Source: @DefiIgnas
Each bull market brings new token issuance models, and understanding these trends may be the most profitable move. The airdrop points model of this cycle is led by projects like Jito and Jupiter. But as speculators frantically farm points, the yields quickly turn negative, and they end up spending more on airdrops than they earn, with airdrop farming ultimately being farmed back.
However, the points model is just one step in our exploration of the optimal token issuance model. From the Litecoin BTC fork that required running PoW machines, to ICOs, and then to DeFi's liquidity mining, the pattern is clear: with each cycle, token issuance becomes easier! And the valuations keep rising as well.
High FDV (fully diluted valuation) token issuances leave little upside room for new buyers, signaling the decline of the points model. Now, I believe the market is undergoing self-correction. As new buyers are not interested, the valuations of low-liquidity tokens have already declined, but new token issuances are still raising funds and designing TGEs for old models, as in 2023. These fixed-term constraints limit their growth potential. Those TGEs that don't adapt to the new models will perform poorly in the future. And the slower new token issuances adapt, the longer the meme coin frenzy will continue. Meme coins are a hedge trade against VC tokens, with no utility, no revenue, and no future products.
Besides meme coins, another notable change is a return to pre-points era models: protocols like Eigenlayer are reverting to "programmatic incentives," indicating the market is returning to liquidity mining. We also see the rise of a "private-public" sale model: on platforms like @echodotxyz and @legiondotcc, you can participate and invest in projects that VC are involved in. This means lower valuations and similar lock-ups to the ICO era, but accessing these projects also requires some social capital: on @echodotxyz, you need to be invited or accepted into an exclusive group. And on @legiondotcc, your social or on-chain reputation determines whether you can access these deals. Your speculative activities prove you are qualified to join the ranks of influencers and VCs.
But these methods won't solve all token issuance problems, as the number of participants is limited. @CoinList "solved" this by randomly allocating ICO quotas. Interestingly, CoinList has been around for years, so we've actually come full circle! However, I believe merit-based access is better, as you'll be incentivized to build on-chain or off-chain reputation. So, make sure you actively post for projects you like, as you may be rewarded with token allocations. Eigenlayer and Avail are two examples of the "speak-to-earn" model growing.
Another potentially emerging model is Infinex_app's "Patron Sales." Infinex combines points and merit-based ICOs, where you need to earn points to participate in the ICO. Noticing that token sale participation is becoming increasingly difficult is a change we haven't seen in years. This marks a shift from liquidity mining, fair launches, and points models. Just like we finally realized that freely distributing tokens doesn't truly build a community!
But other models are more open to everyone. Runes on Bitcoin only require paying transaction fees to issue, although there is an (optional) pre-mine feature, maintaining transparency. They solve the lack of transparency in VC rounds, pre-sales, low-liquidity tokens, and meme coin issuances. Runes may provide the fairest token issuance model. You only need to pay Bitcoin transaction fees, and Bitcoin's low speed prevents the over-issuance and wallet concentration issues common on other chains. For example, the GIZMO•IMAGINARY•KITTEN token is free, and its current trading price is 26 times the initial listing price.
Obviously, Runes lack smart contract functionality to make them utility tokens, but more and more Bitcoin L2s can add these features. We're also experimenting with other minting models:
- "Tap-to-earn": popular in many developing countries, but the hype seems to be fading.
- Community/social tokens: Friend.tech pioneered this trend, but the trend of monetizing communities through tokens on Farcaster/Lens is growing (e.g., $DEGEN).
- "Active Verification Services": AVS enabled by re-collateralization protocols enhanced token utility (e.g., rsENA and Symbiotic, as well as re-collateralized MKR), although most AVS tokens are currently issued as VC tokens. Hopefully, they can innovate on token issuance soon.
More models are emerging. This is a good sign! The goal is to identify and participate in these new token issuance activities. Try out all the models and see which one is the most profitable relative to the effort put in. Some model (perhaps one I haven't mentioned here or one that hasn't emerged yet) will become the "new trend," and when it does, that may be the time to jump on board.