One of the important events in the United States in early November is the US presidential election. The two leading choices are Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris, so who will be elected.
For those of you who are interested in this event, I will guide you on how to bet to earn some extra $ (the prediction has a probability factor, so brothers should consider it).
And the platform I will use is the newly introduced Prediction Markets of the dYdX house, the special thing is that it helps brothers can add leverage when betting and is relatively green!
What is Prediction Market?
dYdX has moved from Layer 2 on Ethereum to build its own Layer1 blockchain on Cosmos Interchain to reduce transaction costs for users.
The Prediction Market is a narrative that has received a lot of attention, with the leading project in the current trend being Polymarket. In addition to predicting market prices, sporting events, etc., the hottest event right now is the 2024 US presidential election.
However, with Polymarket, when brothers buy Trump's shares at $5, when Trump is elected, brothers can sell them at $10, only getting a 100% ROI (or after deducting costs, only 95% ROI).
So the dex derivatives platform dYdX has launched a product to help brothers add "leverage" when making their predictions, currently the maximum leverage is 20x. So when brothers bet $5 on Trump with 20x leverage, if Trump is elected, brothers can get a maximum ROI of 2000% ~ $100. However, if Trump is gradually losing, the winning rate decreases, brothers will still be liquidated as usual, similar to trading long and short.
Note: The Prediction Market is quite black and white. Only participate with a small amount of capital as the win rate is quite low. A few numbers for brothers to reference is that there are up to 171,113 wallets participating in Polymarket, of which 149,383 wallets are losing => The win rate is only about 13%, meaning that out of 100 players, only 13 people win.
In Q4 this year, the dYdX project will have a few major updates, including MegaVault & Unlimited which are being closely watched.
Guide to experience Prediction Markets on dYdX
Currently, USDC can be deposited on many networks (sources) into the dYdX platform, but in this article I will guide brothers to deposit on the Optimism network to have the lowest cost!
Preparation:
Prepare USDC and $ETH on the Optimism network (about 100-200 USDC and 5-10$ $ETH is enough).
Step 1: Access https://dydx.trade/trade/ETH-USD and connect your wallet
Step 2: Select Deposit, here brothers choose Source (money comes from) => Select Optimism and USDC => Then enter the amount of USDC you want to Deposit (deposit into the betting account) and that's it.
Next, wait about 10-20 minutes for the USDC to be deposited into the account.
Step 3: Access https://dydx.trade/trade/TRUMPWIN-USD to place bets, buy Trump's shares.
Currently the odds ratio is 0.58x$, if Trump is elected, it will go up to 1$. In addition, brothers can use leverage up to 20x to increase their position. However, the accompanying risk is that the price will be closer to the liquidation price, brothers should consider if using max leverage. Recommend using 5x or less, brothers.
Divided into 2 directions:
+ Believe Trump will be elected president, then brothers will execute a Long order
+ Believe someone else will be elected president, then brothers will execute a Short order
With orders like Limit, Market similar to what brothers execute on trading platforms. The leverage in the image I'm setting is 5x.
If you want to go long on the position, enter the amount in the Amount field (the Amount field has USD or the number of Trump shares), here the Amount is set to USD.
For example, if you want to go long on a $100 position with 5x leverage, you need to pay $20.
Please follow the image below to close the position!
