Cryptocurrency analyst Sminston Wit predicted that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could exceed $200,000. This prediction came on the same day that Bitcoin's price failed to reach the widely anticipated $70,000.
However, Wit suggests that this prediction is unlikely to materialize this year or next. The platform reveals the method the analyst used to reach this conclusion and the likelihood of Bitcoin achieving this target.
The Bitcoin Decline Model Presents Higher Peaks, Analyst Reveals
On Monday, October 21st, Wit posted on X (formerly Twitter) saying that BTC could reach between $199,106 and $207,623. The analyst arrived at this conclusion after evaluating the Decline Channel model.
The Decline Model was designed to challenge previous predictive models, particularly the widely recognized Rainbow Chart and the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which have been influential in forecasting Bitcoin's price movements.
Nevertheless, the Decline Model presents an alternative perspective, including factors that can explain the diminishing returns and slowing growth as an asset matures. Interestingly, this prediction is also echoed by another analyst's forecast for Bitcoin, which predicts it could reach $200,000 by 2025.
Read more: Top 7 Platforms Offering Bitcoin Bonus in 2024
"Depending on the regression method used, whether linear or non-linear, the decline upper bound on January 1, 2026 appears to be $199,106 or $207,623. Despite this level of decline, this is still positive!" Wit said.
However, according to on-chain data, when looking at Bitcoin's cycle top indicators, the coin may not rise that high. Instead, the 350-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) represents the highest possible price for the cycle, and the top for BTC could be around $114,256.
In a related development, Julian Timmer has suggested that Bitcoin's price could range-bound for an extended period.
In his post, Timmer pointed out that Bitcoin's adoption curve is lagging behind gold, making it difficult for BTC to experience a sharp acceleration in the short term. This slow adoption could limit Bitcoin's price growth, despite its potential as a store of value.
BTC Price Prediction: First Drops Below $63,000
According to the daily chart, Bitcoin's price attempted $70,000 and reached a low of $69,126 on the last green candle.
However, as can be seen below, the coin failed to break out of the ascending parallel channel, which could have allowed it to move higher. As a result, BTC is currently trading below $67,000. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the index has declined.
RSI uses the magnitude and speed of price changes to measure momentum. An increase indicates positive momentum, while a decrease signifies weakening bullish momentum, which appears to be the case for BTC currently.
Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
If this persists, Bitcoin's price could drop to $62,995. On the other hand, if momentum turns positive again and buying pressure increases, BTC could rise to $69,400 and potentially surpass $73,000 in the short term. This aligns with the analyst's Bitcoin predictions.
