Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at Hashkey Group, said that historically October and November tend to be the two months with the best returns in a year, which means there may be a small bull market in the next two months.
(Data source: coinglass)
Since 2013, in the 11 October yield statistics, Bitcoin has recorded 9 increases and 2 decreases, with an average increase of 20.66%. The median increase ranks first among all months, reaching 21.2%, which can be called the "Golden October" of the crypto industry. Interestingly, the yield in September this year was 7.29%, the best level in history. Even if we consider the impact of the US election on the global economy, the increase in 2020 was as high as 27.7%, and the increase in 2016 was 14.71%.
(Data source: Cryptorank)
Even for Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, October and November were good months. The average increase in October was 6.51%, and the average increase in November was 2.43%. Historical data shows that starting from October, the following six months can be considered a small bull market for ETH, with positive increases, especially from January to May. Except for April, which increased by 20.9%, other months exceeded 30%.
The monetary policies of global economies have also provided sufficient support in terms of liquidity. First, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut on September 18, the first interest rate cut in more than four years, and the target range was lowered to 4.75% to 5%, officially opening a period of monetary easing. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a 0.5% to 5.25% reduction in the base interest rate on Thursday morning (19th) Hong Kong time, effective immediately. Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that when the US interest rate is lowered and the Hong Kong interest rate is also lowered, it will be beneficial to the operation of Hong Kong companies and have a positive impact on the asset market. The Chinese government has also adopted a fiscal stimulus policy of lowering interest rates and reserve requirements, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market.
However, it is worth noting that the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated recently. On October 1, Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel, and Israel launched air strikes on Hezbollah and Houthi forces in Lebanon. These events may lead to a decline in the recent financial market. While we are optimistic about the subsequent market, we must also guard against the negative impact of geopolitics.
