Overnight, BTC retreated slightly to the 63k line. Dear readers, if you have experienced the last bull market in 2021, you must still remember the anonymous analyst PlanB , who made a "iron prediction" on June 20, 2021: break through 47k in August, break through 43k in September, break through 63k in October, break through 98k in November, and break through 135k in December.
Especially when the market hit his predictions accurately in August, September, and October 2021, he became famous all over the world. However, just when everyone was ignited by the bull market rhythm he gave, the market suddenly went silent. In the end, at the end of 2021, BTC stopped at 69k and failed to reach 98k, and of course it failed to break through 100k and reach the 135k (135,000) he predicted.
The bull market is charging, and there is a great risk of being stuck at high levels. However, the last round of bull market should be thanked to my country's crackdown on mining, which flattened the bull market process, resulting in the fact that even if it stood at the highest point of $69,000, it would be untied in March 2024, just two years later. Imagine if it were not so, and the bull market really rushed to $135,000 or even $150,000, it would inevitably mean that someone bought at $130,000-150,000, and the time to untie the trap might have to wait another year or two.
From the perspective of the power law price corridor, the lower track at the end of 2026 is exactly $70,000. In other words, in the most pessimistic scenario, those who are stuck at the top of the mountain in 2021 will have a high probability of being completely unstuck by the end of 2026. What if they are stuck at $150,000? Then it will take until the end of 2029 for the lower track to rise to $170,000.
However, PlanB does not believe in power law. He has been touting the S2F model he invented (which is actually a type of power law model). The predictions of this model are more radical than those of power law.
Back then, PlanB was criticized for the last two digits being wrong. Coupled with the precipitous decline in the bear market, he became depressed and announced his retirement. However, with the recovery of this round of market, he is back.
On September 25, PlanB made a firm prediction based on his model for the bull market in 2024-2025 and even the bear market in 2026-2027. Here are his points:
October 2024: A typical month of price increase. BTC 70,000 USD.
November: Trump wins the election, ending the current administration’s Biden (President)/Harris (Vice President)/Warren (Senator Elizabeth Warren)/Gensler (SEC Chairman Gary Gensler) war on crypto. BTC $100,000.
December: ETFs see massive inflows. BTC $150,000.
January 2025: Crypto people/enterprises return to the United States. BTC 200,000 dollars.
February: Power Law fans sell off. BTC $150,000.
March: Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries have legalized BTC. BTC is $300,000.
April: The United States under Trump's leadership began to build strategic BTC reserves. BTC 400,000 dollars.
May: Other countries outside Europe join the reserve race. BTC 500,000 USD.
June: Some AIs began to use BTC for automated arbitrage trading. BTC 600,000 dollars.
July or December: FOMO (fear of missing out) is fierce. BTC reaches the historical high of $1 million in this cycle.
2026: High-level distribution stage. BTC retreats to $500,000.
2027: Bear market. BTC bottoms at $200,000.
Comment: The core idea of PlanB's prediction is that the current bull market can reach $1 million. The upper limit of the power law model by the end of 2025 is only $500,000. Moreover, many models based on the revised data of the lower high point in 2021 have lowered it to $200,000 or even lower. Obviously, PlanB is radical.
Second, the reasons that PlanB made up for these numbers are more like a kind of filler, which is a bit rough, so that by the second half of 2024, there is nothing left to make up, so it has to be left blank. So, don’t think that his predictions are "based on fundamentals", that is all a trick. It is just a pure "shill" based on numbers.
Third, PlanB is secretly mocking the power law faction by selling at $200,000 in early 2025, thus missing out on the subsequent bull market. Maybe this is his "satisfaction point"? After all, human beings are very strange animals psychologically. Sometimes they regard proving themselves right as more important and more satisfying than making money.
This is actually what Chinese culture calls "face". When investing, it is better to be "shameless". Otherwise, you will be easily aroused by the criticism of others, and be kidnapped by morality, saving face but losing substance. If you save face but lose substance, you will eventually lose both face and substance. But if you ignore face and hold on to substance, you will often get both face and substance. Remember this.
Think about it calmly. Can others' criticism of you have any impact on your position? No. However, if you get angry and doubt yourself because of others' accusations and doubts, it is very likely that your next operation will be irrational and uncalm, causing you to suffer setbacks or even failure. And your setbacks and failures will just make those who provoked you with words succeed and get what they wanted.
No matter how pleasant or harsh someone's words are, they cannot directly affect your position and profit and loss, but can only affect your heart, and transmit this force through your heart to your hands, ultimately affecting your position and profit and loss. Therefore, to be a strong investor, the most important thing is to be able to remain calm when facing other people's words. If your heart is not moved, then your heart will be full of light.
"The power of the sky is no greater than the sun, the power of the earth is no greater than electricity, and the power of man is no greater than the mind. The mind is the root of all forces and the original force that forms all things in the world. The Buddha said: When the mind arises, all things arise; when the mind ceases, all things cease. The power of the mind is so great that it must be observed."
According to the power law model (original unrevised version), the lower track is $50,000 at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the middle track is $150,000 (less than) and the upper track is $500,000 (more). The range of 15-50 is the target range of the bull market. As for whether there will be a breakthrough of the power law corridor, perhaps we can only say that we are happy to see it happen.
Models are models, and trading is trading. There is a world of difference between them. Whether it is the power law model or the PlanB model, they are just mechanically applied to the model. When they see that PlanB says that the stock will rise to a certain level, they start to increase leverage and open long positions. Then, liquidation is a foregone conclusion. It is a bet that is destined to lose, and PlanB cannot be blamed.
For those who are financially independent and hoard BTC, the bull market is a good opportunity to withdraw living expenses. According to the general standard of 4% introduced in the article "How many BTCs can I save to retire early?" on July 29, 2024, the surge in the bull market will greatly increase the amount of living expenses that can be withdrawn under the same proportion: a 100% increase is equivalent to withdrawing double the living expenses, which can support 2 years of expenses, enough to survive the bear market and avoid cutting losses at the bottom of the bear market, thereby losing more BTC.
Taking the example in the above article of Jiaolian as an example, assuming that your annual living expenses are 200,000 RMB (if you have a house and a car without a loan, this expense is almost enough in any city in China), the financial freedom level is 5 million RMB equivalent to the BTC position at 4%. In other words, you currently have a BTC position worth 5 million RMB (calculated at the current price of 60,000 dollars).
Assume that by 2025, after BTC doubles to more than $120,000, you start to withdraw living expenses in batches. Sell 1% of the total BTC position in 4 batches each time (based on BTC). Due to the price increase, you will eventually withdraw more than 400,000 RMB. This 400,000 RMB is enough to sustain your life until 2027, survive the bear market, and usher in the next round of recovery.
Some people may ask, what if BTC continues to rise to 240,000, 480,000 or even higher after selling 120,000 dollars? The answer is that the living expenses are withdrawn for consumption. Once withdrawn, you will never own these BTC. No longer imagine the profit or loss of this part.
Some people may ask, can we raise more, such as 8%, of which 4% is for living expenses and 4% is for buy the dips of the bear market? The answer is no. The extra 4% is speculation. Speculation is risky. You may taste sweetness or bitterness. Of course, if you know what you are doing and are willing to take risks, then no one can stop you, right?
Someone may ask again, what if I increase my position during the fixed investment? Can I withdraw and increase my position at the same time? The answer is, yes. But you can transfer money from one hand to the other, keep a financial account, and then offset each other to see whether you need to net buy or net sell. In fact, you only need to operate the difference. For example, according to the plan, you plan to invest 200,000 RMB in 2025, and you need to withdraw 400,000 RMB. After the offset, you only need to withdraw 200,000 RMB. Just be aware that the investment is based on fiat currency, while the withdrawal is based on BTC. The difference delta also changes with market fluctuations. Just make sure you have a clear account.
Finally, if you don’t need to make living expenses in the off-site market, and you don’t need to withdraw from the market and lose your BTC position, then if you want to operate the so-called bull market escape, it is pure speculation. Speculation is risky, so you have to rely on yourself and accept failure calmly.
There is another worse possibility, that is, this round of bull market is going to be strong, and BTC has not even doubled. Then should we withdraw it? According to the principle of discipline, we still have to withdraw it. Can we not live and eat? However, we will lose more BTC positions, which is really miserable. At this time, we can see the benefits of OTC cash flow. The difference may become a net investment, which will allow you to calmly deal with it and buy low and sell high when the market does not meet your expectations.
Having said so much, it is just one truth. The secret to winning in investment is not to predict and gamble, but to make full deductions and plans to ensure that no matter how the market goes, it is under your control. At this time, the market is like the unpredictable and difficult to defeat Monkey King, but you, as an investor, are mature like Tathagata Buddha. No matter how Monkey King struggles, he still cannot escape from your palm.
