Odaily星球日报讯 10 月 4 日周五 20：30，美国将公布 9 月非农就业报告。这是美联储以 50 个基点打开降息大门之后的首份报告，也是 11 月会议之前两份非农数据中的其中一份。随着通胀回落，就业市场的表现重新成为美联储最关心的问题。 根据路透社的调查，9 月非农就业人数料将新增 14 万，远低于过去 12 个月平均每月增加的 20.2 万；预计失业率将保持在 4.2%不变。事实证明，面对美联储加息，虽然美国经济出奇地具有弹性，避免了广泛预测的衰退，但就业市场已经逐渐失去了动力。从 6 月到 8 月，平均每月仅净新增 11.6 万个新工作岗位，这是自 2020 年年中以来最低的三个月均值。 美联储上个月降息 50 个基点至 4.75%-5.00%区间，这是自 2020 年以来首次降息，目的就是缓解对劳动力市场健康状况的日益担忧。美联储主席鲍威尔在 10 月 1 日凌晨的讲话中表示，不希望就业市场继续降温。分析师预计，美联储将在 11 月和 12 月再次降息，但幅度仍不确定。鲍威尔称，如果经济表现符合预期，今年还将两次降息 25 个基点。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 10 月 4 日周五 20：30，美国将公布 9 月非农就业报告。这是美联储以 50 个基点打开降息大门之后的首份报告，也是 11 月会议之前两份非农数据中的其中一份。随着通胀回落，就业市场的表现重新成为美联储最关心的问题。根据路透社的调查，9 月非农就业人数料将新增 14 万，远低于过去 12 个月平均每月增加的 20.2 万；预计失业率将保持在 4.2%不变。事实证明，面对美联储加息，虽然美国经济出奇地具有弹性，避免了广泛预测的衰退，但就业市场已经逐渐失去了动力。从 6 月到 8 月，平均每月仅净新增 11.6 万个新工作岗位，这是自 2020 年年中以来最低的三个月均值。美联储上个月降息 50 个基点至 4.75%-5.00%区间，这是自 2020 年以来首次降息，目的就是缓解对劳动力市场健康状况的日益担忧。美联储主席鲍威尔在 10 月 1 日凌晨的讲话中表示，不希望就业市场继续降温。分析师预计，美联储将在 11 月和 12 月再次降息，但幅度仍不确定。鲍威尔称，如果经济表现符合预期，今年还将两次降息 25 个基点。（金十）

路透社调查9月美国非农就业人数料将新增14万，美联储或不急于降息

Odaily Planet Daily Report, October 4th, Friday 8:30 PM, the US will release the September non-farm payroll report. This is the first report since the Federal Reserve opened the door to a 50-basis-point rate cut, and it is one of the two non-farm data releases before the November meeting. As inflation has eased, the performance of the job market has once again become the Federal Reserve's biggest concern.

According to a Reuters survey, the September non-farm payroll is expected to have increased by 140,000, far lower than the average monthly increase of 202,000 over the past 12 months; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It has been proven that, faced with the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, although the US economy has been surprisingly resilient and avoided the widely predicted recession, the job market has gradually lost momentum. From June to August, the average monthly net increase was only 116,000 new jobs, the lowest three-month average since mid-2020.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points to the 4.75%-5.00% range last month, the first rate cut since 2020, with the aim of easing growing concerns about the health of the labor market. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a speech in the early hours of October 1st that he does not want the job market to continue to cool. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in November and December, but the magnitude is still uncertain. Powell said that if the economy performs as expected, there will be two more 25-basis-point rate cuts this year.

Odaily Odaily News: On Friday, October 4, at 20:30, the United States will release the September non-farm payrolls report. This is the first report after the Federal Reserve opened the door to interest rate cuts by 50 basis points, and it is also one of the two non-farm data before the November meeting. With inflation falling, the performance of the job market has once again become the Fed&#39;s top concern. According to a Reuters survey, non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 140,000 in September, far lower than the average monthly increase of 202,000 in the past 12 months; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It turns out that in the face of the Fed&#39;s rate hikes, although the US economy has been surprisingly resilient and avoided a widely predicted recession, the job market has gradually lost momentum. From June to August, an average of only 116,000 new jobs were added each month, the lowest three-month average since mid-2020. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00% last month, the first rate cut since 2020, with the aim of alleviating growing concerns about the health of the labor market. In his speech in the early hours of October 1, Fed Chairman Powell said he did not want the job market to continue to cool. Analysts expect the Fed to cut interest rates again in November and December, but the magnitude remains uncertain. Powell said that if the economy performs as expected, there will be two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year. (Jinshi)

Reuters poll: US non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 140,000 in September, and the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut interest rates

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 28 was 225,000, expected to be 220,000, and the previous value was revised from 218,000 to 219,000. The four-week average of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 28 was 224,250, and the previous value was revised from 224,750 to 225,000. The number of continuing jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 21 was 1,826,000, expected to be 1,832,000, and the previous value was revised from 1,834,000 to 1,827,000. (Gold Ten)

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 28 was 225,000, which was expected to be 220,000. The previous value was revised to 219,000.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: A strategist at a German commercial bank stated that as long as the non-farm payroll data is generally consistent with a soft landing, the Federal Reserve does not appear to be under pressure to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points, and the strong demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions has also subsided. (Jinshi)

Commerzbank: Non-farm data may determine whether the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points

According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting by 25 basis points in November is 62.8%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 37.2%.