In this latest coin bull market, coin broke through $73,000 and set a new record high in March, but the market then turned from prosperity to decline. Although coin is expected to challenge the March high in the following months, it was eventually pushed back by the market. After August, market sentiment further deteriorated, and coin continued to fluctuate widely between $55,000 and $65,000.
Amid the lukewarm market, investors are eagerly awaiting a catalyst that can help the cryptocurrency market break the deadlock.
Conditions for Bitcoin to Reach 80,000 USD
In this regard, Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of digital asset management firm Bitwise, released an article yesterday stating that coin needs to meet three conditions to set a new historical high of $80,000 in 2024, and there is an additional factor that can accelerate the price development of coin:
1. US Election: Avoid a Democratic Party Sweep
Hougan said that the US election has a huge impact on cryptocurrencies, but many people tend to view the election results in a binary way: Trump's victory is bullish, and Harris's victory is bearish.
While the Republican Party has a positive stance on cryptocurrencies, the situation is more complex for the Democratic Party, as there are clear divisions within the party on the stance towards cryptocurrencies, from Senator Elizabeth Warren's "anti-crypto army" to Congressman Ritchie Torres' strong support for crypto:
Over the past four years, with the Warren faction controlling policy and agency appointments, the coin industry has faced a hostile environment.
However, Hougan believes that as long as the Democratic Party does not have full control of both the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the White House, the Democratic Party's attitude towards cryptocurrencies will be more neutral. (According to Polymarket data, the current probability of a Democratic Party sweep is 20%)
2. Economy: Two Rate Cuts + Global Stimulus Policies
Furthermore, Hougan believes that the Federal Reserve's rate cut starting in September is a major positive factor, and similarly, China's announcement of a 2 trillion RMB economic stimulus plan at the end of September is also a positive signal.
Hougan said that the market currently has high expectations for the US rate cut and stimulus policies, and it is currently expected that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by another 50 basis points (2 notches) by the end of the year, and China will also release more fiscal stimulus measures. If the expectations are met, coin will see a strong rebound, but it could also be a double-edged sword:
If these conditions are met, I believe coin will see a strong rebound in the fourth quarter; if the expectations are not met, the market's disappointment may put pressure on the price.
3. Crypto Market: No Major Negative Events
Hougan also pointed out that during this period, the cryptocurrency market must avoid the occurrence of new major unexpected events, such as large-scale hacker attacks, new major lawsuits, or the sudden dumping of locked-up tokens:
The coin market has always been full of various unexpected events. In the past few quarters, the release of coins locked in the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox and government assets has led to increased market price volatility.
If we can avoid such events by the end of the year, I expect coin to set a new record high, or even exceed it.
Additional Boost: Altcoins
In addition to the above 3 conditions, Hougan believes that the overall rise of the cryptocurrency market will help drive the price of coin, and although coin's long-term success does not depend on Ethereum, Solana, and other coins, the market sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is a necessary consideration if coin is to experience a short-term surge:
Looking back at coin's history, from June 2019 to June 2020, coin fluctuated between $8,000 and $10,000, but began to rise in the summer of 2020, ultimately surging to $60,000. This wave was largely driven by the economic stimulus during the pandemic, but also partly by the market sentiment of the "DeFi Summer", which brought excitement to the cryptocurrency market.
This year, in addition to coin, this sentiment seems to be rebounding in other cryptocurrency sectors, such as the new highs in stablecoin market capitalization, the community support for high-performance blockchain projects like Sui, Aptos and Monad, and innovative projects like Babylon exploring ways for coin holders to earn yields through staking. If the momentum in these areas can continue, it will help drive the market.
