The Bitcoin price fluctuated not much on the weekend, but the long and short sides in the futures market are in a standoff, with buy and sell orders concentrated in relatively close positions, indicating that Bitcoin is about to see greater volatility.
From a historical perspective, if Bitcoin does not see a significant upward move in the next 14 days, this will be the longest sideways period in a halving year, similar to what happened in 2020, when Bitcoin consolidated for nearly 300 days before a strong rally.
The sideways period after the 2024 halving is approaching 285 days, and many short-term holders are feeling fatigued and exiting the market, which may be a process of long-term cleaning up of retail investors by the big players. Recent data shows that the supply of short-term holders has increased, while the supply of long-term holders has decreased, indicating that the second half of the bull market is forming, similar to the first wave driven by the spot ETF.
Zooming in on the timeline, the acceleration node of the trend was on October 6th, and in the 2020 bull market, a similar node of coin distribution acceleration appeared on October 20th. The conditions for the start of the bull market are already in place, and the current Bitcoin price is showing higher highs and higher lows, and only needs a catalyst, such as the US presidential election or other key events, to trigger a new round of bull market.
So how will the crypto market go before the catalyst arrives? Let's take a look at these key data points.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently approaching the neckline resistance of a Double Bottom, at around $64,500 for BTC and $2,520 for ETH, which are the key turning points for the short-term trend. Many ultra-short-term players have their take-profit points at these levels, so there is some resistance.
If you are already long, you can consider taking partial profits, rather than betting on it to break through now. You can adopt a right-side trading strategy, wait for the price to stabilize above the neckline, which is a bullish signal, and then add more positions. If it doesn't break through, that's also good news, as you can re-enter at a lower price.
From a long-term perspective, the issuance of USDT continues to rise, which is often a strong bullish signal. However, Bitcoin has seen bearish moves in the past half year, which has caused some investors to lose confidence. But I believe this is actually a bullish divergence, and the crypto market is still in a value bottom, with a potential breakout perhaps in the not-too-distant future.
After looking at the overall market, let's see what potential altcoins are worth laying in wait for recently!
PEOPLE
First, let's look at the daily chart:
- Black zone: Pierced the bottom OB in August and reached EQL, then oscillated in the discount area.
- Blue zone: Currently in the accumulation phase, has entered the premium area, and the probability of an upward breakthrough is relatively high.
- The daily chart suggests focusing on the retest of the D1 OB area, i.e., the EQ position of the blue zone, which is a buying opportunity.
Hourly chart: The current trend is oscillating upward, with the focus on the 0.0734 accumulation, which can be considered for buying.
FET
Daily chart structure
- FET pierced the OB zone to obtain liquidity in August and then oscillated and turned over, followed by a gradual upward oscillation.
- The current daily chart has broken the structure, and a retest is a buying opportunity.
- Focus on the 1.37 OB zone for the retest, which is the first buy-in point, and if it breaks below, then focus on the low point of 1.1 in the range.
Hourly chart structure
- Currently in a corrective downward trend, only a breakthrough of 1.568 can confirm the end of the downtrend, and a retest of around 1.5 can be considered for buying.
- Focus on the test of the OB zone, if it does not break below 1.37, you can consider buying first.
That's it for today's article. Currently in a bull market, with turbulent developments, we have crypto coin recommendations to share every day. If you don't know how to navigate the bull market, feel free to follow us, we can share spot market strategies and layout tactics for free.
