As mentioned in the previous introduction, this October Outlook will be very concise. I will only talk in detail about 3-5 tokens that I personally want to participate in. I hope everyone will like this format (it was too scattered before, the information Not efficient).
TLDR: $UNI $SOL Berachain |_20241111120232_| $WELL $ENA
Market hype is generally divided into two modes. One is artificial narrative. This kind of narrative usually promotes a leading token to move independently, such as $SUI. The other is the brewing, emergence and explosion of innovation. This innovation may be a fun Ponzi, or it may be a narrative that satisfies market demand to a large extent, such as $AXS (this round of memecoin is an atypical case).
Generally speaking, the first narrative wave will give us ordinary people more opportunities. This kind of big innovation is often born in the context of macroeconomic liquidity spillover - funds have a higher demand for money-making effect & capital efficiency, and demand drives the occurrence of innovation.
A big problem with this round is that "there is no narrative that can guide the entry and transfer of liquidity like the previous round," and liquidity is the key to asset pricing. Narrative cannot guide liquidity, and asset speculation will be difficult to start. Everyone is speculating on memes and paying attention to them. As long as there is some disturbance, related memes will appear quickly. But meme narratives are also the most likely to make investors feel tired, and they will eventually become confused.
So is there still a chance in the crypto?
I think there is, at least there are several main narratives developing in parallel in the crypto.
Intent abstraction & chain abstraction
The ultimate goal of this narrative is to "allow users and liquidity to enter and participate in Crypto in a low-threshold and insensitive way." It seems that the future is bright. But this is not Ponzi, and there is a high probability that there will not be large-scale wealth opportunities.
In essence, these hypes are based on the idea that "users in the crypto feel that this narrative can bring them new takeovers." But whether it can ultimately bring a large number of real users and liquidity to the crypto, we still have to put a question mark here.
The core catalyst of this narrative is the launch of $UNI v4.
The launch of Uniswap v4 is a catalyst that draws market attention to this narrative. In the future, during the development of this narrative, the front-end may become the most popular target for speculation in the market, followed by "infrastructure layer targets" like Uniswap v4 and "liquidity interaction layer targets". But at the beginning, the one with the greatest chance should be $UNI. At the same time, there should be corresponding opportunities for $COW $1INCH with a similar concept.
Layer1 competition
In the current market, Layer 1 competition is the most mainstream narrative, no one else.
In this cycle, the main line of market hype is Solana, and from time to time, another Layer 1 will pop up to compete with Solana.
For example, in the previous $AVAX, Avalanche promoted token price growth through "meme speculation" and "official announcements and PR from top companies". The current $SUI is also the same. They are using "OTC transactions to let English CTs place orders (doubtful and uncertain) to create a new narrative" and "memecoin hype (there are also some good wealth effects on Sui now)" And "use $SUI tokens to incentivize liquidity (similar to Arbitrum)" to attract market attention and increase liquidity stickiness. It is worth mentioning that the DeFi rate of return on Sui is still good.
Now many Layer1 are trying to use memecoin to attract market attention and liquidity, but in the end they have little effect (such as BSC).
Therefore, I think the change of power in Layer 1 is most likely a short-term event. These Layer 1 are doing things, and short-term participation can definitely make a profit - because your behavior matches the needs of the project team.
Another Layer 1 gameplay is Fantom's Rebrand - building a chain with better performance to upgrade the brand. If no one plays in the blockchain at the beginning, then use the expectation of future airdrops as incentives. In essence, it is similar to the previous Layer 2 gameplay. It is not very new, but it is effective before the airdrop.
As for the promising Layer 1, my list here is: Solana $SOL and Berachain.
The reason for being optimistic about Solana is simple, just look at who has more large-cap memecoins on Binance. memecoin is a Layer1 trump card.
Berachain's PoL is the only large-scale innovation in the Layer 1 consensus mechanism in this cycle, which introduces a dynamic game between users, nodes and projects. At the same time, they are also actively supporting ecological projects in a transparent, decentralized and fair way. I am deeply involved in the Berachain ecosystem, so I am DYOR.
In addition to basic Layer 1 competition, I also like modular storytelling. Modularization is a new narrative that has been discussed more in this cycle. In fact, just look at the picture below.
However, the goal of modularization is somewhat difficult to describe. Originally, I wanted to take a bite of $EIGEN, but I didn’t expect that $EIGEN had a hacking incident, which caused a huge response from the community. All in all, I am still optimistic about $EIGEN, and think that $EIGEN may attract other modular projects, and there will be a wave of price performance in a certain period of Q4 (it is estimated that it will really be speculated on a large scale in the next cycle) .
artificial intelligence
There is no need to mention the AI narrative, just look at OpenAI’s recent operations. Also, AI tokens were previously linked to NVIDIA stock. The best-performing token in the Crypto AI track recently is $TAO. If you want to choose a target, choose the strongest one. The hype of AI tokens has nothing to do with fundamentals. Our focus is still on the changes in the AI industry. (China TAO $NMT can also be paid attention to, but its hype is $TAO a matter later) The key words are "price performance during the market correction" and "appropriate time node".
This type of hype will continue until the AI bubble bursts. All we can do is enjoy the bubble before it bursts.
Stablecoin competition and DeFi
The current competition in the stablecoin track is becoming increasingly fierce. For example, Paypal has entered the game, Binance has turned its attention to supporting FDUSD, BlackRock is also actively laying out the stablecoin track, and Coinbase has launched USDC and Euro stablecoins on Base.
Under this fierce competition, the three tokens that we can currently speculate on are Sky (formerly MakerDAO), $LQTY and $ENA.
Sky is the oldest decentralized stablecoin project and has recently been promoting the transformation of its governance token and native stablecoin. Obviously, Sky hopes to reduce the impact of interest rate cuts on project products and transform from a "using RWA revenue to incentivize adoption" to a "using tokens to incentivize adoption" model. Later, Sky will open new markets by issuing SubDAO to maintain the adoption scale of the project's stable currency. There will definitely be opportunities for wealth, but right now the community is not buying into Sky's recent operations. I also saw some negative comments from the community.
In addition, as Teacher Shenyu said, interest rate cuts will definitely enhance the competitiveness of DeFi. There are opportunities in the DeFi track, including Ethereum and Solana’s DeFi. In short, whichever Layer 1 chain has high activity and high TVL, the DeFi project tokens on which chain will be more popular. Later, the demand for high returns may also give rise to new plates. But that’s a matter of the bull market, let’s take it one step at a time.
Here I would like to mention the Ethereum Layer2 Basechain separately. Base has performed very well recently, TVL rose a lot in September, and the growth in fundamentals will bring new wealth opportunities. Here we need to clarify Coinbase's needs for Basechain: Base can expand Coinbase's influence in the encryption industry and can also bring sorter revenue to Coinbasse. If Base is good, Coinbase will benefit, and Coinbase will be fully motivated to promote the continued growth of the Base ecosystem (the same is true for the previous pull $AERO).
What is Coinbase currently promoting?
cbBTC.
Moonwell and Aerodrome will be the main places for cbBTC growth. Currently, Moonwell has launched cbBTC liquidity mining subsidies. Pulling $WELL can drive more cbBTC adoption (personal opinion).
$LQTY has v2 expected (November) and is also a decentralized stablecoin recognized by the community. Sky's transformation itself is good for $LQTY, which is one of the reasons why it rose sharply some time ago (my personal opinion). The impact of industry changes and the imminent realization of expectations may affect $LQTY future price performance.
The competitiveness of $ENA lies in: "new stablecoins coming out in this cycle" and "collaborating with BlackRock to launch new UStb stablecoins." The impact of this form of cooperation is much greater than those projects participating in BlackRock's Buidl Fund. In-depth cooperation is the best catalyst. The recent airdrop and unlocking of $ENA should give us an opportunity to enter.
Extended reading: Ethena launches new "stable currency UStb" to earn U.S. debt income from BlackRock BUIDL fund, ENA jumps 20%
Other promising coins are $PENDLE and $BANANA. $PENDLE We have talked about it many times before. Recently, I am promoting BTCFi and v3 is expected. $BANANA You can refer to this tweet from the boss of @BensonTWN (very well written).
For games, we will consider $PIXEL $PRIME |_202411111202333_|. I personally think that we cannot look at these projects from the perspective of the game sector. We need to look at the catalysts corresponding to these projects separately.
The BTC ecosystem still needs to be further observed (the core demand is still there, please see my metagame article for details). We are still at the stage where the market believes that miners need on-chain activity to increase their income, and we look forward to new developments in the BTC ecosystem. But the problem is that the surge in on-chain handling fees will most likely only be a short-term phenomenon. Miners like it, but the market cannot continue to pay.
Regarding the memecoin narrative, I personally believe that mainstream memecoin will see a huge surge after liquidity returns, $WIF $PEPE has the greatest chance. Memecoin cannot predict, it can only go with the flow. Generally speaking, I am still optimistic about the memecoin track, and believe that there will be at least two memecoins with a market value of 10B+ in this track, just like the last round $DOGE $SHIB.
Finally, let’s take a look at what will happen in October:
- $JEWEL Colosseum PvP on Metis: I don’t know what kind of sparks these two projects can create, but $METIS is indeed going well;
- $XRP ETF and SEC: I think there’s a chance for a decent rally;
- $STX Nakamoto Upgrade: It is good for $STX, and there is a high probability that there will be good wealth opportunities on Stacks;
- $DUSK Mainnet Launch: I won’t pay too much attention to this track at the moment;
- $AVAX Summit (16-18 Oct)
- $WLD “New World” with Sam Altman: Also relevant to the AI industry;
- $RENDER Migration Rewards End
- $TIA Unlock of $1.05B
- JPY Interest Rate Decision
Please refer to this tweet for details
