On October 4, Gene Goldman, chief investment officer of Cetera Investment Management, said: "The non-farm data was amazing. The results were far better than expected. The unemployment rate fell, which shows that the economy is strong. Today's news confirms that the fundamentals of the economy are solid. I am cautious about the initial moves in the stock market today because the dollar is strengthening and bond yields are also moving higher. All the data this week pointed to a strong economy. This put the final nail in the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points. Another point that the market should pay attention to is that average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, which was enough to push the year-on-year figure to 4%, a 5-month high."
James Knightley, an analyst at ING Bank, said that the non-farm data was undoubtedly strong, but there were also unfavorable factors. Our basic assumption remains that the US economy can achieve a soft landing, provided that the fundamentals of the US economy are good and respond well to interest rate cuts and a clearer political environment after the election. Nevertheless, we believe that the risk of slower economic growth and lower interest rates remains, given that households believe that the deterioration in the job market (even if today's data does not confirm this) may lead consumers to spend more cautiously.
"The non-farm payrolls were much stronger than expected, and obviously that put to rest concerns that the economy could go into negative territory soon," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. "It basically tells us that economic activity in the fourth quarter is likely to remain at a steady pace. The fact that hourly wages were up just 13 cents is good news for the Fed. It was a blowout report, so it was a surprise, but I also think it could slow the pace of rate cuts."
Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said: "By any standard, the non-farm payrolls report is a bombshell. I think the scenario of the U.S. economy not landing has suddenly become more credible. This is a beautiful report both overall and in its internal details. Over the past three months, job opportunities have continued to increase, the unemployment rate has gradually declined, and the participation rate has remained stable, all of which indicates that this is not a statistical anomaly that may be eliminated in the coming months. So what this ultimately means is that Treasury yields have surged at the front end of the curve, expectations of rate cuts are retreating, and the expectation now is that the Fed will be more cautious in easing policy." (Jinshi)
