From a macro perspective, after the non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations last Friday, most officials have basically changed their tune, and this week is still a period of intensive statements. Last night, several senior officials have stated that rate cuts will depend on data, with prudence being the top priority, balancing various competing risks. CME has also continued to lower the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in November to 13%. In the current rate cut cycle, positive economic and employment data are positive factors, which is why the US stock market maintained an upward trend last night. Next, we need to pay attention to the CPI data. Additionally, the market will have to face the impact of two hurricanes before the US election, which will be reflected in the initial jobless claims to be released on Thursday and the October non-farm payroll data to be released on November 1. This needs to be watched. In fact, the US side, whether in terms of policy or data, has been very stable, and the impact on the market is not as great as a random move in the Middle East.
US stocks are rising, but BTC is going the other way?
The BTC trend has started to diverge from US stocks, which is something to be wary of. The day before yesterday, US stocks rose while BTC fell, and yesterday US stocks continued to rise while BTC started to fall. Another phenomenon is that while it is said that US rate cuts lead to economic recession, the US dollar has been rising. The basic rule is that rate cuts lead to a falling US dollar, and a strong economy leads to a rising US dollar, but this is not absolute.
Based on the rise in US stocks and the strengthening of the US dollar, the recent development of the US economy is still strong. We must be alert to the risk of BTC decoupling from US stocks, as it is possible that the US stock bull market will continue, while BTC may undergo a significant correction.
Many crypto investors say that the A-shares are sucking blood, and capital is leaving the crypto market, but it is impossible to quantify how much has actually left. In fact, BTC has not fallen that much. If US stocks continue to rise while BTC falls, will there be a situation of US stocks sucking blood? The US has a real BTC ETF of $50.3 billion, while Hong Kong at most has $2 billion, the scale difference is too large to ignore. And I believe the capital entering the US stocks is no less than that entering China. If it is withdrawn or partially withdrawn, what will happen to the US stocks?! I am not worried about the A-shares, I am worried about the US stocks.
The price of USDT has also shown an inverted spread, with the Chinese yuan exchange rate at 7.1-7.06 and the USDT price on Binance at 6.91-6.93. This also needs to be watched, as long-term experience suggests a bad omen. USDC remains around 7.10!
The main reason is that the previous upward trend has been disrupted, and it is believed that BTC will have a hard time having a good upward trend in the short term, and it is more likely to be mainly a downward correction, unless there is some news impact
BTC needs these 3 factors to reach $80,000 in the fourth quarter!
1) The US election, as long as the Democratic Party does not win a landslide victory
The US election has a huge impact on the crypto industry. Many people think Trump is friendly to crypto, while Harris is not so friendly. But in fact, the Democratic Party's attitude towards crypto is not one-sided. There are people like Elizabeth Warren who are not very supportive of crypto, and there are also people like Richie Torres who support it.
Over the past four years, because the Democratic Party, which was not very supportive of crypto, controlled the policy, the entire industry has not been doing well. But if the Democratic Party does not achieve a landslide victory in the election, their attitude towards crypto may become more neutral.
Now, even the previously unsupportive Democratic Party members have begun to acknowledge that crypto is an inevitable trend. This change in attitude may allow BTC to reach $80,000.
2) 2 rate cuts and global economic easing
Although the US economy is growing, the Fed has still lowered interest rates, and China has also launched an economic stimulus plan, and these measures have all led to a rise in crypto prices. The market is now expecting more stimulus measures. Everyone predicts that the Fed may further lower interest rates by the end of the year, and China may also introduce new stimulus policies.
If these predictions come true, the crypto market may rebound in the fourth quarter.
3) No major "black swan" events in the crypto industry
To allow BTC to reach a new high of $80,000, we need to avoid a few risks: no major hacker attacks, no new large-scale lawsuits, and no sudden influx of previously locked tokens into the market. Events like the bankruptcy of exchanges like Mt. Gox and the release of BTC by governments have caused market volatility. If these shocks can be avoided by the end of the year, BTC may set a new high.
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