On October 10th, the US market, BTC fell below the $60,000 mark, and a single $10 million long position was liquidated. It then began to rise unilaterally, with a maximum increase of 15.83%. This unilateral upward surge was extremely unexpected, with basically no retracement and a rapid rise.
The macroeconomic environment seems to have not changed significantly in these few days, and traders have not made significant adjustments to the pricing of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in November. The performance of US stocks and gold has also been relatively stable. What factors have led to such a strong performance of BTC? Is this an independent market of BTC or is the liquidity from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut gradually spilling over to the cryptocurrency market?
How should we view this intensity of the rise? Is this a consensus that the bull market has returned, or is it a false breakout of the volume contraction? Traders in the market all have their own views.
Technical Analysis Camp
@CryptosLaowai
Believes that at this position, BTC has already broken through the supply line above and the intersection of a demand line of this cycle. From the form, this round of upward trend is very similar to the trend at the end of August, with the rise appearing a flag and then a false breakout downward. From the liquidation heat map, there is currently not much short position liquidity to be obtained upwards, but there is a large amount of long position liquidity that can be obtained downwards. His short position average price is currently around $65,000, and the downside target is set around $55,000. He does not believe that there will be a new trend at the end of the year, and the real bull market will not start until 2025.
@yekoikoi
Believes that from July 29th to the present, the structure of BTC has been very good, and this time after breaking through the demand line, it has not fallen smoothly as before, but has found support in the $59,800 range. $59,800 is the 50% position of the upward trend from September 6th to the present. From the perspective of retesting, this is a good retest, and the moving averages on the daily chart are starting to form a bullish arrangement. The Wyckoff accumulation structure has emerged, and there are main forces accumulating. From the perspective of clinging to the sword, the drop from $65,000 to $60,000 may be the position of the last point of supply (LPS), and the demand has always been greater than the supply, that is, the buying is greater than the selling. At present, it is still necessary to wait for the confirmation of the breakthrough, and the bottom long positions are firmly held without new operations.
@Patrade_Buer
Daily level: The upward trend has already emerged, and the 5w9 position mentioned in the October monthly report is the last boarding position; continue to focus on the test of the bearish OB, whether it is a direct breakthrough to hit the range-H or a rejection downward distribution retest; the retest focus positions are still $64,500 and $63,000, and the retest is the buying position. The spot order focus is still around $63,000.
Hourly level: After the up and down needle absorption on October 15th, it rose again. If you want to short, it is safer to focus on the test of the bullish OB on the H1, and only when the real body breaks through, the retest is the opportunity to short; the trend is still bullish, here first look at the IDM plunder after testing the H1 bullish OB accumulation buying opportunity; if it breaks through the H1 bullish OB, then expect the correction we expected, focus on the plunder of $64,500 (short-term) blue range-L after accumulation buying opportunity, and focus on the H4 bullish OB around $63,000 accumulation buying opportunity.
@siyizhisheng 3
Currently, the structure has been oscillating upwards since the 5B bottom, with accumulated capital! The price of 67,000 has broken through the previous high of 66,500 on the daily line and entered the trajectory of the secondary channel, as shown in the figure 1: the red channel is the oscillating downward correction, and the white channel is the trajectory of the secondary channel, just out of the red correction channel into a new space! In the short term, the focus is on the bullish trend, but from the secondary channel, the current position is at the B turning point, which is the first wave of the new three-wave structure, and the second wave is to raise the high. The current position is at the B turning point of the secondary channel.
From the trading structure, the B turning point position has an 80% chance of oscillating upwards, similar to climbing rather than accelerating! From the trading structure, I personally feel that Bitcoin needs to oscillate widely at the B turning point and then narrow the oscillation before turning around and accelerating the B turning point!
From the daily line to the weekly line, the weekly line is still in the pressure turning point area of the consolidation channel and has not broken through, as shown in figure 3: the weekly BTC is still in the triangular pressure area, and the weekly line has only two trends in the triangular pressure area.
1. Break through the pressure triangle, the second weekly line does consolidation.
2. Oscillate and consolidate below the pressure line, the second line does accumulation.
No matter which line it goes, the overall trend is comprehensive. The short-term trend is initially biased to the right side! The upward trend is greater than the downward trend. Be cautious about shorting, the weekly pressure, the daily B turning point position, I think is mainly accumulation!
Currently, the support at the major level has been raised to around $64,700, and the weekly value has been raised to around $63,000.
The daily resistance area is around $68,600, and the weekly resistance line is around $71,600.
Macro Analysis Camp:
@Crypto_Painter
Believes that this round of rise may be related to the excessive premium of MSTR and its decoupling from BTC. MSTR began about 2 weeks ago, and market rumors that MSTR will be included in the QQQ index, completely decoupling from BTC and forming a sustained bullish trend.
Hedge funds short MSTR while long BTC to narrow the premium spread, which may bring potential 20%-30% returns to the hedge funds.
Under the current market conditions, BTC has risen rapidly and is approaching a new high, while MSTR is oscillating around the new high, so for the hedge funds, this arbitrage will be coming to an end, so the short-term bullish trend of BTC may stagnate.
@Maoshu_CN
Believes that the driving force behind this round of rise is that investors are buying tech stocks more calmly as they approach the third quarter earnings report, and in the context of a good investment environment and optimistic economic conditions, risk investment preferences have increased, and capital has flowed across sectors, with the cryptocurrency market once again attracting some of the spilled liquidity, from large caps to small caps, and from large caps to BTC. This is enough to prove that the current market liquidity is still tight, and the excess liquidity from tech stock earnings will gradually flow into small caps and BTC. He also does not currently feel that it is related to Trump's increased approval rating, as those who trust Trump have always believed he can win the election, and those who do not trust him still do not trust him even if the approval rating is now higher.
However, after the four major US stock indexes closed higher today, BTC did not gain more bullish momentum. According to the previous logic, the excess liquidity originally spilled over from the US stock market has reached a bottleneck. Going forward, unless the profitability of the US stock market is further upgraded, spilling out more liquidity, or there is external stimulus, BTC will not be able to break through again. The weekly initial jobless claims tonight and the September retail data may become opportunities.
In terms of funds, the market value of stablecoins has increased by $100 million, currently at $173.2 billion: USDT: official website data shows $119.766 billion, unchanged from yesterday, and Asian-European funds have temporarily stopped inflows, but the existing inventory is still sufficient. Trading volume continues to increase, and the activity of Asian-European funds is not bad; USDC: the data website shows that the market value has increased by $1.53 billion, and the trading volume has increased by 87.92%, clearly showing that US funds have started to flow back and actively participate in trading, and the US time zone has resumed its past activity.
@Phyrex_Ni
Believes that the short-term rise of BTC is closely related to the purchasing power of BTC ETFs. On the trading day of October 15, there was a net inflow of 4,323 BTC, and the inflow of funds from this data was close to $300 million. By associating the recent rise in BTC with BlackRock's earnings report, it can be clearly seen that under the stimulus of BlackRock's positive earnings report, the purchasing power for #BTC has been greatly enhanced, and it has provided considerable support for the price of BTC.
Even apart from BTC, most institutions in the US are maintaining a positive inflow, with only three institutions still maintaining zero, and the other nine institutions are all in positive inflow, with no outflow at all. Even Grayscale's two ETFs have 635 BTC, so the stimulus from BlackRock not only affects itself, but also allows other ETF institutions to see the spring.
Although the other buying power is not very large, it can also be clearly seen that users' FOMO sentiment is starting to increase, and this may already be the start of Q4. After all, we have said countless times that there are too many positive factors in Q4, and it is very worth looking forward to. Yesterday, the BTC spot ETF had an inflow of 6,035 BTC, and more funds are flowing towards BTC.
Data Analysis Team:
@CryptoPainter_X
Observed that the negative premium state of Coinbase BTCUSD spot and USDT has lasted for 16 days, and it can be confirmed: first, USDT has been in a negative premium state overall in these 16 days, indicating that some funds have flowed out of the stablecoin market; secondly, the Coinbase spot market has been in a state of outflow throughout these 16 days; and the futures market buying has been very strong, driving the price. It needs to be confirmed whether there is follow-up spot buying, as the futures-led bullish trend is rapid, and it is very likely to quickly break through 69,000 or 70,000. If there is no follow-up spot buying, there will eventually be a huge downside wick targeting the long liquidity.
From the Fear and Greed Index, the Fear and Greed Index has broken through 70 for the first time since July 29, reaching a "Greed" state.
The red line in the chart is the trend of the Fear and Greed Index over the past year. If it is viewed as an indicator similar to RSI, then each time the closing price makes a new low but the index does not make a new low, it can be seen as a divergence, which seems to be a way to judge tops and bottoms.
Previously, the 52,000 price closed at a new low, but the index did not, indicating a bottom; similarly, if the current price cannot break through 70,000 for a long time, but the index makes a new high, it may also signal a potential top.
@Xbt 886
Observed that the comparison interval has already been broken through, so I will move the VP anchor point to the low point of July 5-7.
Combined with the VP from March 6 to the present
Believes:
1. 65,754 is the current support, and if it is broken, the upward trend of this segment will end
2. The resistance above is 69,544, a potential target, note the word "potential"
3. It is not worth trading here, wait for a breakout or a breakdown
4. Looking at the VP over the past half year, the VAH is 70,110
@biupa
Observed the current market:
TWAP buying - Binance, OKX - Chinese capital
TWAP selling - Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit - Western capital
CVD is downward, active selling dominates
But the market is rising, with the big players using iceberg orders to support the market, causing the CVD to not fall (active sell orders are absorbed by iceberg buy orders)
If this major player is strong enough to absorb up to above 70, and hold until the retail investors come back, the bull will return;
If the major player runs out of power prematurely, they will start to dump.
