Although Bitcoin has touched $69,000 multiple times but failed to stabilize, it even fell below $67,000 this morning, but analysts are still bullish on the market and have listed many positive factors.
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ToggleBernstein Remains Bullish
Research firm Bernstein has maintained a bullish stance, and they have listed several positive factors again:
Approaching Election: Trump's chances of winning are constantly rising, and Kamala Harris recently promised to lead emerging technologies like Blockchain. Trump's winning probability on Polymarket is now 65%, while Harris has dropped to 35.1%.
Strong Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $2.1 billion last week, the highest weekly inflow since the second week of March, with total inflows reaching $21 billion and assets under management hitting a new high of $66 billion.
Retail Sentiment Soaring: Robinhood's crypto trading revenue grew 160% year-over-year, and the surge of meme coins also indicates a bullish retail market sentiment.
Bernstein analysts pointed out that the ETF inflows are mainly from asset management institutions' distribution to wealth advisors and brokerages, rather than the initial derivative arbitrage trades; and the market seems to no longer overly worry about the potential risks of a Harris victory, but rather view the current environment as an opportunity to enter.
Bitcoin ETF Assets Hit New High
According to SoSoValue, after six consecutive days of net inflows, the assets of the Bitcoin spot ETFs have exceeded $66.11 billion (accounting for 4.88% of the BTC market cap), surpassing the previous high of $62.6 billion set in early June.
The weekly net inflow of $2.13 billion is also the best performance since March 15.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas recently tweeted:
The total net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $20 billion for the first time, a milestone that was very difficult to reach in the ETF space, as it took the gold ETFs about 5 years to achieve, and the $65 billion in total assets is also a very large number.
CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Hits Record High
As of October 18, the open interest in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) exceeded $12.26 billion, setting a new all-time high, indicating that more participants are actively trading or holding Bitcoin futures positions.
This data has grown by more than 36% in the past two weeks, up more than 3.5% from the previous high of $11.84 billion in April.
This does not mean that Bitcoin will rise, as when the open interest in Bitcoin reached a record high in April, Bitcoin fell from $70,000 to $56,000.
Bitwise: November is Key
Bitwise's Head of European Research, André Dragosch, told The Block that the US presidential election on November 5 and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on November 8 are the key events.
He pointed out that traders are clearly biased towards Bitcoin call options, with the highest open interest in options expiring in the days after the US election and on November 8. Deribit data also shows over 3,100 call options with strike prices between $80,000 and $82,000, worth over $212 million; while put options are worth $82 million.
(US SEC Approves BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF Options to List on Nasdaq)
