Benefiting from the deep development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s launch of a monetary easing policy cycle, the US stock market has ushered in a "long bull market" this year.
Not only have the stock prices of Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla continued to rise this year, the S&P 500 index, one of the four major US stock indices, hit a new high of 47 times this year on October 14, approaching the 6,000-point mark, with a year-to-date increase of 23.19%.
Bank of America: Investor optimism is still intensifying
Against this background, a survey report on fund managers released by Bank of America earlier this week shows that due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the rising expectations of a soft landing in the economy, and the epic monetary stimulus measures launched by the Chinese government since the end of September, global investors' optimism is still intensifying, and the largest increase since mid-2020 occurred in October.
However, it is worth noting that Bank of America also pointed out in the report that the global stock market has shown the first sell signal since February 2021, as the current cash allocation ratio has dropped from 4.2% to 3.9%, reaching the lowest level since February 2021.
Stifel strategist: The S&P 500 index may see a major correction next year
Faced with the current hot market conditions, the lingering fear of a sudden collapse has always been a topic of discussion, but it has not yet materialized.
In this regard, Barry Bannister, the chief equity strategist of the top Wall Street investment bank Stifel, pointed out in an interview with CNBC this week that the current market optimism may not last too long, and although the S&P 500 index may reach above 6,000 points this year, it may see a significant 25% correction next year as inflation rebounds:
According to the pattern of market development, the S&P 500 index may grow another 10% to around 6,400 points this year, but by 2025, accompanied by a rebound in inflation, the S&P 500 may see a significant 25% correction, returning to the level at the beginning of 2024.
