Author: MiX Source: X, @MixWeb3
TL;DR
1. The era of synchronized rise in crypto assets has ended;
2. The Memecoin super cycle has begun, and it's happening now;
3. Any crypto asset that does not allocate cash flow to your wallet and cannot serve as a store of value is a Memecoin;
4. The crypto industry is not a technology-first industry, but an asset-first industry;
5. Memecoins are not a vampire attack on crypto technology, but a counterattack on traditional Crpyto Tokens.
I really started pondering Memecoins from April 2024, because at that time, the father of Runes, Casey@rodarmor, had defined Runes as being built for degens and memecoins.
Later, I gave a presentation in Hong Kong with the title "Runes | Bringing Memes Back to Bitcoin": on the one hand, I believe that the Runes protocol will become the first standard for Memecoins issuance in the entire Crypto world; on the other hand, I found that the connotation of Meme is expanding, growing and evolving, from "speculation" to a "Growth strategy" and becoming a carrier of "social movement".
In the future, it may be Memecoin first, attracting the public to do financial pricing for consensus, and then doing interesting and valuable things after strengthening the community through survival of the fittest, which in turn can empower Memecoins. Isn't this the saying "Memecoin is a business card of an ecosystem", the subtext is that without Memecoins going viral, the ecosystem is most likely not even enough for basic community consensus.
Vitalik has also extended and pondered the value of Memecoins⬇️, and his vision is very high.
Yesterday, Vitalik was still talking, hoping that Memecoins can bring positive utility to this world.
Today's main text "The Memecoin Supersycle" is Murad's speech at the just-concluded Singapore TOKEN 2049 conference⬇️
In the 10 days since the video was released, it has received 26,000 views on YouTube and over 1.2 million exposures on X posts. With such momentum, Memecoins have a real opportunity to become an important practice in exploring new economic models and promoting social progress.
The full text of the speech is as follows, Enjoy～
Meme Coins have sparked a frenzy in the crypto currency market, so the Memecoin super cycle is not just a prediction of the future, but is already happening in reality.
When we review the performance of all major crypto currency categories so far this year, you will find that they are a mixed bag, with many disappointing tokens, but as shown in the above figure: the performance of Memecoins is very outstanding.
Currently, old Memecoins are performing well, while new Memecoins are performing exceptionally well. The era of synchronized rise in all crypto assets has ended, and the notion of "we will succeed" is outdated, which is a natural step in the development of this field.
As shown in the above figure, you will find that only 43 tokens have outperformed Bitcoin so far this year, and 13 of the top 20 tokens are Memecoins.
# Why is there a Memecoin cycle?
There are two driving factors behind the Memecoin cycle, one from within the crypto field and the other from the external environment. First, let's look at the factors within the crypto field.
1. Oversupply of Tokens: By April 2024 alone, the market has launched 600,000 new Tokens, with over 5,500 new Tokens added daily. This oversupply of production has flooded the market with a large number of new Tokens, causing the value of many projects to be severely diluted.
2. Serious inflation of Altcoin valuations: These Tokens are artificially inflated in valuation when listed on centralized exchanges. The founders obtain Tokens at almost no cost, venture capitalists and angel investors purchase a large proportion of Tokens at extremely low prices, and then centralized exchanges, market makers, Twitter influencers, Telegram group callers, YouTubers, etc. all promote the project by obtaining Tokens or money. Ultimately, retail investors become the source of liquidity when these projects exit, and when you launch a project valued at $10 billion, the retail investors are the ones being dumped on.
3. Price increase in the private placement stage: The vast majority of Altcoin price increases occur in the private placement stage. By the time the Tokens are actually launched, the valuation has often reached the level of $500 million, $1 billion or even $1.5 billion, and retail investors have almost no chance to profit from it. They are only attracted into the bubble of these Token prices at their peaks.
I firmly believe that these Tokens are deliberately pushed into the market with extremely high initial valuations, so that even if the Token price inevitably plummets by 90% in the initial period, the seed investors can still get hundreds of times the return, while the retail investors are misled into thinking that these Tokens are being sold at a "discounted price".
In 2024, all the new Tokens launched on Binance, except for two, have declined in price. One exception is Whiff, which has hardly grown since its listing, and the other is Jupiter, which is closely related to the trading infrastructure of Memecoins. These facts send a strong signal: most newly issued Altcoin projects do not perform well.
# Problems within the industry
Without the inflow of retail capital, the entire Token market cannot be sustained, but the vast majority of retail investors have never cared about technology.
Even though we have been using smart contract technology for over a decade, successful non-speculative decentralized applications (dApps) in this industry are still few and far between. If you look at projects like Uniswap, dYdX, GMX, and Solana, these may be the projects with the highest product-market fit in the history of crypto, but they are almost entirely dependent on speculative activity. 99% of Altcoins are not worth their valuations, and many projects do not pay dividends, often claiming it is due to regulatory reasons, when in fact it is not in their interests.
Some projects may only have $500 in daily fee revenue, but their valuations are in the billions of dollars. This phenomenon is very common, and these infrastructure Tokens are clearly not going to become a store of value for currency either.
The value of these Tokens often depends on narratives, mimicry effects, and market hype, and the market is also not inclined to evaluate the value of these Tokens based on actual revenue.
# The Unique Advantages of Memecoins
In comparison, Memecoins have their own unique advantages. Memecoins do not need to rely on complex valuation models or actual revenue to support their market capitalization like traditional technology-based Tokens. Their advantage lies in their simplicity and directness - the Token itself is the product. Memecoins are not an attack on crypto technology, but a counterattack on crypto Token technology. Memecoins and Altcoins are actually selling the same thing - the Token itself, not the technology behind it.
Memecoins are the spiritual embodiment of the 2017 ICO wave, but they appear in a completely new form and are more pure. They represent a more direct community economy, not relying on complex technological narratives, but using simple and easy-to-understand ways to attract the market.
Many venture-backed tech projects are overvalued and lack true community support. Memecoins, on the other hand, have built strong brands and loyalty through community building, allowing the projects to operate sustainably. In contrast, venture-backed projects rely on private placements and high valuations to drive the market, while Memecoins are powered by the cohesion of the community, allowing participants to profit and become loyal supporters.
# External Driving Forces
In addition to internal industry factors, the external environment is also driving the development of MEME coins. Today's global economy is vastly different from four years ago. Inflation is rising rapidly, and the prices of everyday goods are also continuously rising. The rapid development of artificial intelligence even threatens the employment opportunities in traditional STEM fields, and the problem of wealth inequality has reached a historical high. The situation is even worse in regions outside of developed countries.
The intensification of loneliness, sexual repression, and mental health problems has led more and more people to turn to the virtual world in search of a sense of belonging and meaning. In this context, MEME coins have become their choice. People are not only seeking wealth in MEME coins, but also seeking fun, identity, and a sense of belonging.
# The Power of Narrative and Culture
MEME coins are essentially a Swiss Army knife, providing a series of products that offer identity, culture, escape, reduced loneliness, community, hope, and many other things. I believe that the influence of religion in the world is weakening, and brands, experiences, and communities are filling this void. You can already see this in electronic games, music festivals, yoga, DMT meditation, CrossFit, SoulCycle, keto diets, and of course financial assets.
The formation of trends requires narratives as support, and the success of MEME coins is backed by stories about people making huge profits in simple ways, which are constantly circulating throughout the industry and social media. For example, Pepe, Bonk, and Whiff have become several successful typical cases in this cycle. These stories have breathed new life into MEME coins, driving the continued development of the market.
History tells us that assets that perform well in the first half of a cryptocurrency cycle often continue to perform well in the second half. For example, Ethereum surged in 2016 and then soared again twice in 2017; Verge surged in 2016 and then rose again in 2017; Solana soared in 2020 and then rebounded strongly again in 2021. Therefore, I believe that the MEME coin frenzy we experienced in March 2024 is just the first wave of three waves of increases, and there will be two larger increases in 2025.
# The Market Positioning of MEME Coins
The success of MEME coins is not just due to speculative behavior. They represent a more organic market model that allows ordinary investors to also gain wealth by holding tokens. MEME coins have turned those investors who were previously unable to profit in other markets into loyal evangelists, driving the spread of the entire project.
The future of MEME coins lies in the fact that they are not just speculative tools, but a new economic form - a tokenized community. The best MEME coins will become long-lasting brands and cultural symbols, representing not only wealth, but also a sense of identity.
# The Future of MEME Coins
The MEME coin super cycle has already begun, and it will continue to develop. I predict that the market capitalization of MEME coins will reach $1 trillion, and a quarter of the top 20 on CoinMarketCap will be MEME coins. Over time, utility tokens and venture-backed Altcoins will continue to perform poorly, while MEME coins will continue to dominate the market.
MEME coins are not only a market phenomenon, but also represent a new community economic model. Their simplicity, ease of understanding, and high level of participation make them the most vibrant and growth-potential assets in the cryptocurrency industry. If you want to seize the next big opportunity, MEME coins are undoubtedly an area worth your attention.
In summary, MEME coins are simpler than technology Altcoins, more liquid than Non-Fungible Tokens, and more secure than DeFi. They have no inflation, no unlocking, and no venture capitalists trying to sell to you. Your odds of winning are better than sports betting or casinos, the volatility is greater (and therefore more exciting), it's a fresher narrative, and it gives retail a chance to win. The best crypto products don't need tokens, the best crypto tokens don't need products. Let me say it again, the MEME coin cycle is not a prediction, it is already happening, MEME coins are dominant in every metric, in every way.
So the prediction: MEME coin market capitalization will reach $1 trillion; you will see 2 MEME coins with a market capitalization over $100 billion; you will see 10 MEME coins with a market capitalization over $10 billion; a quarter of the CoinMarketCap homepage will be MEME coins; MEME coins will occupy a 10% market share; utility and venture-backed Altcoins will continue to perform poorly; the "fat protocol" theory will slowly fade away as building stores of value and casinos (ranked 4th and 5th) are becoming increasingly difficult; venture capital firms will buy blue-chip MEME coins, savvy venture capital firms have already started doing this; traditional finance will buy MEME coins, savvy traditional finance has already started doing this; you will see a super MEME coin-ization before a super Bitcoinization; many are talking about the faith economy, the tokenization of faith, and the financialization of a new religion.
