Affected by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has recently fallen from around $66,500 to a low of $59,828. Last night, it staged a battle to defend $60,000. It fell below the $60,000 mark several times within four hours and then recovered. The long-short tug-of-war was quite intense. It was not until after 1 a.m. that there was a significant increase, breaking through $61,000 at one point. As of the time of writing, the price was quoted at $61,350, up 0.98% in the past 24 hours.
The decline of Bitcoin is not a bad thing for investors, because the current market decline can bring new buying opportunities to everyone, because the general election competition between Trump and Harris for the US presidency is about to come. As a Republican candidate who has publicly supported cryptocurrencies many times, Trump's chances of winning are equal to Harris, which also indicates that the market may usher in a wave of rising prices.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H chart, the price of Bitcoin is gradually approaching the middle track after rebounding from the lower track. This indicates that Bitcoin may be about to test the middle track to determine whether it can serve as resistance. If it can effectively stabilize and break through the middle track, the upward trend will be strengthened; on the contrary, if it encounters resistance at the middle track, a downward price correction may occur.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the KDJ three-line value is radiating upward, and the current position is around 50. It is particularly noteworthy that the J line has broken through, while the K line and the D line are also continuing to rise. This indicates that the oversold state of the market is about to end in the short term, indicating that the rebound market is about to start.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, although the DIF line and the DEA line are running below the 0 axis, the DIF line is gradually approaching the DEA line, and there is a trend of forming a golden cross. At the same time, the MACD red bar chart is growing, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening and the buyer's power is gradually increasing. This sign also supports the view that the market is about to rebound.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the current market shows a short-term bullish trend. The price of Bitcoin has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Band and is close to the upper track, indicating that the market is entering a rising phase. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure of the upper track of the Bollinger Band. If the price continues to fail to break through, there is a risk of falling back to the middle track or the lower track. At the same time, the gradual closing of the Bollinger Band track indicates that the market volatility is reduced and it may enter a sideways state in the short term.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the K-line value and the D-line value are near 70, which is in the overbought area, indicating that the price of Bitcoin has reached a relative high point in the short term and may enter a consolidation or correction phase at any time.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line has golden cross the DEA line upward, indicating that the market is currently in an upward trend. The MACD red bar chart shows that the bulls are dominant, but the current red bar chart is gradually shortening, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening and may enter a sideways fluctuation state in the short term.
Comprehensive analysis shows that Bitcoin is likely to continue to rebound in the short term, especially as MACD and KDJ show bullish signals. However, due to the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, the market's rise is resisted and pulled back.
To sum up, the following suggestions are given for reference
It is recommended to long on Bitcoin when it pulls back to 60400-60600, with a target of 62300-62500 and a defense of 60000.
It is recommended to short Bitcoin at 62300-62500, with a target of 60000 and a defense of 62800. (Also pay attention to the sharp fluctuations caused by the release of the September non-agricultural employment data at 8:30 pm)
Writing time: (2024-10-04, 19:00)
