PANews reported on October 9 that, according to The Block, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said that the US election results, economic conditions, and the lack of major surprises in the crypto industry are the three main factors that will affect whether Bitcoin can "soar to" over $80,000 this quarter.
By the end of 2023, Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will double from its current $42,400 to over $80,000 by the end of this year, citing the approval of a US spot Bitcoin ETF and the Bitcoin fourth halving event as catalysts. In a memo to clients on Wednesday, although Hougan still maintains this forecast, he stated that the situation would be different unless the Democratic Party wins a complete victory in the US election. He believes that while most people view the election as a binary outcome, with Trump being favorable to the industry and Harris being unfavorable, a Republican victory would be "undoubtedly" a good sign, but the situation with the Democrats is more nuanced. Hougan said, "The Democrats have different views on cryptocurrencies, from Senator Elizabeth Warren's opposition to cryptocurrencies, to Congressman Ritchie Torres' strong support for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin doesn't need politicians to thrive. It just needs them not to get in the way. Unless the Democrats sweep both houses of Congress and the White House, I suspect they will take a more neutral stance towards the Bitcoin industry."
On the economic front, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer believes that another 50-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year and additional fiscal stimulus measures by China are the other conditions needed for Bitcoin's rise. Hougan said, "If these two conditions are met, I think we'll see a rally in the fourth quarter. If not, I think disappointment could weigh on the market." Hougan stated that for Bitcoin to trade above $80,000 this year, the final condition is that the crypto industry does not experience any major surprises, such as "no major hacks, no large-scale new litigation, and no sudden influx of previously locked tokens into the market."
