Written by: BitpushNews
The minutes of the Fed's September meeting show that policymakers have different views on the recent pace of rate cuts, with US stocks rising on Wednesday and the crypto market falling.
The minutes show that the "vast majority" of officials support a larger rate cut, but a small number of officials have called for a 25 basis point rate cut, believing that the final approved 50 basis point rate cut was too large.
The minutes state: "Some participants indicated that they would have preferred to lower the target range by 25 basis points at this meeting, while a few others indicated that they might have supported such a decision."
After the release of the minutes, market observers lowered their expectations for a rate cut in November. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows a 70.4% probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25BP in November, and a 29.6% probability of no cut.
Bitpush data shows that for most of the day, BTC's trading price was below $62,000, and after the midday session, the bears further pushed the price below $61,000, as of the time of writing, BTC's trading price is $60,736, down 2.25% in 24 hours.
Altcoins fell across the board, with Baby Doge Coin (BabyDoge) leading the top 200 tokens by market cap, up 26%; Chiliz (CHZ) up 15.5%; SuperVerse up 5.2%; FTX Token (FTT) leading the decliners, down 9.6%; cat in a dogs world (MEW) down 8.8%; Mog Coin (MOG) down 8.7%.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is currently $2.13 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at 56.7%.
In the US stock market, the market opened higher and maintained its upward trend at the close. At the close, the S&P 500 index, the Dow Jones index, and the Nasdaq index all rose, up 0.71%, 1.03%, and 0.60% respectively.
Analyst: If BTC breaks below $61,600, STH may experience panic selling
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci emphasized that if BTC breaks below $61,600, STH may experience panic selling.
Bitcoin investors can be divided into short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH), with long-term holders referring to BTC addresses that have held Bitcoin for 155 days or longer, while short-term holders are traders who have held for less than the aforementioned time frame.
This means that the current price trend may be more dependent on short-term holders. Kesmeci explained that the current average cost of Bitcoin short-term holders of 1-3 months and 3-6 months is $61,633 and $64,459 respectively. As shown in the image, the price is currently being squeezed between this specific range, waiting for a directional breakout. The analyst claimed that if it breaks above $64,500, the bulls may gain momentum.
However, on the other hand, if the average cost of 1-3 month holders at $61,600 is breached, investors' patience will be severely tested, potentially leading to "panic selling" by short-term holders at a loss.
Three factors that could push Bitcoin to $80,000
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently wrote that Bitcoin "needs three factors" to set a new high - $80,000.
The first factor Hougan emphasized is the US election, saying: "The US election is of great significance to cryptocurrencies. Most people see this as a binary outcome: Trump = good, Harris = bad. Undoubtedly, given the Republican Party's strong support and growing support for the cryptocurrency field, a Republican victory would be a good omen for cryptocurrencies, but I think the situation on the Democratic side is more nuanced."
The second factor is the economy. Hougan explained: "The primary reason people are attracted to Bitcoin is simple: you can't trust the government to manage money. This idea gave birth to Bitcoin in 2008 and remains a powerful driver of cryptocurrencies...It is currently expected that the Fed will cut rates by another 50 basis points before the end of the year, and China will also introduce additional fiscal stimulus measures. If both are achieved, I guess we will see a rebound in the fourth quarter. If we can't do that, I think disappointment could put pressure on the market."
Hougan's third factor is that cryptocurrencies "will not experience major negative surprises".
He explained: "To achieve an $80,000 rebound, the last thing we need is a period without major surprises. No major hacks. No large-scale new lawsuits. No previously locked tokens suddenly entering the market. Unfortunately, the history of cryptocurrencies has been plagued by countless such surprises. In the past few quarters, the release of previously locked Bitcoin from the failed exchange Mt. Gox and government vaults has kept the market range-bound."
