on the chain.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. BRETT (@brettcoinonerc /X)
$Brett is a meme coin based on the Base blockchain, inspired by the character Brett from Matt Furie’s comic book “Boys Club.” The character is loved by fans around the world for his laid-back attitude and love of video games, and is closely associated with Pepe the Frog, an important symbol in cryptocurrency culture.
2. $michi (@michionsolana /X)
$michi is a cryptocurrency based on the Solana blockchain that aims to combine meme culture with a community-driven economic model. $michi's design is inspired by a cute cat image and aims to attract a wide range of user groups, especially fans of meme culture.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. AGENT (@Agent_Layer /X)
Agent is a decentralized artificial intelligence blockchain protocol that aims to provide a secure, permissionless environment for autonomous AI agents. Its token $AGENT was recently officially deployed on the Base chain, leveraging Base's large user base and active developer ecosystem to promote the expansion and development of its application scenarios.
2. MOTHER (@MOTHERprovides /X)
$MOTHER is a meme coin launched by Australian rapper Iggy Azalea on the Solana blockchain on May 28, 2024. Azalea actively promoted $MOTHER on social media, using her 8 million followers on X (formerly Twitter) to create topics, which attracted widespread attention in the market and the price soared by more than 500% within 30 days of its launch.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
