Donald Trump’s odds of winning the U.S. presidential election on Polymarket climbed to over 53% on Monday, overtaking Vice President Kamala Harris, who held a slight lead last week.
The surge has fueled speculation about potential manipulation, centering on a user known as "Fredi9999," who has amassed over 7.8 million Trump shares, making them the platform’s largest holder, data shows.
The user has drawn attention to their methodical strategy of accumulating shares, particularly in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.
Some market participants speculate that Fredi could be tied to billionaire Elon Musk, given the timing of large bets coinciding with pro-Trump statements from Musk’s social media accounts.
While there is no direct evidence to support this theory, observers say the user’s substantial bankroll and outsized interest in Trump align with the profile of a fervent, wealthy supporter of the former president.
“It’s hard to know for sure if someone simply has a high conviction in Trump’s chances or if there’s a strategic attempt to shift the market’s perception,” John Stefanidis, CEO and co-founder of predictions and wagering platform Real World Gaming, told Decrypt.
“Even so, Polymarket’s nature means that over time, things tend to even out as genuine sentiment prevails,” Stefanidis added.
Polymarket’s mechanics are simple. The price of a share, ranging from $0 to $1, reflects the probability of a given outcome. For example, if a candidate's share costs 63 cents, the market assigns them a 63% chance of winning.
Traders can buy shares of the candidate they believe will win, and when the event concludes, the winning candidate's shares rise to $1. Lower odds result in cheaper shares, and vice versa.
In any case, the rise in Trump’s prospects on the platform is not currently backed by polling data or significant campaign developments. Instead, it's being fueled by speculative betting and emotional sentiment among certain users, according to some.
“Trump has an abnormal number of accounts that only vote for Trump across the board, regardless of how irrational the bet is.” Adam Cochran, a crypto fund Cinneamhain Ventures partner, tweeted on Monday.
He added bettors appear driven by strong personal beliefs rather than strategic market behavior, creating a feedback loop that skews market results.
Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and an advisor to Polymarket, partially echoed that sentiment, attributing the recent surge to a combination of market boredom and speculative trading.
“A couple of people have asked me what’s behind this, and my theory is that there isn’t much,” Silver wrote in a newsletter on Monday. “Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own, and that can especially happen when traders are bored and angsty because they’re in the doldrums.”
He acknowledged the possibility of people previously betting to influence public perception but noted that it’s less likely now due to the liquidity in prediction markets. In other words, it’s become too expensive to artificially hold a position at a higher bet for too long, Silver wrote.
Instead, most bets appear to be coming from “true Trump believers” or opportunistic traders, Silver said.
