Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: October 7-11, 2024

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Performance of the Cryptocurrency Market

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.1 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.45%, which is $1.19 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $172.6 billion.

This week, the price of BTC has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price of BTC at $62,533 and ETH at $2,437. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, half have risen and half have fallen, with BabyDoge seeing a 46.26% increase in the past 7 days, NEIRO seeing a 57.35% increase, and MEME projects themed around the US election seeing rapid growth, including TRUMP with a 60.8% increase and MAGA with a 74.75% increase in the past 7 days.

This week, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $357.7 million, and the net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $1.9 million.

The "Fear & Greed Index" on October 11 was 32 (lower than the previous week), with the sentiment being neutral for 5 days and fearful for 2 days this week.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. On October 8, a judge approved the FTX bankruptcy plan;

2. Bitget will fully compensate users affected by the abnormal fluctuations of BGB, and the compensation will be completed within 72 hours;

3. Musk retweeted Polymarket's US election prediction data, claiming it is more accurate than opinion polls;

4. Vitalik sold another 10 billion MOODENG and transferred 260.16 ETH to the Kanro charity;

5. The US government appears to be able to freely sell the 69,370 BTC confiscated from the Silk Road;

6. The Sui mainnet has launched its native USDC;

7. Babylon announced that Cap -2 has been completed, with a total of nearly 23,000 BTC staked;

8. The Trump family's World Liberty Financial has officially proposed to launch on the Aave Ethereum mainnet;

9. The decentralized open-source AI platform OpenGradient has completed an $85 million seed round, with investments from a16z CSX and others;

10. On October 10, Animoca Brands announced that it will increase its holdings of PROS tokens through the public market;

11. Fidelity plans to launch its first money market fund that trades on the blockchain;

12. Musk has changed his Twitter profile picture to an image with the "WE, ROBOT" characters;

13. Uniswap Labs has announced the launch of Unichain;

14. BlockTower received 653,000 EIGEN, worth approximately $2.38 million, from Wintermute 10 minutes ago;

15. On October 10, OKX Star: will set up a regional headquarters in Dubai, has obtained a Dubai license and met regulatory requirements.

Macroeconomic

1. On October 8, Crypto.com has filed a lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to protect the future of cryptocurrencies in the US;

2. On October 9, the cryptocurrency investment firm Canary Capital submitted an application to the SEC for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), becoming the second company to apply for such a product this month;

3. On October 10, the SEC, FBI, and DOJ filed lawsuits against four crypto companies on October 9 for alleged fraud and market manipulation, including Gotbit Consulting, ZM Quant Investment, and CLS Global;

4. On October 11, the US September PPI year-on-year was 1.8%, expected 1.6%, previous 1.7%;

5. On October 12, according to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed cutting 25 basis points in November is 95.6%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 4.4%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by December is 84.1%, the probability of a 75 basis point cut is 0%, and the probability of a 100 basis point cut is 0%.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period from October 7 to October 11, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $357.7 million; as of October 11, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $20.141 billion, and currently holds $13.888 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $23.362 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is $60.511 billion.

The net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $1.9 million.

Foresee the Future

1. London Web3 Week will be held from October 7 to 17, with Zebu Live 2024 as one of the largest Web3 events in the UK, to be held in London on October 10 and 11, focusing on topics such as AI and blockchain, sustainable development, and digital transformation, with guests including Robby Yung, Chief Investment Officer of Animoca Brands, and Sergej Kunz, Co-founder of 1inch Network;

2. The 2024 Shanghai Blockchain International Week will be held from October 11 to 19 in various venues in Hongkou, Shanghai, and on October 17, the "10th Global Blockchain Summit" hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Labs will be held at the Shanghai Innovation and Creativity Design Research Institute (505 Donglang Road, the former site of Rayson De Engineering College), with the theme of "Continuing the Vitality of the Industry on the Shoulders of Giants";

3. Pragma San Francisco will be held on October 16-17 at the Contemporary Jewish Museum in San Francisco, USA, an intimate one-day in-person summit organized by ETHGlobal, followed by the ETHGlobal San Francisco Ethereum hackathon event from October 18-20 in San Francisco, USA;

4. The Avalanche annual summit LATAM will be held from October 16 to 18 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, where Avalanche will unveil an important upgrade - Avalanche 9000. Attendees include Emin Gün Sirer, CEO of Ava Labs, Rebecca Barkin, CEO and Co-founder of Lamina1, and Rob Hadick, General Partner of Dragonfly.

Project Progress

1. Blast will launch a 10-week Mobile Big Bang Bootcamp from October 14 to December 20, 2024, providing $250,000 in funding support for the selected development teams. Blast stated that "for companies that have never raised funds before, Blast will invest at a post-valuation of $15 million. For companies that have already raised or are currently raising, the terms will usually follow the same terms as the previous or current round";

2. The Eigen Foundation has postponed the first reward claim date for the Programmatic Incentives v1 by one week to October 15, 2024, to ensure that only eligible non-investor EIGEN stakers and qualified operators can receive the programmatic rewards for their activities prior to transferability (i.e., up to September 30, 2024);

3. The cross-chain interoperability protocol deBridge's token DBR and airdrop will be launched on October 17, 2024.

Token Unlocks

1. The SuperRare token RARE will unlock approximately 13.34 million tokens on October 17, worth approximately $1.51 million, accounting for 1.33% of the current circulating supply;

2. The ApeCoin token APE will unlock approximately 15.38 million tokens on October 17, worth approximately $10.83 million, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating supply;

3. The Polyhedra Network token ZKJ will unlock approximately 15.5 million tokens on October 19, worth approximately $17.33 million, accounting for 1.55% of the circulating supply;

4. The Pixels token PIXEL will unlock approximately 53.55 million tokens on October 19, worth approximately $6.78 million, accounting for 1.07% of the circulating supply.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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