Technical Analysis Faction
@CryptosLaowai
Believes that at this position, BTC has already broken through the supply line above and the intersection of a demand line of this cycle. From the form, this round of upward trend is very similar to the trend at the end of August, with the upward trend forming a flag and then a false breakout downward. From the liquidation heat map, there is currently not much short position liquidity to be obtained upward, but there is a large amount of long position liquidity that can be obtained downward. His short position average price is currently around $65,000, with a downside target set around $55,000. He does not believe that there will be a new trend at the end of the year, and the real bull market will not start until 2025.@yekoikoi
Believes that from July 29th to the present, the structure of BTC has been very good, and this time after breaking through the demand line, it has not fallen smoothly as before, but has found support in the $59,800 range. $59,800 is the 50% position of the upward trend from September 6th to the present. From the perspective of retesting, this is a good retest, and the moving averages on the daily chart are starting to form a bullish arrangement. The Wyckoff accumulation structure has emerged, and there is a major force accumulating. Considering the last demand point (LPS) as $65,000 to $60,000, demand has always been greater than supply, that is, buying is greater than selling. Currently, it is still necessary to wait for the breakout confirmation, and the bottom long positions will be held firmly without new operations.@Patrade_Buer
Daily level: The upward trend has emerged, and the $59,000 position mentioned in the October report is the last opportunity to get on board; continue to focus on the test of the bearish OB, whether it is a direct breakthrough to hit the range-H or a rejection downward distribution retest; the retest focus positions are still $64,500 and $63,000, the retest is the buying position. The spot order focus is still around $63,000. Hourly level: After the up and down needle absorption on October 15th, it rose again. If you want to short, it is safer to focus on the test of the bullish OB on the H1, and if the real body breaks below, the retest is the opportunity to short; the trend is still bullish, here first look at the IDM plunder and then test the H1 bullish OB accumulation buying opportunity; if it breaks below the H1 bullish OB, then expect the correction we expected, focus on the plunder of $64,500 (short-term) blue range-L and then the accumulation buying opportunity, and focus on the H4 bullish OB around $63,000 for accumulation buying opportunity.@siyizhisheng3
The current structure has been oscillating upward since the 5B bottom, with accumulated capital! The price of 67,000 has broken through the previous high of 66,500 on the daily line and entered the trajectory of the secondary channel, as shown in Figure 1: the red channel is the oscillating downward adjustment, and the white channel is the trajectory of the secondary channel, just out of the red adjustment channel into a new space! In the short term, the focus is on the bullish trend, but from the secondary channel, the current position is at the B turning point, which is the first wave of the new three-wave structure breaking out of the previous consolidation range, and the second wave is rising. From the trading structure, the B turning point position has an 80% chance of oscillating upward adjustment similar to climbing greater than accelerating! From the trading structure, I personally feel that Bitcoin needs to oscillate widely at the B turning point and then narrow the range before turning, and then accelerate the B turning! From the daily line to the weekly line, the weekly line is still in the consolidation channel pressure turning point area and has not broken through, as shown in Figure 3: the weekly BTC is still in the triangular pressure area, and the weekly line has only two possibilities in the triangular pressure area. 1. Break through the pressure triangle, the second weekly line does consolidation. 2. Oscillate and consolidate below the pressure line, the second line does accumulation. Regardless of which line it takes, the overall trend is that the short-term trend is initially biased to the upside, with the upside greater than the downside. Be cautious about shorting, the weekly line pressure, the daily line B turning point position, I think is mainly accumulation! The current major support has been raised to around $64,700, and the weekly line value has been raised to around $63,000. The daily line resistance area is around $68,600, and the weekly line resistance line is around $71,600.Macroeconomic Analysis Faction:
@Crypto_Painter
Believes that this round of upward trend may be related to the excessive premium of MSTR and its decoupling from BTC. MSTR began about 2 weeks ago, with market rumors that MSTR will be included in the QQQ index, completely decoupling from BTC and forming a sustained bullish trend. Hedge funds shorting MSTR while going long on BTC will narrow the premium difference between BTC and MSTR, which may bring potential 20%-30% returns to the hedge funds. Under the current market conditions, BTC has risen rapidly and is approaching a new high, while MSTR is oscillating around the new high. For hedge funds, this kind of arbitrage will be coming to an end, so the short-term bullish trend of BTC may stagnate.@Maoshu_CN
It is believed that the driving force behind this round of rise is that the US stock technology stocks are approaching the third quarter financial report, and investors are buying in more calmly than before, and under the premise of a good investment environment, the economic situation is also optimistic, the risk investment preference is increasing, the capital sector is flowing, the cryptocurrency market has attracted a part of the overflow liquidity again, the large-cap stocks are entering the small-cap stocks, and the large-cap stocks are entering BTC. This is enough to prove that the current market liquidity is still tight, and the excess liquidity from the profitability of technology stocks will gradually flow into small-cap stocks and BTC. I personally do not feel that it is related to the increase in Trump's winning rate. Those who trust Trump will always believe that he can win, and those who do not trust him will still feel that they do not trust him even if the approval rate is high now.
However, after the four major US stock indexes closed higher today, BTC did not gain more bullish momentum. According to the previous logic, the excess liquidity originally spilled out by the US stock market has reached a bottleneck. Going forward, unless the profitability of the US stock market is further upgraded and more liquidity is spilled out, or there is external stimulus, BTC will not be able to break through again. The initial jobless claims data tonight and the September retail data may become opportunities.
In terms of funds, the market value of on-chain stablecoins has increased by $100 million, currently at $173.2 billion: USDT: official website data 119.766 billion, no change from yesterday, Asian and European funds have temporarily stopped inflows, but the existing inventory is still sufficient. Trading volume continues to increase, and the activity of Asian and European funds is good; USDC: the data website shows that the market value has increased by $1.53 billion, and the trading volume has increased by 87.92%, which clearly shows that US funds have started to flow back and actively participate in trading, and the activity of the US time zone has resumed its past activity.
@Phyrex_Ni
It is believed that the short-term rise of BTC is strongly related to the purchasing power of BTC ETF. On the trading day of October 15, there was a direct net inflow of 4,323 BTC, and the inflow of funds brought by this data is close to $300 million. By associating the recent rise of BTC with BlackRock's financial report, it can be clearly seen that under the stimulus of the positive news of BlackRock's financial report, the purchasing power for #BTC has been greatly enhanced, and it has considerable support for the price of BTC.
Even apart from BTC, most institutions in the US are maintaining a positive inflow, with only three institutions still maintaining zero, and the other nine institutions are all in positive inflow, with no outflow at all. Even Grayscale's two ETFs have 635 BTC, so the stimulus of BlackRock not only affects itself, but the influx of huge funds into BlackRock has also allowed other ETF institutions to see the spring.
Although the other buying power is not very large, it can also be clearly seen that the user's FOMO sentiment is starting to increase, which may be the start of Q4. After all, we have said countless times that there are too many positive factors in Q4, which are very worth looking forward to. Yesterday, 6,035 BTC flowed into the BTC spot ETF, and more funds are flowing towards BTC.
Data Analysis Team:
@CryptoPainter_X
It has been observed that the negative premium state of Coinbase BTCUSD spot and USDT has lasted for 16 days, and it can be confirmed: first, USDT has been in a negative premium state overall in these 16 days, indicating that some funds have flowed out of the stablecoin market; secondly, the Coinbase spot market has been in a state of outflow throughout these 16 days; and the futures market has had strong buying power, which is the driving force for the price. It needs to be confirmed whether there is follow-up of spot buying power, the futures-led bullish trend is rapid, and it is very likely to quickly break through 69,000 or 70,000. If there is no follow-up of spot buying power, there will eventually be a huge downward wick line for the liquidation of long positions.
From the Fear and Greed Index, the Fear and Greed Index has broken through 70 for the first time since July 29, reaching a "Greed" state.
The red curve in the figure is the trend of the Fear and Greed Index over the past year. If it is viewed as an indicator similar to RSI, then each time the closing price makes a new low but the index does not make a new low, it can be seen as a divergence, which seems to be a way to judge tops and bottoms.
Previously, the 52,000 price closed at a new low, but the index did not, indicating a bottom; similarly, if the current price cannot break through 7w for a long time, but the index makes a new high, it may also indicate a certain top signal.
@Xbt886
It has been observed that the comparison interval has been broken through, so I will move the VP anchor point to the low point of July 5-7.
Combining the VP from March 6 to the present
It is believed that:
1. 65,754 is the current support, and if it is broken, the upward trend of this segment will end
2. The resistance above is 69,544, which is a potential target, note the word "potential"
3. It is not worth trading here, wait for a breakthrough or wait for a breakdown
4. Looking at the VP over the past half year, the VAH is 70,110
@biupa
Observed the current market:
TWAP buying - Binance, OK - Chinese capital
TWAP selling - CB, Kraken, Bybit - Western capital
CVD is downward, active selling is in the majority
But the market is rising, and the big players are using iceberg orders to support the market, causing the CVD to not fall (active sell orders are absorbed by iceberg buy orders)
If this main force is strong enough to absorb up to above 70, and hold until the retail investors come back, the bull will return;
If the main force is exhausted prematurely, it will start to dump.
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