I. Attention Value - Market Highlights
1. Market Trends
（1）Macro Domain:
l US and European stocks rebound strongly, Nasdaq futures up 1% pre-market
Last Friday, the non-farm payroll data came in lower than expected, once again triggering market concerns about a US economic recession, dragging down US stocks. Japanese and South Korean stocks both opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index falling as much as 3% at one point, but the declines were later narrowed. With expectations of a significant Fed rate cut in September, US and European stocks have rebounded significantly, with most tech stocks rising, including Tesla which gained over 2%.
（2）Web3 Domain:
l Bitcoin ETFs in the US record longest streak of net outflows
With the Fed rate cut looming, the anxiety in global markets has spread to the digital asset space. The US Bitcoin trading has seen the longest daily net outflows since its launch earlier this year. Over an 8-day period from August 30 to September 6, investors withdrew nearly $1.2 billion from a total of 12 ETFs.
Last week, the US employment data was a mixed bag, and the uncertainty about the US economic outlook is impacting the cryptocurrency market. The relationship between the cryptocurrency and stock markets is becoming increasingly tight. Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate and decline in September, falling about 7% so far. Bitcoin prices saw a slight uptick over the weekend, currently trading at $54,925.
Figure 1: Bitcoin Price Trend
Source: Dot Labs
2. Hot Events
Web3 Domain:
l Farcaster enters a low-growth phase, with daily new users declining from a peak of around 15,000 in early February to the current level of around 650
Farcaster, the Web3 social network highly praised by Vitalik, has entered a low-growth phase, with daily new users declining from a peak of around 15,000 in early February to the current level of around 650, similar to the struggling development of another social app, Lens. Meanwhile, Farcaster's DAU has dropped from a peak of 100,000 in early July to 60,000, a decline of about 40%; in addition, Farcaster's post volume and engagement have also dropped by more than 60% from their peaks. Earlier, the once-popular social app Friend.tech's developer announced the abandonment of smart contract control, and the platform has basically shut down. In May 2022, Farcaster completed a $150 million Series A round led by Paradigm, with a valuation of $1 billion.
l A subsidiary of Tokyo Electric Power is experimenting with mining using renewable energy surplus, with potential annual revenue of $2.5 billion
According to Mars Finance, Agile Energy X, a subsidiary of the Tokyo Electric Power grid company, has announced the start of installing Bitcoin mining equipment next to solar power plants in Tochigi and Gunma prefectures, using the surplus renewable energy for mining experiments. The company's representative Kenji Tateiwa said that mining can provide new revenue sources for power generation companies and promote further deployment of green energy. According to Agile Energy X's estimates, if renewable energy accounts for nearly half of the country's power supply, the electricity consumed by about 70 million households per year will be wasted. If 10% of this can be used for Bitcoin mining, it is estimated to generate an annual revenue of about 360 billion yen ($2.5 billion). This move aims to solve the problem of renewable energy generation volatility and waste, while supporting Japan's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
3. Hot Narratives
Fractal Bitcoin, a Bitcoin scaling solution, tweeted that its mainnet has gone live, with the first block already mined. It has partnered with UniSat Wallet and OKX Wallet, and will provide rewards to active Bitcoin users through the Fractal Mainnet Bootstrap program, as well as first-season developer incentives. It also plans to launch a voting platform that will use OP_CAT to allow Fractal holders to vote on key proposals.
From the very beginning, people have been looking forward to whether a "new asset frenzy" like last year's Lummis can be replicated on Fractal, and the attention has now shifted to two other points. The first is the "mining" of "grabbing the first block", and the second is the new infrastructure related to OP_CAT. Since the latter will take some time to materialize after the mainnet launch, it can be said that the current biggest and most direct hot spot related to Fractal is "mining". Among the NFT projects related to "mining", the ones with the highest attention are FSIC and ASIC.
4. Potential Catalysts
The Debate Between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
As BeInCrypto previously pointed out, the upcoming presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is making cryptocurrency a focal point of attention. Both candidates have made this topic a core part of their campaign. Recent reports suggest that Harris seems to be increasingly enthusiastic about policies supporting cryptocurrencies.
At the same time, Trump has made optimistic comments about Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, gaining support from industry insiders. Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman predicted that the debate will be "very intense", acknowledging that both Trump and Harris have the ability to stand their ground. According to CoinGecko data, PolitiFimeme has already seen some volatility due to the anticipated debate, with some Trump-inspired coins achieving double-digit gains.
US Consumer Price Index
This week, inflation has become a focus, with the Fed set to release the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the less significant Producer Price Index (PPI) before its next meeting. These data points may play a key role in the Fed's interest rate decision. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the August CPI on Wednesday, September 11th. In July, the inflation rate fell from 3% in June to 2.9%, a shift that boosted Bitcoin's performance.
Economists now expect the inflation rate to further decline to 2.7%, and if this expectation materializes, Bitcoin's strength will be further enhanced. The core CPI (excluding volatile items like food and energy) is expected to decline from 3.2% in July to 3.1% in August. The overall CPI and core CPI are both expected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month in August.
II. Attention Value - Trending Projects
1. Social Media Highlights
Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially listed and traded. Although reduced revenue and whale exits have led to a significant recent decline in $ETH, the market remains generally optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.
Key Projects:
· io.net
io.net is a decentralized computing network that aims to provide computing power for machine learning by aggregating nearly 1 million GPUs from independent data centers, cryptocurrency miners, and projects like Filecoin and Render. It has distinctive products like IO Workers, IO Cloud, and IO Browser, and is valued at over $1 billion on Solana.
At the end of August, the project launched a staking program, requiring GPU and CPU providers to lock up a certain amount of $IO based on the capacity of their devices and their contribution to the network, in order to enhance the security and performance of the GPU Internet (IOG) network, while providing community members the opportunity to earn rewards through contributions. The program successfully raised around $1.5 million within a week of launch. Meanwhile, the project has partnered with Flock.io to create Proof of AI (PoAI), which is expected to significantly improve AI model training and inference on the network.
2. Smart Money Allocation
· Smart Money Holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. Mog(@MogCoinEth /X)
$Mog is an emerging cultural token, unlike traditional meme coins focused on animals, it centers on deeper cultural values such as politics, lifestyle, and religion, and is the native ERC-20 cryptocurrency token of the Mog Coin ecosystem, playing a core role in platform operations. Compared to traditional meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, $Mog, which focuses on deeper cultural themes, may achieve greater growth and profit potential in the current cycle, marking a shift in meme coin investment from simple entertainment to deeper cultural affinity.
2. POPCAT(@POPCATSOLANA /X)
$POPCAT is a meme coin based on the Solana blockchain, initially launched in October 2020. The meme features a cat named "Oatmeal" rapidly switching between closed and open mouth states, creating a "pop" visual effect, aiming to leverage this popular cultural phenomenon to attract community engagement and investment. $POPCAT's market cap has soared to nearly $273 million this year, with over 22,000 followers on X and a Telegram group with over 5,700 members, making it the third most popular meme coin in the Solana ecosystem.
· Smart Money Inflow
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. WOJAK(@wojakcoineth /X)
$WOJAK is an ERC-20 token based on the Ethereum blockchain, inspired by the popular Wojak meme, a cartoon face expressing a variety of emotions. The token was launched on April 17, 2023, aiming to build a decentralized platform connecting global meme enthusiasts and promoting community interaction and creative expression. The project plans to launch an "Anonthology" Non-Fungible Token (NFT) series to reward long-term holders and establish cultural connections with other meme coins.
2. LST(@marginfi /X)
MarginFi is a leading lending protocol in the Solana decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, standing out in the market with its innovative strategies. At the end of last year, MarginFi further expanded its business scope by launching its own liquidity staking token $LST, making it one of the platforms with the highest natural yields for all liquidity staking on Solana.
III. Attention Value - Sector Rotation
1. Hot Sectors
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Sector Rotation
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
