Last week was a wonderful and very positive time for [BTC] Bitcoin. It witnessed a strong increase of nearly 10%, from $62,500 to $69,400, thanks to strong demand from the spot market.
The recent surge has brought BTC just 7% away from its all-time high of $73,700 it reached in March.
According to Stockmoney Lizards analyst, last week's surge has reversed the momentum that was pushing BTC into a downtrend and could be propelled by historical price uptrends related to the US elections.
He noted that the momentum of Bitcoin has turned bullish for the first time in the latter half of 2024.
"The momentum is shifting to the upside"
For reference, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a momentum indicator that measures BTC's price relative to recent midpoints. It indicates whether it is overbought or oversold.
The current index on the two-week chart shows a recovery above the neutral 50 level, signaling that a bullish reversal is underway.
This is similar to the 2020 trend right before [Bitcoin] BTC broke out of its consolidation range and could signal an impending price breakout.
BTC: Pre-US Election Trends
The analyst further noted that strong BTC price rallies related to before US elections could repeat.
In 2016 and 2020, two weeks before the US elections, Bitcoin surged 10% and 18% respectively.
If this trend repeats in 2024, Stockmoney Lizards forecasts a new all-time high before the US elections could occur.
"For 2024, this means we could see a new all-time high before the election (+10% = $74,000) with a strong surge in October One and October Two."
But do the on-chain indicators also lean towards this bullish outlook?
Since July, the overall interest and network growth of BTC has stagnated, as evident from the number of active addresses.
While this could slow down an explosive move for Bitcoin, whales have been actively accumulating positions.
From last week, whales have been holding more BTC positions compared to retail, as per the positive Whale vs. Retail Delta data. This implies that whales are aggressively accumulating and confident in the bullish trend.
However, the decline in this metric could mark a correction for BTC, with $66,000 being a crucial support level if a short-term pullback occurs.
