Source: Coinmarketcap
Compiled by: Koala, Mars Finance
Hedge fund executives expect Bitcoin to hit an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election.
CK Zheng, co-founder of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, has made a bold prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), predicting that the leading cryptocurrency will hit a new all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024 regardless of the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. In an interview with Cointelegraph, CK Zheng stressed that neither of the two major candidates has proposed a viable solution to the United States’ growing national debt and fiscal deficit, a situation he believes will drive bullish sentiment for Bitcoin.
CK Zheng’s prediction is in line with historical trends, which show Bitcoin surging sharply in the fourth quarter. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has risen by more than 50% in the final quarter six times since 2013. With the confluence of macroeconomic factors and favorable market conditions, the hedge fund executive believes that BTC will surpass its previous all-time high by the end of 2024 or soon after.
Election uncertainty and US economic concerns drive bullish outlook for Bitcoin
With the U.S. presidential election around the corner, economic uncertainty looms. CK Zheng noted that neither candidate has put forward a specific plan to address the nation’s debt and deficit problems, which are likely to continue to worsen no matter who takes office. As U.S. debt continues to grow, investors may increasingly look to Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against traditional financial instability.
CK Zheng explained that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it an attractive safe-haven asset during times of macroeconomic uncertainty. He believes that the United States’ unresolved debt problems and potential economic turmoil will drive more investors to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency devaluation.
“Neither candidate has offered any real solutions to the growing debt and deficit. This uncertainty, combined with unresolved fiscal issues, is very bullish for Bitcoin,” CK Zheng noted in the interview. “Investors are looking for alternative assets, and Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive option.”
Bitcoin’s strong fourth quarter
Bitcoin’s historical performance in the fourth quarter supports Zheng’s bullish view. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has seen significant price increases in the fourth quarter on several occasions, with the cryptocurrency rising more than 50% in the final quarter of the year six times since 2013.
The seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter has become a recurring trend in the Bitcoin market, driven by year-end institutional allocations, renewed retail interest, and general market optimism. CK Zheng expects 2024 to be no exception, with macro tailwinds providing additional momentum.
While Bitcoin has experienced periods of volatility and price corrections in 2024, its long-term upward trajectory remains intact. If the fourth quarter trend follows its historical pattern, Bitcoin could surge again, potentially surpassing its all-time high of $73,666 set in March 2024.
The impact of Fed policy
Another key factor that makes CK Zheng optimistic about Bitcoin is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. In response to economic challenges and efforts to curb inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has made multiple adjustments to interest rates. Recently, the Fed implemented a 50 basis point rate cut, and many analysts, including CK Zheng, believe that this move could be very beneficial to Bitcoin and other risky assets.
CK Zheng explained that if the U.S. economy achieves a "soft landing" — avoiding a severe recession while keeping inflation in check — Bitcoin could benefit. Rate cuts, aimed at stimulating economic activity, could push more investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin, as lower rates make traditional savings vehicles less attractive.
“Historically, Bitcoin has thrived during periods of loose monetary policy. If the U.S. economy avoids a recession and benefits from these rate cuts, this could reignite interest in risky assets like Bitcoin,” added CK Zheng.
The possibility of a soft landing coupled with rate cuts suggests a bullish scenario for Bitcoin, further supporting CK Zheng’s prediction of new all-time highs in the coming months.
Why the US election may not impact Bitcoin's performance
While elections tend to trigger market volatility, CK Zheng believes that the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will have limited impact on Bitcoin’s long-term trend. Regardless of who wins, unresolved debt and deficit issues are likely to persist, maintaining a favorable environment for Bitcoin as a decentralized asset.
CK Zheng stressed that the broader macroeconomic landscape is the driving force behind Bitcoin's performance, not political leadership. "Bitcoin's operation has nothing to do with political outcomes. The bigger problem is the U.S. economy, and neither candidate has proposed a clear path forward to address fiscal issues. That's why I believe Bitcoin will hit a record high no matter who wins the election."
Bitcoin’s limited correlation with traditional macro variables such as stocks and bonds also supports CK Zheng’s view. As more investors view Bitcoin as a store of value, it is increasingly seen as “digital gold” — a hedge against fiat currency devaluation and economic instability.
Potential risks and challenges
Despite the positive outlook, there are still potential risks that could affect Bitcoin’s performance in the fourth quarter. Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant factor, with both U.S. lawmakers and international regulators paying more attention to cryptocurrencies. New policies or regulatory developments could bring short-term volatility to the cryptocurrency market.
In addition, the global macroeconomic environment could also pose challenges. While the Fed’s rate cuts are expected to boost risk assets, unforeseen economic shocks, such as geopolitical tensions or a further economic slowdown, could change the landscape.
CK Zheng acknowledges these risks but remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects: “Every asset faces risks, but Bitcoin has proven to be resilient. It continues to attract interest from institutional investors and serves as a reliable hedge against economic instability.”
Conclusion: Bitcoin on its way to a new all-time high
Bitcoin may be on the verge of a record high as the U.S. presidential election approaches and economic uncertainty continues to rise. CK Zheng, an executive at the ZX Squared Capital hedge fund, said that unresolved debt issues, favorable historical trends in the fourth quarter, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy all point to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
While political outcomes may not directly impact Bitcoin’s long-term performance, broader macroeconomic factors could drive investors toward decentralized assets. With Bitcoin’s strong fourth quarter performance and favorable economic conditions, the cryptocurrency is poised for significant gains in the coming months.
