Inflation data breaks expectations! The Fed has no hope of cutting interest rates in November, and Bitcoin continues to be under pressure

The US September CPI was disappointing, with growth exceeding the expected 0.2%. fell, and this news may further increase the probability of the Fed pausing rate hikes at the next policy meeting in November. The September CPI rose 0.2%, and the core CPI rose 0.3%, both stronger than expected. This data reinforces the view that the Fed not only will not cut rates by 50 basis points in November, but may not cut rates at all. prices have been under pressure over the past 10 days, and data shows that after the announcement, prices fell further. According to the consumer price index (CPI) report released by the US government on Thursday morning, US inflation data in September was stronger than expected. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in September, higher than the 0.1% forecast by economists, and in line with the 0.2% increase in August. On an annualized basis, the September CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.3%, but slightly lower than the 2.5% in August. Excluding the more volatile food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.3% in September, higher than the expected 0.2% and in line with the 0.3% increase in August. The core CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.2% and the 3.2% in August. Over the past ten days, (BTC) prices have been under pressure. Data shows that after the announcement, prices fell further, currently trading at $60,800, down nearly 2% from 24 hours ago. The Fed surprised many in September by launching a rate cut cycle and cutting rates by 50 basis points at once, rather than the expected 25 basis points. This action triggered a sharp rise in cryptocurrency prices, as investors not only considered this rate cut, but also expected the Fed to make a similar large-scale rate cut at its next policy meeting in early November. However, due to hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jay Powell and other central bank officials, as well as the much stronger-than-expected employment report released last Friday, these expectations have undergone a major reversal over the past ten days, perhaps also leading to a significant correction in cryptocurrency prices during this period. According to the CME FedWatch tool (which converts short-term interest rate market pricing into the probability of the Fed's actions at each policy meeting), the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in November has now fallen to zero. In fact, before the release of this morning's inflation data, the interest rate market expected the probability of the Fed not cutting rates in November to rise to 26%, up from 0% a week ago. Today's inflation data may further reinforce the expectation that the Fed will pause rate cuts in November. However, slightly offsetting this disappointing CPI data may be the weak employment data. The number of initial jobless claims - which has been at very low levels for several weeks - surged to 258,000 last week, higher than the previous 225,000 and the expected 230,000. However, it is not yet clear how much the impact of Hurricane Helene has affected this data.