According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin used to have a "September Curse" that was almost certain to fall in September. From 2013 to mid-2023, Bitcoin fell eight times in September. However, in September this year, it finally closed up 7.29%. It was the best September performance since 2013.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin usually rises in October, and there will be an "Uptober market." From 2013 to mid-2023, Bitcoin only closed down twice in October, with the maximum increase of 60.79% and an average increase of 22%. , ended with gains in September this year, which is expected to lay the foundation for a strong rise in October.
Welcome to Uptober Quotes in October?
Lookonchain pointed out that historically, the five bull markets of Bitcoin all started in October, and the performance in October this year is worth looking forward to.
Spot On Chain, which accurately predicted that Bitcoin would close higher in September this year, said that according to its model, the upward trend will continue in the fourth quarter, and October is expected to be strong. The probability of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high this month is 69 %, the probability of Bitcoin price reaching $100,000 by the end of the year is 54%.
In September this year, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the People's Bank of China all announced interest rate cuts to support economic growth. Benefiting from the global wave of interest rate cuts, investors responded to the looser monetary environment, pushing up stocks, gold, Cryptocurrency prices have been boosted by bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
This October may be different
However, when the market is unanimously bullish, the opposite situation may often occur. Charlie Morris, founder of investment management company ByteTree, warned that the market's expectations for strong performance in October are too common and may have an adverse impact on investors:
Contrarian investors will always be wary of an idea that is too common, as commonplace means money has been invested before October.
However, ByteTree mentioned in the report that Bitcoin prices usually consolidate for about six months after the halving, and then hit a new high. The current trend is also consistent with this pattern. Given that this year’s halving occurred on April 19, if this pattern can If this continues, Bitcoin is expected to break new highs by the end of October.
However, Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, pointed out that options traders do not expect Bitcoin to see a larger rally until after the U.S. presidential election in November, and Bitcoin is expected to move further in the coming weeks. fall:
Spot prices fell below $65,000, and the volatility surface suggests the downward trend will continue into late October and November, when the market begins to favor call options over put option protection. Current positions suggest that people are optimistic about a post-election rally.
