Author: Ryanqyz
Meme coins are undoubtedly the hottest sector in the entire market. Buying Meme coins seems the simplest and has the highest odds, but very few people have made big profits, and many have lost everything. The reasons include market manipulation, small-scale manipulators, conspiracy groups, KOLs creating traps, etc. But today I want to share a perspective that is overlooked by the vast majority of people, which I believe is the crown jewel in the Crypto world: the community.
Many people will say that in this cycle, there are no Meme coins, and everyone is struggling against conspiracy groups, trying to find the real manipulator behind a coin; "A coin without a manipulator is like a pile of loose sand, blown away by the wind." I think so too, finding the manipulator is definitely one of the most important factors to win in the crypto world, after all, "the perspective of the one who puts in the most money is the God's perspective."
However, if we change our perspective and stand on the other side of the gambling table, what will a manipulator be thinking?
If I am the project party, then I am the manipulator of the project's tokens, so in order to offload my holdings, I must get as many people as possible to buy this coin, I must choose to let the price rise, gain sufficient market attention and liquidity, and I also hope that the people who have bought this token will sell as little as possible, so that I can sell more tokens at a higher price.
If I am a whale (a big manipulator), I have money but no coins, what should I do? I want to buy a coin that will let me sleep at night, will go up in the future, and if I spend money to manipulate the market, many people will follow, and I hope my opponents' positions are small enough and the diamond hands are enough, and I also hope the other manipulators' thinking is consistent with mine. Of course, I also hope that the project party's scale is large enough and they won't sell all the tokens too early.
We will find that the interests of the project parties who want to do business in the long run and the whales actually overlap a lot: the coin price needs to rise, there need to be enough people following when it rises, as many people as possible need to know about this coin, there need to be enough diamond hands and few paper hands, the holders' thoughts and actions need to be as consistent as possible, and both hope the project can last relatively long, so they can get higher returns.
How to identify a project that can last, how to identify if people will buy this coin, how to identify if there are enough diamond hands, how to identify the consistency of the coin holders' thoughts and actions? Ultimately, it comes down to observing the behavior of the coin holders. The collection of holders, we call it the community. The community can be on Twitter, TG, Discord, WeChat, TikTok, anywhere.
A high-quality community needs to achieve the following goals:
Increase the exposure of the token;
Increase the buy-side;
Reduce the sell-side;
Make the collective interests, behaviors, and thoughts of the community consistent;
Exponentially expand the community, whether in terms of numbers or buy-side volume (as the market cap increases, the required energy also increases).
How does a high-quality community achieve these goals?
Have a clear and definite value anchor point;
Have a clear, definite, and iterative set of language rhetoric that community members all use:
For example, "It's funnier if you don't sell", "Stop Trading and Believe in Something";
When the price goes up, community members will use megaphones in various channels to call on everyone to get on board;
When the price goes down, community members will despise those who sell, or ignore the selling phenomenon, and even encourage members to sell to improve their lives and welcome them back, and tell other community members not to sell their tokens;
Through welfare distribution and event-driven activities within the community, early community members can make money.
You may think: who are you? I have no relationship with you, you don't give me money, why should I help you shill the coin, why should I be so loyal to you, why should I do this and that? And this community thing is so hard to do, you have to shill, you can't sell, who can do it? I just look at the K-line, I just look at the KOLs, what does this community have to do with me?
But these essentially have nothing to do with my decision-making, as an investor, what I need to do is to be an observer, I just need to be able to identify such a community, hold them, join them, create funny content with them, let them help me make money, and then act crazy and stupid with them, and I can achieve the final victory. This is a very interesting thing.
A high-quality community generally has the following characteristics:
Like a cult, speaking some nonsensical words;
Early holders have made a lot of money, but are adamant about not selling, and are even adding more positions:
There is a possibility of reaching an extremely crazy market cap and an anchor point;
The community has a very powerful main leader, while each person has the spirit of community ownership (OwnershIP);
A large amount of organic, community-created derivative Meme pictures and videos, rough in production, but interesting enough;
The community has tools to help everyone create derivative content, such as adding laser eyes or tags;
Have a Non-Fungible Token (NFT) Collection, used to identify each other on social media and express attitudes, and form a positive flywheel with the coin price;
Have a unique Handle suffix;
Related to certain real-world subcultures, yet easy to understand;
Just mentioning it on Twitter will get a lot of real people to interact (not bots);
Inspiring people, bringing them joy, and providing some solace in life;
The holders are KOCs (Key Opinion Consumers) in their own small circles, who like to influence others, or have already become KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders).
Obviously, the vast majority of ordinary cat, dog, hippopotamus, and AI coins are not on this list. They have no community in any dimension, only a K-line and a piggybacked IP, these I will truly call a scam. Is setting up a TG group a community? Is pulling a banner and shooting an English video with a Henan accent a community? Essentially, without sufficient PVP, address scraping, and manipulator tactics, participating in these coins, unless you get in very early, your long-term mathematical expectation must be less than zero.
The vast majority of people are essentially playing a very difficult-to-win game. Because essentially, the token trend of these coins, unless you are the manipulator itself/you are a big KOL who can shill and get inside information/your address library is comprehensive enough and your PVP is strong enough, you cannot have any real grip to predict. It's luck if you're right, and strength if you're wrong.
Without a community, only an IP, or even a coin without an IP, the holders are simply lured in by the token price/K-line and KOL hype. Are you proud of observing trading volume, pool size, TX count, and whether the so-called new wallet whales have entered? Do you really think these projects will last in the long run, can you sleep well holding the coins? Strong manipulators are indeed good, the 4-hour line is all up, but when they net out, it may be the guys buying. Essentially, for Meme coins, besides the manipulators, the most important product is a community with emotional connection, the community = fundamentals. (Non-Meme, past Link marine, Temple DAO, Magic, and current Solana actually have similar communities).
To come back, for the members of a high-quality community, they generally attach more importance to the emotional experience, rather than the material experience. The dissemination and formation of community culture is a wonderful thing in their eyes, they don't really care whether the short-term trend of the coin is good or bad, the bonding between community members is very strong, and they are also very receptive to each other's views, and they are even more likely to become friends in the real world.
As prices rise, the connection between community members will be strengthened, the community will shout through a megaphone on Twitter, Twitter will enter a crazy interactive stage, more people will join, and more people will want to own a Non-Fungible Token because it looks cool and proves they've made money to show off; just like everyone wants to play with the cool kids. When it reaches the All-Time High, there will be a lot of outside retail investors rushing in to buy the dip.
Of course, when the price drops, the voices in the community will naturally become fewer, and some paper hands will also leave the community, sell their Non-Fungible Tokens, and even speak ill of the community. However, at this time, the real leaders and diamond hands in the community will appear, taking the lead in buying in and those who are determined not to sell will stand out, publicly express their views on social media, and call on community members to unite. The volume on social media will be very small, but the faithful believers will begin to emerge at this time, and the emotional connection between these people will become deeper and deeper, like waiting for dawn in a trench without bread.
Moreover, this is also the time when the smart money (long-term money) will start to pour in in large quantities and buy a large number of chips. And this smart money is usually KOLs, or even the community members themselves adding positions. This process is the process of chips transforming from paper hands to diamond hands, and the process of transforming from psychologically fragile people to people with inner strength and the ability to cut through the noise.
Therefore, the establishment of the community and the manipulation of the coin price are complementary and mutually reinforcing. Qualified devs can fully wash away the paper hands, retain the diamond hands, and create enough event-driven to increase the cohesion of the community. Coin price and community, in some contexts, may actually be the same thing.
Finally, back to the buying side, when the core community of a coin is very solid and only diamond hands remain, the people with resources and capabilities in the core community will start to find whales to enter the market. The whales who believe will not be let down, the token will rise smoothly, there will be very few sellers, and the number of followers will be much greater than the number of sellers, until some members of the community want to cash out or the overall market situation deteriorates, and then this coin will be pushed to the next market cap stage. Then it will return to the next trough and the next peak. A good community can settle down more diamond hands, more supporters, and more interesting, resourceful, and powerful holders in each wave, which is also why the strong will only get stronger and the weak are destined to go to zero.
In my eyes, the three coins that have truly formed a real community or Cult in this cycle are:
$MOG;
$SPX;
The core ideas they convey are:
#BITCOIN: Why so serious? Its funnier if u dont sell
Corresponding to the lack of humor in people's lives, don't be too serious;
$MOG : Moggers gonna Mog
Corresponding to people's longing for a casual, relaxed, and trendy lifestyle;
$SPX : Stop Trading and Believe in Something
Corresponding to the rebellion against elitism and the continuation of the GME narrative in the crypto world.
To the readers:
Reduce PVP frequency, be picky enough when choosing coins;
Sleep more, stay clear-headed, find those meme coins that will work for your position even when you're asleep;
For the coins you like, buy when they're down, preferably when they're crashing, don't buy when they're rising, exercise your intuition and muscle memory for contrarian thinking;
Enjoy the selling process, it's okay to sell high, as long as you don't sell everything at once, the best case scenario is to be able to sell high forever;
Reduce reliance on KOLs, go into the community and observe for yourself, look at the chip structure, trust your own judgment;
Identify valuable content accounts and interact with them more (<1% of accounts are still doing this).
That's my understanding of the community, covering what a community means to a project and how to evaluate a project from a community perspective. In fact, if you're patient, making money isn't that hard. I know everyone is impatient, I'm often the same way, so I wish you all a good time.
