Author: BitpushNews
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting show that policymakers have different views on the recent pace of interest rate cuts, US stocks rose on Wednesday, and the crypto market fell.
The minutes show that "the vast majority" of officials support a larger rate cut, but a few officials have called for a 25 basis point rate cut, believing that the final 50 basis point rate cut approved was too large.
The minutes state: "Some participants indicated that they would have preferred to lower the target range by 25 basis points at this meeting, while a few others indicated that they might have supported such a decision."
After the release of the minutes, market observers lowered their expectations for a rate cut in November. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows a 70.4% probability of a 25 BP rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, and a 29.6% probability of no rate cut.
Bitpush data shows that BTC's trading price was below $62,000 for most of the day, and the bears gained further momentum after the midday session, pushing the price below $61,000. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $60,736, down 2.25% in 24 hours.
Altcoins saw a broad decline, with Baby Doge Coin (BabyDoge) leading the top 200 tokens by market cap with a 26% gain; Chiliz (CHZ) rose 15.5%; SuperVerse rose 5.2%; FTX Token (FTT) led the declines at 9.6%; cat in a dogs world (MEW) fell 8.8%; and Mog Coin (MOG) fell 8.7%.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.13 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at 56.7%.
In the US stock market, the market opened higher and maintained its upward trend at the close. At the close, the S&P 500 index, Dow Jones index, and Nasdaq index all rose, up 0.71%, 1.03%, and 0.60% respectively.
Analyst: If BTC falls below $61,600, STH may experience panic selling
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci emphasized that if BTC falls below $61,600, STH (Short-Term Holders) may experience panic selling.
Bitcoin investors can be divided into Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH), with Long-Term Holders being BTC addresses that have held Bitcoin for 155 days or longer, and Short-Term Holders being traders with a holding period less than the aforementioned timeframe.
This means that the current price trend may be more dependent on Short-Term Holders. Kesmeci explained that the average cost of Bitcoin Short-Term Holders at 1-3 months and 3-6 months is currently $61,633 and $64,459 respectively. As shown in the image, the price is currently being squeezed between this specific range, waiting for a directional breakout. The analyst claimed that if it breaks above $64,500, the bulls may gain momentum.
However, on the other hand, if the average cost of 1-3 month holders at $61,600 is breached, investors' patience will be severely tested, potentially leading to "panic selling" by Short-Term Holders at a loss.
Three factors that could push Bitcoin to $80,000
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently published an article stating that Bitcoin "needs three factors" to set a new high - $80,000.
The first factor Hougan emphasized is the US election, saying: "The US election is hugely significant for cryptocurrencies. Most people see it as a binary outcome: Trump = good, Harris = bad. Undoubtedly, given the Republican Party's strong support and growing support for the crypto space, a Republican victory would be a positive omen for cryptocurrencies, but I think the Democratic side is more nuanced."
The second factor is the economy. Hougan explained: "The primary reason people are drawn to Bitcoin is simple: you can't trust governments to manage money. This idea birthed Bitcoin in 2008 and remains a powerful driver of cryptocurrencies...The Fed is expected to cut rates another 50 basis points by the end of the year, and China is also expected to roll out additional fiscal stimulus. If both happen, I suspect we'll see a rebound in Q4. If we don't, I think disappointment could put pressure on the market."
Hougan's third factor is that cryptocurrencies "don't experience major negative surprises".
He explained: "To achieve an $80,000 rebound, the last thing we need is a period without major surprises. No major hacks. No large-scale new litigation. No previously locked tokens suddenly flooding the market. Unfortunately, crypto's history has been plagued by countless such surprises. In the past few quarters, the release of previously locked Bitcoin from failed exchanges like Mt. Gox and government vaults has kept the market range-bound."
