The probability of Donald Trump's victory on the Polymarket prediction market has surpassed his opponent Kamala Harris since 10/5 and has been on a continuous upward trend, reaching 64.2% by 10/24. Bitcoin has been gradually rising from $61K on 10/5, but has been unable to smoothly break through the $70,000 psychological barrier, causing the crypto community to gradually lose patience. What kind of Trump trade is the market currently dominated by?
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ToggleThe US dollar strengthens, and US bond yields rise
Recently, US bond yields and the US dollar index have been rising in sync. Standard Chartered Bank stated that the US dollar's rise this month is mainly due to the increased probability of Trump winning the US presidential election, which has driven the dollar's rise, and calculated that six-tenths of this increase is related to the expected victory of Trump.
Trump's proposal to impose high tariffs on imported goods may reignite inflation and raise interest rates, while his other policy proposals, such as tax cuts and deregulation, aimed at stimulating economic growth and improving corporate profitability, will also increase market demand for the US dollar.
The US dollar index has risen 1.76% during this period, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has risen 7.04%.
Gold frequently hits new highs
Gold has also frequently hit new highs this year due to geopolitical risks, the start of the US interest rate cut cycle, and the uncertainty of the US election, rising more than 30% so far this year, but it seems to be less directly related to the Trump trade.
Has Bit joined the Trump trade and become stronger?
Has the crypto-friendly Trump policy allowed Bit to join this wave of Trump trades and become stronger?
Although Bit has also been gradually rising from $61K on 10/5, it has been unable to smoothly break through the $70,000 psychological barrier. While various institutions have always estimated that Trump's election would be more favorable for cryptocurrency regulation and would bring strong upward momentum to Bit, the market seems to have not yet felt this optimistic atmosphere. ABMedia has also compiled the Bit price forecasts by various institutions if Trump is elected:
- Standard Chartered: $200,000
- Bernstein: $90,000
- Bitwise: $250,000 (without considering the election)
