Cryptocurrency has never been so closely tied to the US presidential election, and the election results could trigger a full-fledged bull market. If Trump wins, what will the outlook be?
Cryptocurrency has become a campaign issue in the 2024 US presidential election, occupying a unique position.
Many in the industry support the former US president and Republican candidate Donald Trump, and his policy commitments to support cryptocurrency are seen as a potential catalyst for industry growth.
Polls show this is still a closely contested race, and cryptocurrency traders like Satoshi Flipper believe Trump's victory is not yet priced into the cryptocurrency market. Satoshi Flipper believes a Republican victory will strengthen the ongoing Bitcoin BTC and Altcoin bull market.
However, as the election approaches, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have shifted to support Trump, with his chances of winning rising to around 60%.
The huge gap has raised concerns about potential manipulation, but prediction market supporters like Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour have fiercely questioned this.
Millionaire Erik Finman told Cointelegraph that he is very optimistic about Trump's election victory, believing it will turn the US into a crypto-friendly environment, leading to a flood of investment into the cryptocurrency market. Finman believes "his policies will ignite the cryptocurrency market, driving a comprehensive and substantial growth."
"If Trump wins, I believe Bitcoin could reach $100,000 during his second term."
Anonymous cryptocurrency market analyst and trader Crypto Rand told Cointelegraph,
"The most optimistic aspect of a Trump administration is his non-hostile stance towards cryptocurrency. This attitude alone can change the game and make the US a leader in the cryptocurrency field."
But not everyone believes this, such as American businessman and "Shark Tank" star Mark Cuban, who has lobbied Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris for more crypto-friendly policies. He told Cointelegraph that if Trump wins, the cryptocurrency market may "rise for a few weeks" and then fall. He believes Trump's economic policies are inflationary, which could hinder Bitcoin's price trend.
Will Trump's pro-cryptocurrency policies promote the development of Bitcoin and Altcoins?
Trump has promised many pro-cryptocurrency policies that have attracted single-issue crypto voters.
The most important is that he has repeatedly stated that he will fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the "first day" of his presidency.
Experts say that while he may not be able to do this directly, he could demote Gensler to a regular commissioner and nominate a new candidate more aligned with his policy preferences. However, the US Senate would still have the final say.
Blockcircle CEO Basel Ismail said a new SEC chairman supportive of cryptocurrency would promote Bitcoin adoption and pave the way for an Altcoin revival.
Before the US election, several Altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) awaiting SEC approval have been filed, with XRP and Solana emerging as potential frontrunners.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas previously told Cointelegraph that Trump may appoint a new SEC commissioner who "doesn't care" about the processes followed in recent years, and futures data has played a crucial role in the spot ETF approval process.
He concluded, "In my view, if Trump wins, we may see other tokens become ETFs."
Trump's many ambitious pro-cryptocurrency policy commitments clearly show his desire for the US to become the "crypto capital of the world." Crypto Rand believes that while Trump's promise to establish a cryptocurrency advisory council may not have garnered much attention, this commitment is significant.
He believes Congress and the SEC have repeatedly shown a lack of understanding of the crypto industry and its dynamics. A proper council composed of industry experts would help provide advice and develop more suitable regulations.
Finman said Trump's commitment to reducing regulatory barriers will liberate the crypto industry and attract massive investment in crypto companies.
Galaxy Digital research chief Alex Thorn believes that clarifying cryptocurrency regulatory rules could benefit Altcoins more than Bitcoin.
He believes Bitcoin currently dominates the market, which is related to its favorable regulation compared to Altcoins. If Trump implements his proposed crypto policies, Altcoins could surge, even surpassing Bitcoin.
Finman believes Trump's election will be a "rising tide lifts all boats," but Crypto Rand believes the gains will be concentrated in artificial intelligence and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), which he says are "more likely to lead the market upswing."
Ismail said the decentralized finance (DeFi) and memecoins markets would benefit from a Trump victory, as Trump has been actively promoting his new DeFi project World Liberty Financial (WLFI), which will integrate with Aave.
Trump himself is like a walking meme. Ismail pointed out that Trump "holds multiple memecoins in his personal wallet," many of which were obtained through airdrops.
How will his non-crypto policies affect crypto?
Some observers believe Trump's broader economic policies could also benefit the cryptocurrency sector. Finman said lowering capital gains tax would increase investment incentives, driving growth in the cryptocurrency industry.
However, Cuban believes all of Trump's proposals could potentially help cryptocurrency. He believes Trump's economic policies will lead to inflation and will harm cryptocurrency, especially the unprecedented tariffs he will impose in the US.
On October 15, Trump told the Chicago Economic Club that tariffs are the "most beautiful word in the dictionary." He doubled down on his commitment to impose at least a 10% uniform tariff on all imported goods, with tariffs of up to 60% on goods from China.
Cuban believes Trump's tariffs will drive up inflation, ultimately "leading to rising interest rates, which will hurt cryptocurrency."
Will Trump continue his pro-cryptocurrency stance?
Trump may now be portraying himself as a supporter of cryptocurrency, but long-time observers of the cryptocurrency market will remember that he did not support Bitcoin or Altcoins during his previous presidential term.
At the time, he said cryptocurrency "comes out of thin air," and even called it a scam on Fox News.
Finman said that since Trump was born around World War II, "it's understandable that he didn't initially understand Bitcoin." He believes Trump's sudden change of heart may be positive, as it shows "he is persuadable" and "open-minded, willing to adjust his views when presented with new information."
Crypto Rand acknowledges that Trump's acceptance of cryptocurrency may not be entirely genuine and believes it is "opportunistic" - Trump has seized a huge opportunity to gain new support and another source of campaign funding.
However, "Trump has proven himself to be an excellent businessman," Crypto Rand said, "and the ability to adapt to new trends, change mindsets, and identify upcoming industry-changing sectors is part of the necessary skillset."
