The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last night (4th) showed that the U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding market expectations of 147,000. The previous value was also revised upward from 142,000 to 159,000. The labor market The performance was surprisingly strong.
At the same time, the unemployment rate also fell to 4.1% in September, lower than expected and the previous value of 4.2%.
The probability of a 1% rate cut in November rises to 92.4%
U.S. non-farm payrolls data for September showed an unusually strong job market, which also weakened market concerns about a U.S. economic recession since the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a sharp 2-digit interest rate cut last month. And before the non-farm payrolls data was released, Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett, known as "Wall Street's most accurate strategist", has predicted that if non-farm employment increases between 125,000 and 175,000 in September, this will support market optimism for a soft landing of the U.S. economy. expectations and keep U.S. bond yields within a certain range, thereby driving risk assets higher.
In addition, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch tool , after the release of non-farm payroll data in September, the market expects the probability that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 1 yard in November quickly climbed to 92.4%, while the probability of a 2-yard rate cut fell to 7.6%. %.
However, it should be noted that Pepperstone market strategist Michael Brown also reminded investors that although the employment data is strong, it is not enough to change the Fed's interest rate cut path, and the recent geopolitical situation in the Middle East is turbulent, and global risks may be rising, so investors Caution is also required.
Further reading: Worst case scenario? Iranian oil facilities may become targets of Israeli retaliation, a perfect storm is brewing
All four major U.S. stock indexes rise
Encouraged by the non-agricultural data, U.S. stocks showed rising momentum after opening last night, and the four major indexes also rose collectively:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.047%, or 27.83 points, to close at 42,039.42 points;
- S&P 500 Index: rose 0.13%, or 7.16 points, to close at 5,707.1 points;
- Nasdaq: rose 0.38%, or 70.52 points, to close at 17,984.12 points;
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: rose 0.72%, or 37.67 points, to close at 5,162.88 points.
Bitcoin roller coaster ride
On the cryptocurrency side, Bitcoin fell to US$59,800 a few days ago due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. However, after the non-agricultural data was released, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to a maximum of US$62,010. However, selling pressure subsequently emerged. At the time of writing, Bitcoin It once fell back to a low of $61,051 but has rebounded to the 62,000 level, with an increase of 0.8% in the past 24 hours.
Ethereum has a similar trend, with a price of $2,362 at the time of writing, an increase of 0.96% in the past 24 hours.
