QCP: Short-term implied volatility peaks on Election Day expiration, crypto markets still biased bullish

The latest QCP report indicates that the short-term implied volatility reached a peak at the expiration of the election day, with a difference of 10 percentage points compared to the previous expiration date. Although Bitcoin is currently about 8% lower than its historical high, the demand for call options exceeds that of put options. At the same time, the S&P 500 index has hit a new all-time high, and 20% of companies are about to release their earnings reports. The options market is inclined to protect itself by buying put options, and it is expected that the index will fluctuate by 1.8% on November 6, the day after the election. The correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks has reached a historical high of 0.83, which may signal a turning point in the market. Since both candidates are more supportive of cryptocurrencies than the previous government, the weakness in the stock market may drive capital flows to the cryptocurrency market. Trump's speech in Nashville pushed the implied volatility up to 85%, while the current implied volatility for the election expiration date is 55%. This suggests an opportunity for long-term volatility trading, as the potential delay in the election results (such as a recount) may lead to severe market fluctuations.