Master Advisor Discusses Hot Topics:
Today, the Master Advisor wrote an essay and made a bold prediction that the pace of Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may synchronize over the next year.
Specifically: 1) The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates until the middle of next year or the third quarter, when it will pause. 2) Bitcoin will break through its previous high in October or November, initiating a major uptrend, and reach its cycle peak in the third quarter of next year.
First, let's look at the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace. Fed members have clearly stated that the current interest rate level is far above the neutral rate, so they will make gradual, small cuts without disrupting the market, until they reach what they consider the neutral rate, then pause to observe economic data. Based on the current pace, this is likely to happen sometime in the middle of next year or the third quarter, and the market will expect a pause in rate cuts at that time.
As for Bitcoin, we can't ignore its magical 4-year cycle. Based on this cycle theory, the peak of this Bitcoin cycle is also likely to come in the second half of next year. So, combining these factors, Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace may synchronize. Perhaps this time next year will be the peak of this Bitcoin cycle - looking forward to seeing how it plays out. This is just a record of the Master Advisor's essay. I'll revisit this article in a year to help improve myself!
Master Advisor Analyzes the Trend:
Bitcoin attempted a trend reversal yesterday, but after breaking the trend, it encountered resistance at the highs and formed a large bearish candle.
Additionally, after reaching $66K, the appearance of profit-taking sell orders in the adjustment range led to the current large bearish candle.
The formation of a large bearish candle indicates strong selling pressure, so the rebound will require stronger buying support, so it may still take some time before the next uptrend.
Currently, the probability of a technical rebound followed by another decline is relatively high. If the candlestick does not have a lower wick, a continued downtrend may occur.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: $65,200
Second Resistance: $65,800
During a technical rebound, the price may temporarily rebound to the first resistance level. But if there is no trading volume before rebounding to the first resistance, there may be further adjustments in the $64,800-$64,900 range.
The psychological support at $65,000 has already been breached, so the Master Advisor will treat $65,000 as strong resistance.
Support Levels:
First Support: $64,350
Second Support: $63,700
The important short-term support is near the previous high support, which is around $64,300, so a technical rebound can be expected. If $64,000 is set as the support, this will be a relatively ideal risk-reward ratio area.
If the price breaks below $64,300 and the 60-day moving average, it may drop to the $63,000 range. It is recommended to set support levels in stages and trade gradually.
Today's Trading Suggestions:
In today's trading, due to the formation of a large bearish candle, further downside risks should be watched out for, while also trying to capture technical rebounds.
Expect the large bearish candle to form a lower wick, and set the psychological support at $64,000. Look for suitable long entry points with a good risk-reward ratio.
9/30 Master Advisor's Short-term Preset Orders:
Long Entry: $63,700-$64,200 in batches, stop loss at 500 points, target $65,200-$65,800
Short Entry: $65,200-$65,700 in batches, stop loss at 500 points, target $64,350-$63,700
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