Many people may have a few relatively obvious feelings these days. In the past period, many people have been releasing information related to airdrops, and recently many people have continued to discuss the topic of MemeCoin. If you have experienced the overall market situation from last year to this year, is this development path familiar?
First, the airdrop topic began to be hyped, and at the same time some projects began to officially carry out airdrops; then various MemeCoin continued to appear with new wealth creation stories; then does it mean that a new round of market may be about to start?
But different from the airdrop season last year, after experiencing the peak of the previous airdrops, the current airdrop track has undergone major changes. In the past, many people could enjoy a luxurious Michelin set meal from the airdrops, but now most people can only enjoy a pork knuckle meal.
This has also led to the fact that more and more people seem to have little new interest in airdrops, and are more willing to gamble on MemeCoin or the like. Airdrops and MemeCoin have almost become the two topics with the highest attention of retail investors since the current bull market.
1. A simple chat about airdrops
In the past few days, the projects that have been discussed more are the airdrops of Puffer, Swell, CARV, etc., and in recent days, various KOLs and airdrop hunters have also been concentrating on releasing tutorials for participating in the airdrops of various projects.
Since the interactive airdrop gameplay started by Uniswap in 2020, airdrops have become one of the best launch methods for crypto projects, and this process has also been accompanied by a huge wealth effect. Many people have gained considerable returns by participating in early airdrops, making grabbing airdrops a popular money-making track, and even many professional airdrop studios have emerged.
In fact, before the Uniswap airdrop, the method of airdropping tokens also existed, such as the relatively hot ICO trend around 2017, where many people also made their first fortune in this field through ICOs. But with the various problems that later emerged in ICOs, the popularity of DeFi liquidity mining began to rise, until the Uniswap airdrop officially brought the interactive airdrop grabbing to the forefront.
With the passage of time, the development of things will naturally produce some new changes. Those users who participated in airdrop grabbing were initially important community members for the project parties, but in the end they gradually evolved into a string of cold wallet address data.
On the one hand, the project parties turn a blind eye to various airdrop studios, because the project parties need to use these studios to generate a large amount of interaction data, and then use these data to seek attention and raise funds. On the other hand, when actually conducting airdrops, the project parties will establish increasingly complex and strict witch detection in order to benefit, slaughter the donkeys, and carry out precise harvesting and sniping.
Especially since the popularity of point-based airdrops last year, this has further facilitated the internal operations (such as old rat warehouses) of the project parties. The result is that the project parties constantly engage in PUA, and then the airdrop grabbers start to counter-PUA, and the various airdrop grabbing methods are also constantly being improved, such as from manual massive airdrop grabbing in studios to using scripts for automated airdrop grabbing.
In short, in the face of ultimate interests, most users cannot escape the big scythe swung towards themselves. Although many people now talk about airdrops with trepidation, this is also an inevitable path of development of things. As for airdrops themselves, they can still be seen as a relatively high-probability event. It's just that for the project parties, the further it goes, the more difficult it will be to rely solely on PUA to deceive retail investors to participate; and for ordinary small investors, the further it goes, the more difficult it will be to use airdrops to make big money again.
2. A simple chat about MemeCoin
In the previous article (October 10th), we mentioned: Everyone should establish their own investment standards or investment system, don't guess the market casually, but anchor a kind of operation logic that you recognize.
For example, if you are interested in MemeCoin, but trading MemeCoin will have many execution angles, and different people may also have different angles, some people care most about the activity and influence of the MemeCoin community, some people care about whether there is the potential to be listed on major exchanges and liquidity, some people care about on-chain data (such as the number of holders, holding structure, etc.), some people care about the trend of the K-line, some people like to study the manipulation rhythm of the big players, some people like to use TGbot to rush into new projects... and so on.
You need to find the logic you recognize the most, and then trade according to your own logic, and continuously optimize your trading strategy. Rather than having no judgment logic, hearing someone say which MemeCoin can make money and rushing in directly, feeling that a certain MemeCoin will continue to skyrocket and clinging to it completely (long-term holding and completely clinging to it are two different concepts).
Remember in the previous MemeCoin topic series articles, we also sorted out a lot of on-chain tools, methods to find potential MemeCoin, and trading safety strategies for you. But these methods and strategies also need to be constantly tried and improved by yourself. Many things, when others decide to share them publicly, have actually lost their uniqueness, and what you need to do is to try to extrapolate on the basis of these historical experiences or historical methods, and form a new set of methods that suit you.
For example, for those who like to rush into new projects: some people will use messages to snipe and buy in at the first time, and some people will track the real-time movements of smart money wallets to buy in... and so on.
Take the method of using the search for smart money wallets' PNL (Profit and Loss) to track potential MemeCoin as an example. If you look at the publicly shared tutorials, this seems to be an easy thing to do, but if you just follow other people's tutorials to do it, you will actually find it very difficult to buy coins that increase 10 times or 100 times.
First of all, are the smart money wallets you found really smart wallets, or are they the project party's own wallets? These need to be comprehensively judged by you based on multiple dimensions. Secondly, even if the smart wallets seem real, are they specifically for retail investors to see? This also needs some basic judgment, as some project parties now buy old wallets to conduct deceptive orders.
What you want to see may sometimes be exactly what others want you to see. The public tutorials or methods you are using may also be known to the project parties. The so-called "the higher the Tao, the higher the devil", there is no unchanging method. The core thing we need to do is to establish our own set of operation logic, and then constantly optimize the corresponding methods based on this logic, so that we can maintain a leading position in the corresponding niche as much as possible.
Of course, if you can't form your own logic or methodology in a short period of time, the simplest way is to just go and buy the head (leading) projects you think are good in batches.
For example, if you think and are optimistic about the Runes track having new opportunities in the coming period, then just go and buy the head project (such as the No. 1 dragon) is fine. And if you don't know what Runes is now, then you shouldn't do any trading operations.
Since we mentioned Runes above, let's talk a little more about it. In the past two weeks, the overall rise of the Runes track seems quite good, with the prices of many coins rising over 100%. As shown in the figure below.
Taking DOG as an example, the increase in the past month has exceeded 120%, and from the perspective of token holding, the PVP phenomenon of obtaining DOG empty blocks from previously holding Runestone seems to be still quite serious. The recent rebound in the Runes sector may be more due to the surge in the prices of the top Runes projects, which has driven the FOMO sentiment.
In addition, from the perspective of trading volume, the daily trading volume trend of the Runes market also shows signs of recovery, as shown in the figure below.
At the same time, I would like to remind you that since many people are trading Runes through portals such as the OKX Web3 wallet, you need to be aware of fraud and perform necessary checks before operating (such as verifying the Runes ID, the number of holders, etc.), because the Runes you search for may also be fake (anyone can deploy projects on the chain), and the trading volume of fake Runes can be manipulated by the project party. As shown in the figure below.
Of course, we have only made a simple judgment that Runes seem to have signs of recovery based on the trading volume trend. As for whether the hype can continue to blow to the Runes sector in the future, it may still need to be combined with the trend of Bitcoin. Specifically, we can't say for sure. But as long as time and energy allow, it's not wrong to pay more attention to the opportunities in Runes.
From the current market situation, the PVP phenomenon in the Runes sector still seems to be quite serious, and the recent rebound in the Runes sector may be more due to the surge in the prices of the top Runes projects, which has driven the FOMO sentiment. For short-term operations, you can pay attention to setting stop-profit/stop-loss. If the subsequent liquidity is not sufficient to support new growth, those small Runes or the new Runes that have recently been hyped up will most likely experience a relatively large decline (the faster they rise, the faster they will fall).
If you don't have too much time and energy but don't want to miss the potential opportunities in Runes, the simplest way is to directly buy the top Runes with a small position (or a position that you can bear the corresponding volatility risk). Note that this is just a way of thinking, not a specific trading guidance, and it's not to let you go 'All In' on the Runes mentioned above like DOG. DYOR, don't forget the two basic rules of investment for beginners we shared before: preserve the principal and don't touch what you don't understand.
In general, the discussion on the topic of airdrops seems to be increasing recently, and some projects have also started to conduct airdrops; the heat of Runes is rising, which has also driven the rise of Glyphs and other accompanying MemeCoin; if there is no major black swan event in the future, the overall market trend seems to be bullish, and the market may only need or wait for a positive stimulus at this stage. As for when the next round of the market will start, we cannot predict, but if you are still optimistic about the crypto market, just ignore the short-term noise in the market and continue to wait patiently, as the money in the market will eventually flow from the hands of the majority of the restless to the hands of the few patient ones.
That's all for this issue. You can check more articles through the homepage. The above content is just my personal perspective and analysis, and is only for learning and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice.
