Tech pioneer Elon Musk recently sparked strong interest in decentralized prediction market Polymarket, after claiming that the site could predict the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election more accurately than traditional polls.
Musk’s comments appeared on social media platform X, which he owns. Over the past few months, the billionaire has increasingly expressed support for US presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump.
Recently, in a speech at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, Musk spoke in support of Trump.
Polymarket
According to Polymarket, at the time of Musk's October 6 post, Trump was leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by about three percentage points.
Elon Musk said Polymarket is more accurate than traditional polling in a social media post. Source: Elon Musk
“Trump currently leads Kamala by 3% in the betting markets. More accurate than the polls, since there is real money at stake.”
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market that allows users to bet USD Coin (USDC) on the outcome of an event.
According to TinTucBitcoin, the US presidential election was the most active event in the history of the site. Some analysts even called the growing popularity of prediction markets a public good.
It's unclear how "accurate" Polymarket will be for the 2024 US presidential election.
While Musk and some analysts argue that betting on money encourages a more accurate market, there is also an argument that predicting financial winners doesn't necessarily align with a person's political leanings.
An individual may, for example, pledge to vote for one candidate while predicting or even betting that the opponent will ultimately win.
In related news, Polymarket activity regarding the identity of Bitcoin (BTC) founder and legend Satoshi Nakamoto appears to have peaked ahead of the HBO reveal on October 8.
At the time of this writing, the total value of bets has reached nearly $400,000, with deceased American computer scientist Len Sassaman leading by a large margin.
