Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 22 points on Polymarket, raising concerns about the possibility of manipulation. Tarek Mansour, the founder of the prediction market Kalshi, argued that these results are accurate and not due to manipulation, based on similar data from Kalshi.
Source: Polymarket
Mansour refuted claims from the media that a few large whales are skewing the odds in favor of Trump. He emphasized that "the medium bet for Harris is higher than the medium bet for Trump," with Harris at $85 compared to Trump's $58. He also pointed out that more individuals on Kalshi are betting on Trump, and the 20-point gap on Polymarket reflects the number of people who believe Trump will win the election in November.
Mansour stressed that Kalshi is a "US-only prediction market," unlike Polymarket, thereby refuting allegations that the current odds are the result of manipulation from abroad. He concluded that "Prediction markets are a new source of truth, unbiased."
Industry executives and political experts have had lively debates about the value and utility of prediction markets compared to traditional opinion polls. Billionaire Elon Musk believes that prediction markets are often more accurate than polls, as financial incentives affect the outcome.
However, critics argue that the exclusion of US individuals from using Polymarket may undermine the legitimacy of the results from this platform. Previously, Vice President Harris had led Trump for a portion of August and most of September, with a margin typically only a few percentage points. However, in the first half of October, Trump has started to significantly increase his odds of winning the Oval Office on the prediction platform.
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According to Cointelegraph
