As skepticism in the crypto market grows, Bitcoin prices may struggle to break through previous highs in the near future

The data on stablecoins in the Chinese market, the participation of retail investors, and the skepticism in the BTC derivatives market indicate that the BTC price may have difficulty breaking through its previous price highs in the near term. On September 28, the BTC price closed at its highest level in two months, approaching the $66,000 mark. This rise coincided with the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high on September 26 and was driven by strong economic indicators in the Chinese market. However, various indicators suggest that the current BTC market has not yet entered a bull market cycle. The market's skepticism casts a shadow over the recent rebound in BTC prices. Investors are doubtful about BTC's ability to sustain its upward momentum, mainly due to the previous failure to break through the $70,000 level and the growing concerns about a global economic recession. This concern often leads investors to re-evaluate their risk market positioning strategies. While this sentiment may not directly lead to investors selling their risk assets, it creates a bearish sentiment that makes investors more susceptible to FUD, thereby suppressing the upward momentum of BTC. The current bullish trend in the stock market, particularly the new high in the S&P 500 index, does not necessarily mean that BTC will also break through its previous highs. Some analysts warn that the central bank's shift towards expansionary monetary policy may signal potential economic risks, but this does not necessarily mean that the market's economic bubble will be burst. Even in a downturn, large tech companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft can still maintain high profit margins and healthy balance sheets, allowing them to benefit from acquiring niche markets at discounted prices and facing less competition in hiring new employees and purchasing equipment (including microchips for AI). Despite the inflow of institutional capital, the Chinese stablecoin market still shows a bearish sentiment. The low premium on Chinese stablecoins over the past two weeks suggests a strong bearish sentiment in the market, which contrasts with the growing demand for BTC spot ETFs in the US. This trend also reinforces the bears' argument about the overall lack of investor confidence, which is also reflected in the BTC futures market. Even with BTC's price reaching $66,000 on September 29, the BTC futures premium remained around 6%, indicating that savvy investors have maintained a neutral position, hesitant to take decisive action due to fear of missing out. However, this lack of decisive action may provide the necessary confirmation for the bears, suggesting that market confidence is weakening.