Odaily星球日报讯 瑞银经济学家布赖恩·罗斯（Brian Rose）在上周五的一份报告中表示，9 月份的 CPI 将是一个关键数据。如果价格上涨速度快于预期，再加上劳动力数据走强，美联储在 11 月会议上按兵不动的可能性将增加。根据 CME FedWatch 工具的数据，在 9 月就业报告发布后，美联储下个月降息 50 个基点的可能性从 33%下滑至零，交易员现在甚至不完全定价 25 个基点的降息。因此，周四的 CPI 读数对美联储下一步行动的重要性已经有所提升。（金十）

瑞银：若CPI数据不符预期，美联储按兵不动的可能性将增加

Odaily Odaily News: UBS economist Brian Rose said in a report last Friday that September&#39;s CPI will be a key data. If prices rise faster than expected, coupled with stronger labor data, the likelihood of the Fed staying on hold at the November meeting will increase. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, after the release of the September employment report, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next month fell from 33% to zero, and traders are now not even fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut. Therefore, the importance of Thursday&#39;s CPI reading to the Fed&#39;s next move has increased. (Jinshi)

UBS: If CPI data does not meet expectations, the possibility of the Fed staying on hold will increase

Ed Yardeni, a veteran on Wall Street, believes that the Federal Reserve's monetary easing policy this year may have already ended. Given the market's aggressive pricing of rate cuts, any additional easing policy could increase the probability of a stock market crash.

Written by: Li Xiaoyin, Wall Street Insider

Due to the much stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data in September, signaling more signs of an economic "soft landing", market expectations for rate cuts within the year have significantly diminished.

The data released overnight showed that the US non-farm payroll increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% for the first time in nearly a year, also lower than expected.

Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and "no more rate cuts this year" entered Wall Street discussion

According to the news from Mars Finance, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that although the start of the month was turbulent, the upward trend of Bitcoin in October seems to have returned to the right track. The current Bitcoin price is on par with the level of last Monday. QCP pointed out that the "Uptober" narrative and strong non-farm employment data have helped Bitcoin find strong support around $60,000. The upcoming HBO Bitcoin documentary is also bringing more mainstream attention to cryptocurrencies, and meme tokens related to Len Sassaman are also starting to gain attention.

Although the start of the week was not good, the options flow still points to a bullish fourth quarter, with investors continuing to buy the $75,000/$95,000 call spread expiring in December. Considering the potential for future rate cuts and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market, QCP remains optimistic about the strong performance in October. The US CPI data on Thursday will be the focus of the market. Recent strong US wage and employment data have the market closely watching for signs of rising inflation. The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has been revised down from 50 basis points to 25 basis points within a week, and this week's data may determine whether the rate cut expectation is adjusted further.

QCP Capital: Remain optimistic about Bitcoin's strong performance in October, this week's CPI data is key

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
On October 7th, local time in the United States, Judge John Dorsey of the Delaware Bankruptcy Court officially decided to approve FTX's bankruptcy plan at the hearing, which means that the compensation process for FTX has finally made qualitative progress. Going forward, FTX will use the maximum $16.5 billion in assets recovered since the bankruptcy filing to compensate its creditors.
Considering the current market sentiment regarding FTX's compensation...