A quick overview of important events this week (10/20-10/26)
- U.S. Treasury yields rise: Although the cycle of interest rate cuts has begun, a variety of reasons continue to dampen market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Gold reaches a record high: triggering market attention on the subsequent performance of "digital gold" Bitcoin .
- Japan's interest rate hike may lead to a wave of corporate bankruptcies: the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again , pushing the corporate bankruptcy rate to more than 5,000, with total liabilities reaching 1.38 trillion yen.
- Buffett's indicator breaks 200%: The market's high valuation indicator hit 200%, a record high . Citi analysts warned that U.S. stocks are at risk of a flash crash at any time.
- The Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission has strengthened inspections: It will conduct special inspections to prevent money laundering on 6 virtual asset service providers (VASPs) to strengthen supervision.
- U.S. government wallet hacked: A cryptocurrency wallet controlled by the U.S. government was suspected of being hacked, resulting in the loss of $20 million in cryptocurrency, which was quickly returned.
- SEC approves Bitcoin spot ETF options: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETF option applications . It is expected that the leverage effect will drive Bitcoin price fluctuations.
- The eighth wave of housing crackdowns is coming in Taiwan: Experts predict that the central bank may misjudge the market due to the lack of real-time housing price data and further launch the eighth wave of housing crackdown policies, predicting that housing prices will fall significantly .
Changes in trading market data this week
Sentiments and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
This week's market sentiment indicator rose from 72 (greedy) to 72 (greedy), staying in the (greedy) range throughout the week.
2. Funding rate heat map
This week, the Bitcoin funding rate reached a maximum of 14.81% and a minimum of 9.3% , which shows strong bullish sentiment.
The funding rate heat map shows the changing trend of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies. The color ranges from green with zero rate to yellow with 50% positive rate. Black represents negative rate; the white K-line chart shows the price fluctuation of Bitcoin. , in contrast to the funding rate.
3. Sector performance
According to Artemis data, the average increase in the blockchain sector this week was ( -2.3%) , with DePIN, Perp DEX, and DeFi occupying the top three respectively ( 5.1%, 4.9%, and 4.2%) .
This week’s gains for Bitcoin and Ethereum were ( -1.2%, -5.8%) .
The three worst performing areas are: RWA (-10.5%), AI (-8.6%), and Social (-8.5%).
market liquidity
1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization and stablecoin supply
Data on the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies this week showed that it decreased from US$2.4 trillion to US$2.38 trillion , a decrease of US$20 billion, and the total market value increased by approximately 0.83%.
The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, decreased from $163.05 billion to $162.62 billion this week, a decrease of $430 million, or approximately 0.26%.
2. Reduction in potential purchasing power within the exchange
Data show that the overall assets of the exchange this week were net outflows.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a large net inflow of funds
Bitcoin ETF inflows this week were $869.7 million.
2. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin is in the " consider buying " range ( $68,000 ), between the " considering fixed investment " stage ($70,000) and the " special sale " stage ($52,000).
3. Bitcoin net profit and loss performance
Bitcoin's realized net profit and loss indicator shows that the current market conditions have recovered, and the proportion of profits and losses is generally similar to that in January this year .
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders reduce their holdings
According to on-chain data , since mid-October, this net position data has gradually turned negative and continued to decline in the following days, suggesting that long-term holders began to significantly reduce their positions, and the current selling has not intensified further. However, Bitcoin prices have remained relatively stable, which may indicate that market demand is still sufficient to absorb these selling pressures, or it may indicate that the market is about to turn.
5. Increased purchasing power on the Bitcoin chain
There was a clear behavioral difference in the Bitcoin market this week between short-term and long-term holders, according to on-chain data . The steady growth of long-term holders shows that the market's long-term investment confidence still exists.
6. Bitcoin contract holdings hit a new high
According to data , contract positions on Bitcoin exchanges showed a stable upward trend this week, falling from US$40.38 billion to US$39.24 billion , still higher than the critical level of US$39 billion at the end of March this year. This increase in positions indicates active leverage trading activity in the market and a significant increase in investor risk appetite.
Important technical indicators of Ethereum
1. Net outflow of Ethereum spot ETF funds
Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of approximately US$3.5 million this week.
2. Bitcoin Correlation
Data this week shows that the correlation between BTC and ETH and SOL is 0.52 and -0.15 respectively. The overall correlation between BTC and other cryptocurrencies is stable, and the positive correlation with cryptocurrencies such as USDT and BNB remains at a high level of 0.87 and 0.82. Bitcoin’s correlation within the overall market remains largely stable compared to last week.
The correlation between the mainstream cryptocurrencies in the market has remained at a high level this week, especially the correlation between BTC, ETH and BNB.
3.DeFi market total locked position (TVL)
This week’s data shows that the total locked-up volume in the DeFi market has increased from US$87.93 billion.
Market analysis news this week
1. U.S. bond yields continue to rise, "dampening expectations of interest rate cuts." Dow Jones plunges 400 points, Goldman Sachs: The golden decade of the S&P 500 has passed
Bitcoin hit $65,251 early this morning, reaching its lowest point in a week. However, it rebounded quickly and broke through $67,000 again. Is it a healthy correction or a Dead Cat Bounce? It remains to be seen. ( continue reading )
2. Gold breaks the all-time high of $2,722! Is the "digital gold" Bitcoin opportunity still far away?
The price of gold has been rising steadily this year, breaking through the US$2,700 mark yesterday, and today it reached a historical high of US$2,722 per ounce. So in the context of gold's continuous rise, can Bitcoin, known as "digital gold", replicate gold's high trend? ( continue reading )
3. 7 valuation models for Bitcoin: from $500,000 to $24 million
We sorted out 7 Bitcoin valuation models and analyzed the potential value of Bitcoin under the same models. ( continue reading )
4. The effect of Japan’s interest rate hike》The collapse of zombie companies: the number of bankruptcies this year exceeded 5,000, and the debt reached 1.38 trillion yen
The Bank of Japan is about to hold another monetary policy meeting at the end of this month. The outside world is currently paying close attention to whether Japan will continue its July policy and announce another interest rate hike? In this regard, "Reuters" recently reported that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates again this month is not high. ( continue reading )
5. U.S. debt plummets! The ten-year yield soared 4.2%, breaking a three-month high. The community cried: If you buy it again, I will be a pig.
As the recent data released by the United States was better than expected, showing that the economy is still strong, and many Federal Reserve officials believe that the pace of future interest rate cuts should slow down, the market's expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Fed have gradually cooled down. However, this situation also led to a sharp surge in U.S. bond yields and a sharp decline in the U.S. bond market. ( continue reading )
6. Buffett indicator hits 200%! Citigroup warns: A flash crash in U.S. stocks may occur at any time, and bulls are too optimistic..
Recently, the "Buffett indicator" that measures whether the U.S. stock market is overvalued hit 200% for the first time in history. Citibank analysts also pointed out that the exposure of the S&P 500 Index has reached its highest point since mid-2023, and market risks are rising. sharp rise. ( continue reading )
Cryptocurrency regulatory status in various countries
1. Trump’s Polymarket winning rate far exceeds that of Harris Harris’s 28%. The CFTC calls for legislative regulation to follow the example of Taiwan in catching gamblers and blocking Internet domains?
According to the latest data from the on-chain prediction market Polymarket, former President Trump’s winning rate has climbed to 64%, significantly leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by about 28%. However, the legality of prediction markets continues to draw attention from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Its chairman called on Congress yesterday (21st) to legislate and regulate election betting. ( continue reading )
2. In Q4, the Financial Supervisory Commission targeted six VASP operators for the "Money Laundering Prevention Project Financial Inspection". Last year, none of the four exchanges passed the test.
According to the 2025 budget document of the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, after conducting special inspections on four virtual currency (VASP) operators last year to prevent money laundering, the inspection bureau will continue to conduct special financial inspections on VASP operators in Q4 this year, and the target number has increased to 6 Home. ( continue reading )
3. The U.S. government wallet was "shockingly hacked" and lost $20 million in cryptocurrency. Is 200,000 BTC at risk?
Arkham published an article early this morning stating that a wallet controlled by the US government was suspected of being hacked, and USDC, USDT, aUSDC and ETH worth $20 million were transferred to a suspicious address... ( continue reading )
Following BlackRock, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission today once again approved the Bitcoin spot ETF option applications of the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board Options Exchange. A total of more than 10 Bitcoin spot ETF issuers have been approved to trade options, but it should be noted that the SEC approval It is only the first stage and still needs to be approved by the OCC and CFTC before it can be officially launched. ( continue reading )
At the Hello World event in San Francisco, Alex Blania and Sam Altman, co-founders of World Network (formerly known as Worldcoin), introduced the latest progress of the project, which will accelerate global rollout, including expansion to Taiwan. ( continue reading )
Market focus next week
10/29 (Tue)
- United States: Conference Board consumer confidence in October, previous value 98.7
- United States: JOLTS job openings in September, previous value 8.040M
10/30 (Wednesday)
- Germany: GDP in the third quarter (quarter-on-quarter), previous value -0.1%
- Switzerland: Central Bank Press Conference
- UK: Autumn Budget
- United States: Change in non-agricultural employment in October, previous value 143K
- United States: Third quarter GDP (quarter-on-quarter), previous value 3.0%
- Germany: Consumer Price Index CPI in October (month-on-month), previous value 0.0%
- United States: Crude oil inventories, previous value 5.474M
10/31 (Thursday)
- China: Manufacturing PMI in October, previous value 49.8
- Japan: Interest rate decision, last value 0.25%
- Hong Kong: Third quarter GDP (quarter-on-quarter), previous value 0.4%
- Hong Kong: Third quarter GDP (year-on-year), previous value 3.3%
- Eurozone: Consumer Price Index CPI in October (year-on-year), previous value 1.7%
- United States: September core PCE price index (year-on-year), previous value 2.7%
- United States: September core PCE price index (month-on-month), previous value 0.1%
- United States: Initial Jobless Claims
11/1 (Friday)
- United States: Average hourly wages in October (month-on-month), previous value 0.4%
- United States: Nonfarm payrolls in October, previous value 254K
- United States: Unemployment rate in October, previous value 4.1%
- United States: October ISM Manufacturing PMI, previous value 47.2
- United States: October Manufacturing PMI, previous value 47.8
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Top 5 popular articles this week
1. Taiwan’s “eighth wave of housing crackdowns” is coming with more powerful drugs! Experts predict: house prices will definitely explode and fall by 5% every year
In response to the recent central bank's housing crackdown, real estate market expert Li Tongrong believes that the central bank lacks real-time information on housing prices, making it easy to misjudge the current housing market, and infers that the "eighth wave of housing crackdowns" will definitely come. In addition, investor Internet celebrity Shuai Duoduo said in the program "Go to Your Home After get off work" that house prices will fall by 5% every year in the future, and will fall for three consecutive years. ( continue reading )
2. Jen-Hsun Huang smiled! In response to AMD and Intel forming an x86 alliance to fight against Nvidia and Arm: What they are doing is very good.
Recently, semiconductor giants Intel and AMD have joined forces to form the x86 Alliance, which has caused widespread discussion in the market. It is understood that the purpose of establishing the x86 Alliance is to cope with the impact of the Arm architecture processors led by semiconductor company ARM on the x86 market share. However, according to market speculation, the x86 Alliance It may be that it wants to indirectly attack Huida’s influence in the AI market. ( continue reading )
3. Is the GPU bubble about to burst? Expert: The rental price of Huida H100 dropped to "2 US dollars per hour" and why the demand dropped sharply
Eugene Cheah, founder of AI startup Featherless.Ai, recently wrote an article stating that the rental price of Huida’s flagship AI chip H100 GPU has plummeted from a peak of $8/hour to about $2/hour, and analyzed the main reasons for the sharp drop in demand for H100. reason. ( continue reading )
4. De-dollarize and embrace Bitcoin! Russia plans to promote BTC as an international trading currency, breaking the SWIFT ban
At the 2024 BRICS Summit, leaders of member states agreed to cooperate in building a de-dollarized common cross-border payment system. In addition, it is now reported that Russian lawmakers are expanding their promotion of the use of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin in cross-border payments.
( continue reading )
5. Ke Wenzhe’s cold wallet was found! The problem of troubleshooting "cannot be opened without password", expert: it can be frozen even without seed phrase
On Monday, the latest news from Ling Media pointed out that former Taipei Mayor Ko Wenzhe, who has been detained for his involvement in the Jinghua City scandal, did indeed have his cryptocurrency cold wallet seized, but the investigation failed to find the wallet private key PIN code and seed phrase, the investigation of the virtual currency battlefield has reached a deadlock, which may lead to an increase in the probability of Ke Wenzhe’s detention being postponed. ( continue reading )