Gold surge and the recovery of the cryptocurrency market
Recently, gold prices have continued to rise, breaking through historical highs. At the same time, Bitcoin has risen by $4,000 in the past week, and Ethereum has also risen by nearly $300. The crypto industry has experienced its best week since September. If this trend continues, Bitcoin's decline in September may be broken. Some analysts believe that this round of market conditions has just begun, and there may be a bigger outbreak in October and even the entire fourth quarter.
Factors driving Bitcoin's recent rise
- The Fed's interest rate cut opens the prelude to Bitcoin's rise
Recently, the Federal Reserve has implemented a radical interest rate cut policy, the first interest rate cut in four years, with an amplitude of 50 basis points, which exceeded market expectations. This move quickly pushed Bitcoin prices up sharply, breaking through the $62,000 mark.
- Gold prices soared
After the Fed's interest rate cut, gold prices also rose sharply, and now have exceeded $2,600. This year, it has risen by $540, making it the best year since 1979. As risk aversion heats up, Bitcoin, as digital gold, has also risen accordingly.
- Ethereum rebounds, market sentiment warms up
Ethereum has recently rebounded from the bottom, activating the entire ecosystem, improving market sentiment, and driving up various sectors, which has played a positive role in the stability of Bitcoin prices.
- Political support for the crypto industry
At a fundraising event in New York, a political candidate publicly expressed support for the crypto industry for the first time, saying that if elected, he would encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting consumers and investors. This statement was appreciated by people in the crypto industry.
For example:
Coinbase's policy director said that the candidate's crypto-friendly statement is significant.
The CEO of a well-known decentralized trading platform said that this public support for digital assets is a positive signal.
Analysts pointed out that the candidate's election may have a positive impact on Bitcoin.
The founder of an industry commented that although the candidate's support for the crypto industry came a little late, it still needs to catch up with other competitors.
Where will the crypto market go next? What do analysts think?
- Market performance and trading strategies
The co-founder of a well-known trading platform pointed out that Bitcoin has performed well in the recent period and believes that now is the right time to trade some popular currencies. This view is contrary to his previous remarks at a conference, when he mentioned that the market may crash after the interest rate cut and then enter a bull market, and predicted that Ethereum will perform well in the interest rate cut cycle.
- Similarity of historical trends
On-chain analysts said that Bitcoin's trend in 2024 is similar to that in 2016 and 2020. He mentioned that Bitcoin rose 61% in the fourth quarter of 2016, while it rose 171% in the same period of 2020. He is full of expectations for Bitcoin's future performance and raised the question of whether history will repeat itself.
- Market forecast
A market analysis released by a crypto research institution shows that Bitcoin is expected to hit a record high in the fourth quarter of 2024. The analysis mentioned that the current market structure has improved, and the continued issuance of stablecoins and the increase in futures leverage may become potential catalysts for a rebound at the end of the year. As the critical time window approaches, the possibility of a major breakthrough is also increasing.
- Bitcoin-gold exchange rate expectations
A senior chart analyst predicts that the exchange rate between Bitcoin and gold may rise by more than 400% in the next few years. He cited classic technical graphic analysis, pointing out that a pattern called an inverted head and shoulders pattern may support this extremely bullish expectation. When the price forms a series of troughs and breaks through the neckline, the price increase will be equivalent to the distance between the neckline and the deepest trough.
According to his analysis, it is expected that by 2025, the price of Bitcoin may be equal to 123 ounces of gold, an increase of more than 400% compared to the recent price.
- Conditions for the return of the bull market
According to the analysis of a financial index, if the closing price of Bitcoin breaks through the resistance level of $65,000, the bull market may return. Although there is still some distance from this goal, the possibility of a breakthrough in a short period of time still exists.
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