Odaily星球日报讯 剑桥大学王后学院院长埃里安表示，目前有关美联储货币政策路径的猜谜游戏正在造成市场波动。美债已经遭遇大幅抛售，此前表现强劲的 9 月非农就业报告引发交易员迅速下调对美联储未来大幅降息的押注。周五以来的下跌推动基准 2 年期和 10 年期美国国债收益率自 8 月以来首度升破 4%。掉期交易员如今预计美联储在 11 月会议上仅降息 25 基点的概率为 80%。在过去 15 天里 11 月降息 50 基点的概率从逾 60%降到零。埃里安补充说，美联储自 2021 年以来的沟通“放大”了市场波动，尽管政策指引本应起到相反的作用。（金十）

埃里安：围绕美联储货币政策路径的猜谜游戏令市场乱作一团

Odaily Odaily reported that El-Erian, dean of Queen&#39;s College, Cambridge University, said that the current guessing game about the path of the Federal Reserve&#39;s monetary policy is causing market volatility. U.S. Treasuries have already suffered a sharp sell-off after a strong September non-farm payrolls report caused traders to quickly lower their bets on the Fed&#39;s future sharp interest rate cuts. The decline since Friday has pushed the yields on benchmark 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds above 4% for the first time since August. Swap traders now expect an 80% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by only 25 basis points at its November meeting. Over the past 15 days, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November has dropped from more than 60% to zero. El-Erian added that the Fed&#39;s communication since 2021 has &quot;amplified&quot; market volatility, even though policy guidance should have the opposite effect. (Jinshi)

El-Erian: The guessing game over the Fed's monetary policy path has confused the market

Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by less than 50 basis points further this year. (Golden Ten)

Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by less than 50 basis points this year

According to the news from Mars Finance, on October 7th, the US non-farm payrolls released last Friday unexpectedly increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, confirming the expectation of a healthy economic soft landing, and causing the market to withdraw its bet on a significant rate cut in November.

According to 4E's observation, buoyed by the expectation of an economic soft landing, US stocks collectively opened higher and closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.90%, up 0.22% for the week, the Nasdaq rising 1.22%, up 0.1% for the week, and the Dow Jones rising 0.81%, up 0.09% for the week. The index of Chinese concept stocks rose more than 3% and was up nearly 12% for the week. The cryptocurrency market followed the US stocks and rose collectively, with Bitcoin rising back above $63,000, closing at $63,859 at the time of writing, with the weekly decline narrowing to 1.03%, and Ethereum closing at $2,507, with the weekly decline narrowing to 4.18%.

In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the demand for safe-haven assets and the positive economic data have driven the US dollar index to rise for five consecutive days this week, reaching a seven-week high, with non-US currencies generally falling, the euro against the US dollar falling 1.8% for the week, and the pound against the US dollar falling 2% for the week. The robust employment data has completely eliminated the expectation of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, causing the US dollar and US bond yields to rebound together, which has put continuous pressure on gold prices, with spot gold falling 0.5% for the week and ending a three-week winning streak. The market continues to be concerned about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East leading to supply disruptions, with oil prices rising for five consecutive days, with Brent crude oil up more than 9% for the week.

The focus of the market this week will be on the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, the release of US inflation data for September, and the financial reports of major banks, which will provide important economic clues to the market. In addition, the development of the situation in the Middle East also needs to be closely watched. EEEE.com is a financial trading platform that supports cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, foreign exchange and other assets, and has recently launched a USDT stable coin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing potential hedging options for investors. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: This week's focus is on the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the US September CPI data

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Federal Reserve Governor Kugler stated that she firmly supports the Fed's recent rate cuts, and if inflation continues to ease as she expects, she will support further rate cuts. Kugler said: "While I believe the focus should still be on continuing to bring the inflation rate down to 2%, I also support shifting attention to the maximum employment side of the FOMC's dual mandate. The labor market remains resilient, but I support addressing the FOMC's dual mandate in a balanced way." Kugler stated: "If inflation continues to make progress as I expect, I will support further rate cuts in order to move towards a more neutral policy stance over time." (Jinshi)