Odaily星球日报讯 美元在美联储会议纪要公布前上涨。美联储上月降息 50 个基点，最新会议纪要可能为下一步政策措施提供线索。荷兰国际分析师 Chris Turner 在一份报告中表示，“过去几周，市场已经将美联储 2024 年的宽松周期缩减了约 30 个基点，但我们同样怀疑投资者现在是否有心情为美联储激进的宽松周期重新定价。”他还表示，周四的 CPI 数据可能显示美国 9 月核心通胀率仍然较高，可能会对美元构成支撑。（金十）

分析：周四CPI数据可能对美元构成支撑

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The US dollar rose ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points last month, and the latest meeting minutes may provide clues for the next policy measures. <Chris Turner>, an analyst at <ING>, said in a report that "the market has already priced in about 30 basis points of the Fed's easing cycle in 2024 over the past few weeks, but we also suspect whether investors are now in the mood to reprice the Fed's aggressive easing cycle." He also said that the CPI data on Thursday may show that the US core inflation rate in September is still relatively high, which may provide support for the US dollar. (Gold Ten)

Analysis: Thursday's CPI data could support the dollar

The main US stock indexes closed in the red, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising above 4%, amid tensions in the Middle East and expectations of a slowdown in rate cuts. Bitcoin slid from its high of $64,478 yesterday, Ethereum fell from $2,521, and almost all assets except oil fell across the board.

The war in Ukraine has been raging for a year, with no signs of the fighting subsiding.

The earnings season is about to begin, with the market focusing on the CPI data on Thursday.

Tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin falls along with U.S. stocks

Odaily Planet Daily reported that the Provost of Queen's College, Cambridge University, Erica Erixon, stated that the current guessing game about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path is causing market volatility. US Treasuries have experienced a significant sell-off, and the previously strong September non-farm payroll report has prompted traders to quickly scale back their bets on the Federal Reserve making large rate cuts in the future. The decline since Friday has pushed the benchmark 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields above 4% for the first time since August. Swap traders now estimate an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting. The probability of a 50 basis point cut in November has dropped from over 60% to zero in the past 15 days. Erixon added that the Federal Reserve's communication since 2021 has "amplified" market volatility, even though policy guidance should have the opposite effect.

El-Erian: The guessing game over the Fed's monetary policy path has confused the market

1 hour ago, the top American streaming platform HBO finally released a documentary about the founder of Bitcoin. In the trailer that whets the appetite of all cryptocurrency investors, HBO claims that this film will reveal who Satoshi Nakamoto is.

In the past, speculations about Satoshi Nakamoto were just online discussions, but this time it's different, as people have started betting money.

As the director of this documentary, Hoback, said, the public's wagers on "who is Satoshi Nakamoto" have made this topic even hotter, with the betting pool on <AR>polymarket</AR> already accumulating to $20 million. Hoback is sitting in front of a computer...