Weekly Review
This week, from September 30 to October 7, the highest price of BTC was around $65,618 and the lowest price was close to $59,828, with a fluctuation range of about 8.6%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 62,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• analyze:
1. 59000-63000, about 1.94 million pieces;
2. 64000-68000, about 900,000 pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability that the price will not break through 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Important news
Economic News
1. Biden said he was considering sanctions on Iranian oil, and oil prices gave up gains;
2. The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 20 basis points to 3.91%. After the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase halved their expectations for the Fed's November rate cut;
3. JPMorgan Chase: Lowered the Fed's November rate cut expectations to 25 basis points. Previously, it was expected that the FOMC would cut interest rates by 50 basis points;
4. The non-farm data performance was amazing. The scenario of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in November was almost completely ruled out by the market;
5. The US non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding expectations, the unemployment rate fell, and wage growth was strong;
6. The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 254,000 in September, the largest increase since March and far exceeding the expected value of 150,000. The previous value was revised from 142,000 to 159,000;
7. The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% in September, compared with expectations of 4.2% and the previous value of 4.2%;
8. On October 6, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.4%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.75%-5.00% is 2.6%.
Encrypted ecological news
1. According to Farside Investors data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has accumulated a net inflow of US$18.53 billion since its launch;
2. QCP: Still optimistic about Bitcoin's strong performance in October, CPI data will be the focus this Thursday;
3. As of the week of October 6, NFT trading volume was close to $85 million, the highest level since the end of August this year;
4. On October 7, developers claimed that the new Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) would reduce Ethereum’s block time by 33% and increase data capacity — thereby increasing overall throughput by 50%;
5. On October 7, New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) said that despite a "seasonally weak" third quarter, Bitcoin is still the best performing asset so far this year;
6. Coinbase executive: As cryptocurrency gains more support from both parties, Coinbase accelerates negotiations with traditional financial institutions;
Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
• New and destroyed chips on the chain • Large-scale net inflow and outflow of exchanges • Long-term participants’ holding structure • Total spot selling pressure
The new chips on the chain show that the market currently has a certain amount of new chips, which is more optimistic than in the past few weeks. This proves that the market has a lot of solid growth foundations and the fundamentals are still relatively good.
Although there has not been much large outflow (buying intention) recently, the large selling pressure has been reduced a lot. The selling pressure in the market has begun to weaken.
The overall holding ratio structure of long-term participants has now reached the level in May 2020, returning to the level at the beginning of this year.
This means that most of the market is occupied by long-term participants and has firm diamond hand support. The support is relatively strong and it is not easy to cause a huge market collapse.
The overall spot selling pressure is small and is currently at this year's low. From this stage and perspective, it is still relatively safe.
Mid-term exploration
• Network sentiment positivity • Liquidity supply • Incremental model • Stability and BTC, ETH market cap ratio • Long-term and short-term supply ratio
After a period of decline, online sentiment is now gradually stabilizing.
Perhaps the mood in the venue is slowly recovering and has reached a certain threshold.
The supply of liquidity is slowly being repaired. When liquidity increases, the market may have a fall-stopping effect.
The market may be suitable at present.
The supply of stablecoins continues to grow and purchasing power continues to increase.
The sentiment of short-term funds may decline slightly, and the market rhythm may not be too fast, but more inclined to a rhythm of oscillating repair.
It is possible that the data may show a rising market during the process of decreasing ratio. At the same time, before the market reaches a downturn or reversal, the market relationship may reach a certain peak. The general market value relationship is only for the convenience of observing the macro relationship of the market. It is currently in a slight decline.
Blue line: Long-term and short-term supply ratio. In the internal on-chain interaction of the market, there is a supply ratio relationship between long-term and short-term chips.
When the blue line is rising, the market may be unstable or in a state of long-term accumulation.
If the blue line is falling, the market may be buying or forming support at the bottom.
Short-term observation
• Derivatives risk factor • Option intention transaction ratio • Derivatives transaction volume • Option implied volatility • Profit and loss transfer volume • New addresses and active addresses • BTC exchange net position • ETH exchange net position • High-weight selling pressure • Global purchasing power status • Stablecoin exchange net position • Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor has entered the neutral zone, and the risk is moderate.
The market price performance is basically the same as last week. After the risk factor hit the red zone, the price then adjusted back to the short-term holder cost line (62K) for adjustment. Judging from the risk factor alone, if there is no further selling pressure in the market this week, it will still adjust near the current price.
Option trading volume dropped significantly, while the proportion of put options increased slightly.
Derivatives volumes returned to the bottom area after the market squeeze.
Implied volatility has not changed much.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
The current market lacks incremental growth, so the market adjusted again after the positive market sentiment (blue line) hit a short-term extreme last week. In addition, the panic sentiment (orange line) did not surge as a result. Overall, the market sentiment is still neutral, and the market is more volatile.
Newly added and active addresses are at medium-high levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a small outflow, and ETH has accumulated inflows.
BTC outflows in small amounts.
ETH inflows accumulate.
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, while stablecoin purchasing power has been lost significantly.
There has been a small loss in global purchasing power compared to last week, but overall purchasing power is still positive.
USDC exchange net positions have been drained significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 58,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 58,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 58,000 and 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 58,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 66,000~70,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of the news:
1. The jobs report could ease market concerns that the U.S. job market is cooling too quickly and could increase the likelihood that Federal Reserve policymakers will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month, following a sharp rate cut at the Fed's September meeting.
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated last week that protecting the labor market was part of the reason why the Fed decided to start an easing cycle with a larger interest rate cut in September.
3. Powell and his colleagues believe that no further cooling is needed to reduce inflation to the Fed's 2% target.
4. In terms of encryption, the overall liquidity of options is still bullish;
5. In other comprehensive aspects, although the performance was poor last week, the overall performance of the crypto market in the fourth quarter is still bullish.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. The number of new chips has increased rapidly for the first time in a few weeks;
2. The inflow of large exchanges has decreased, and the selling pressure has decreased rapidly;
3. The proportion of long-term participants’ holdings has reached the level in mid-2020, which is similar to the beginning of this year;
4. The total spot selling pressure is low and is currently at the lowest level since the beginning of this year.
• Market setting tone:
The selling pressure is reduced and the support is gradually getting stronger.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. The decline in online sentiment is slowly stabilizing;
2. Liquidity supply increased slightly;
3. Short-term funds are slightly stagnant, and the pace may slow down;
4. The market value of stablecoins relative to BTC and ETH has declined;
5. Short-term capital sentiment in the market has not increased.
• Market setting tone:
The state of shock and repair in the field may be relatively slow, tending to shock and repair.
On-chain short-term observations:
1. The risk factor enters the neutral zone and the risk is moderate.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium-high level.
3. Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
4. The overall net position of the exchange shows a small outflow of BTC and an accumulation of ETH inflows.
5. Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has been lost significantly.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 58,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
7. The probability that the price will not fall below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that the price will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
• Market tone: In the short term, the market may still fluctuate around the short-term holder cost line (62K), and there is still buying power near the current price to further accumulate chips. The overall market sentiment is neutral, and the market may need an opportunity for the next period of market.
Risk warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
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