1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro field:
Bank of America clients bought U.S. stocks heavily last week, with net purchases the largest in nearly two years, led by smart money
Last week, the Federal Reserve initiated a 50 basis point interest rate cut. Jill Carey Hall, quantitative strategist at Bank of America, and her team pointed out in their latest research report on Tuesday that the bank's clients bought US stocks vigorously, with a net purchase of US$6.9 billion, the largest inflow since October 2022 and the third largest inflow in the history of Bank of America data, among which the so-called "smart money" inflow was the most obvious.
(2) Web3 field:
lFed officials consider further rate cuts, impact on Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes claimed in a post on X, noting that the price of Bitcoin remained stable over the weekend. This contradicts his previous skepticism that Bitcoin might not profit from the rate cut. A series of other experts expressed similar optimism in exclusive interviews with BeInCrypto, albeit with some caveats.
For example, Harsh Agarwal, investment director at Cypher Capital, noted that “if Bitcoin reaches $68,000, it would generate $145 billion in gains.” He claimed that several bullish factors are aligned, but that this does not guarantee success. Mithril Thakore, CEO and co-founder of Velar, further described these dynamics:
“The Federal Reserve’s September 18 rate cut appears to have awakened the cryptocurrency market from its coma and provided BTC with a much-needed catalyst to consider retesting previous highs. However, before reaching this level, $64,000 has proven to be a key resistance area, and it remains to be seen whether BTC can convincingly break through this barrier,” Thakore claimed.
Figure 1. Glassnode prediction
Source: X, Dot Labs
2. Hot events
Web3 Field:
l SBF's ex-girlfriend Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison
On September 25, Fortune magazine reported that US Judge Lewis Kaplan sentenced SBF's ex-girlfriend and former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison to two years in federal prison. Ellison will begin serving her sentence in early November and will be sent to a minimum security prison. The judge approved Ellison's request to serve her sentence in a prison in Boston, close to her family.
Bank of New York Mellon is advancing crypto ETF custody services
Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) is moving forward with offering Bitcoin and Ethereum custody services to its exchange-traded fund (ETF) clients. This comes after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided after a review that BNY does not need to comply with the controversial crypto asset accounting rule SAB 121. Since its introduction in 2022, SAB 121 has required companies that custody crypto assets to include them in their accounts as liabilities, putting pressure on the crypto industry. The SEC said that customer protection measures at banks such as BNY are sufficiently robust, allowing them to be consistent with traditional custody arrangements in accounting treatment. BNY still needs approval from other regulators before it can officially offer services.
3. Hot topic narrative
Facebook's public chain Sui has attracted much attention recently. The most discussed Sui-related topic on social media is "SUI token seems to be replicating SOL's 2021 trend". Many people believe that SUI's recent rise is very similar to the startup stage before SOL's last round of big rise, so it is inferred that Sui may become the next Solana.
Judging from the on-chain data, Sui's current data is generally better than Solana's performance in 2021. In fact, although Solana's token SOL has seen a huge increase in 2021, the data of the ecosystem is obviously not bright enough. Especially for the daily active users on the chain, Solana's daily active users in 2021 were basically in the range of tens of thousands of addresses, and it was not until 2022 that this data broke through to more than 100,000. And this data of Sui has changed dramatically recently. Before April of this year, the daily active addresses on Sui's chain were similar to Solana in 2021, averaging tens of thousands of daily active users. After experiencing the "blessing" of SPAM spam in April, Sui's number of daily active addresses on the chain began to surge to more than one million, and even in the cold market stage in August, it remained above 400,000. Recently, it has ushered in a substantial increase again, and the number of daily active addresses has exceeded one million again.
In the argument of Sui bulls, one indicator that has been mentioned many times is that Sui's TPS peak can reach 297,000 transactions, while Solana's maximum peak is 65,000 transactions. However, judging from the current daily TPS, Sui's TPS data is still lower than Solana's data level in July 2021.
Looking at the chain as a whole, Sui’s activity is significantly better than Solana in July 2021, which does provide an argument for Sui to become the next Solana.
4. Potential Catalyst
Recently, many new application scenarios have emerged in DeFi. It is not limited to early trading and lending. New trends such as double pledge, liquid pledge, native yield, new stablecoin solutions, and tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) make the ecosystem more vibrant. What's more exciting is that new infrastructure is being built continuously. What caught my attention at the moment is on-chain credit default swaps (CDS) and fixed rate/term loans built on existing lending infrastructure.
Since the end of 2023, we have witnessed a resurgence in DeFi activity as a new wave of DeFi protocols emerged. First, looking at the total value locked (TVL) in the crypto ecosystem, we notice that momentum is starting to pick up after a long period of plateauing. From $41 billion in October 2023, TVL has almost tripled, reaching a local high of $118 billion in June 2024, before falling back to current levels of around $85 billion. While this is still below the all-time high (ATH), it is undoubtedly a significant upward trend, which may be the first wave of a long-term upward trend in TVL.
Another interesting metric is the DEX to CEX spot volume ratio, which measures the relative trading activity between centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX). Once again, we notice a positive long-term trend, indicating that more and more trading volume is moving on-chain.
The DeFi sector’s influence in the entire crypto ecosystem has risen in recent months, and in a market where everyone is vying for attention, DeFi is attracting renewed attention.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
Solana is a high-performance blockchain platform dedicated to providing fast, secure and scalable solutions for decentralized applications and cryptocurrencies. The platform uses an innovative consensus algorithm, Proof of History, which can process up to tens of thousands of transactions per second while maintaining decentralization and security. Solana's goal is to achieve large-scale adoption of blockchain through its unique technological advantages, serving a variety of complex decentralized applications and global financial systems. The most noteworthy thing about Solana recently is that Solana has cooperated with Google Cloud to launch GameShift and Metaplex has launched a decentralized index and data availability network Metaplex Aura, which will have a positive impact on prices. .
Key projects:
io.net
io.net is a decentralized GPU network designed to improve the scalability, accessibility, and efficiency of computing. Mainly by aggregating GPU supply from underutilized resources, io.net has created a network that allows machine learning startups to obtain nearly unlimited computing power at a fraction of the cost of traditional clouds. It is a decentralized artificial intelligence computing and cloud platform. The most noteworthy thing about io.net recently is the strategic cooperation with TARS Protocol, which will have a positive impact on the development of AI and Web3 infrastructure. Recently, everyone's view on io.net is optimistic about its application prospects in the fields of distributed computing and AI, and the market sentiment is relatively optimistic.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction
1. WOLF (@Wolf0x67 /X)
LandWolf ($WOLF) is a newly launched meme coin on Solana that aims to unite Pepe’s fans with the wider crypto community. As one of the four protagonists of the Boys Club, LandWolf has gained great trust and support from the degen community. And because LandWolf is closely related to Pepe the Frog, $WOLF quickly gained the attention of the community.
2. POPCAT (@POPCATSOLANA /X)
$Popcat is an internet meme that originated in October 2020. In a series of videos, two images of a domestic shorthair cat named "Oatmeal" are shown. One image has its mouth closed, the other has its mouth open, and the second image has been edited to make its mouth "O". Recently, everyone's view on Popcat (SOL) is optimistic about its position and potential in the Solana ecosystem, and the market sentiment is relatively optimistic. The most noteworthy view is that Popcat is expected to re-hit the $1 mark, based on its position in the Solana ecosystem and trading activity.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. HIM(@____H_I_M____ /X)
$HIM is a catalyst token initiated by $NHI in the NHI ecosystem, which acts as a magnifying glass type community optimizer, directing three types of intelligence into an exponentially growing force for decentralized disclosure. It is designed as a hive mind/AI-driven automated intelligent analysis system that ensures neutral and immutable treatment of data and processes, and provides the greatest returns for those who choose to invest in undeniable truth. $HIM was launched on May 8, 2024.
2. $WIF (@dogwifcoin /X)
Dogwifhat ($WIF) is the latest sensation from the Solana ecosystem that has taken the crypto world by storm. Since its launch in November 2023, the meme coin has skyrocketed in value, increasing by a whopping 3,000%. With such astonishing growth, market analysts predict a bullish future for $WIF, with the potential to surpass established meme tokens like shiba inu and BONK.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
