Odaily星球日报讯 Bitfinex 发表研报显示，在地缘政治不确定性、宏观经济因素和“特朗普交易”叙事不断加剧的多重影响下，BTC 波动性加剧，上周出现 6.2%的周内大幅回调，随后反弹。此次回调凸显了即将到来的美国总统大选对短期价格的影响日益增强，特朗普当选几率与比特币上涨轨迹之间的相关性有所增强。 市场对大选的期待推动了期权交易活动的激增，在大选前后的关键日期到期的期权的溢价更高，隐含波动率可能会在 11 月 8 日美国选举日后不久的达到 100 日波动率的峰值，表明市场正在为潜在的动荡做准备，预计无论选举结果如何短期波动率都会高于平常心。

Odaily星球日报讯 Bitfinex 发表研报显示，在地缘政治不确定性、宏观经济因素和“特朗普交易”叙事不断加剧的多重影响下，BTC 波动性加剧，上周出现 6.2%的周内大幅回调，随后反弹。此次回调凸显了即将到来的美国总统大选对短期价格的影响日益增强，特朗普当选几率与比特币上涨轨迹之间的相关性有所增强。市场对大选的期待推动了期权交易活动的激增，在大选前后的关键日期到期的期权的溢价更高，隐含波动率可能会在 11 月 8 日美国选举日后不久的达到 100 日波动率的峰值，表明市场正在为潜在的动荡做准备，预计无论选举结果如何短期波动率都会高于平常心。

Bitfinex Alpha：特朗普当选几率与比特币上涨轨迹之间的相关性有所增强

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Bitfinex's research report shows that under the multiple influences of geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic factors, and the increasingly intensified "Trump trade" narrative, BTC volatility has increased, with a sharp 6.2% weekly correction last week, followed by a rebound. This correction highlights the growing impact of the upcoming US presidential election on short-term prices, and the correlation between Trump's election chances and the trajectory of Bitcoin's rise has strengthened. Market expectations for the election have driven a surge in options trading activity, with options expiring around key dates before and after the election having higher premiums, and implied volatility is expected to reach a peak of 100-day volatility shortly after the US election on November 8, indicating that the market is preparing for potential turmoil, and volatility is expected to be higher than normal in the short term, regardless of the election outcome.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Bitfinex's research report shows that under the multiple influences of geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic factors, and the increasingly intensified "Trump trade" narrative, BTC volatility has increased, with a sharp 6.2% weekly correction last week, followed by a rebound. This correction highlights the growing impact of the upcoming US presidential election on short-term price movements, and the correlation between Trump's election chances and the trajectory of Bitcoin's rise has strengthened. Market expectations for the election have driven a surge in options trading activity, with options expiring around key dates before and after the election commanding higher premiums, and implied volatility likely to peak at around 100-day volatility shortly after the November 8th US election, indicating that the market is preparing for potential turmoil, and volatility is expected to be higher than normal in the short term, regardless of the election outcome.

Bitfinex Alpha: Correlation between Trump's chances of winning and Bitcoin's upward trajectory strengthens

Odaily Planet Daily Report: In a recent report, Morgan Stanley analysts Monica Guerra and Daniel Kohen analyzed the potential impact of the 2024 US presidential election on the market, noting that economic signals are mixed and investor uncertainty is increasing. They explained that fluctuating consumer sentiment and persistently high prices are affecting voters' views, and traditional market indicators cannot provide clear predictions of the election outcome. Despite these factors, Guerra and Kohen believe that "while political outcomes and corresponding policy changes may impact corporate profitability, business and economic cycles may be more relevant to market performance." They advise investors to focus on long-term strategies rather than reacting to election-driven market changes. The analysts warned that a delayed election result could lead to increased volatility, stating that "a delayed election result will bring a period of uncertainty and speculation, which has historically led to increased short-term market volatility." Due to the tight poll results in key swing states and the uncertain timing of mail-in ballot counting, the final result may take several days or even weeks to be revealed, potentially causing significant market disruption. Looking ahead, Guerra and Kohen detailed that "as the campaign accelerates, proposals intensify, and the competition for swing state voters heightens, we expect the final sprint to election day to be contentious. An unexpected political event or revelation, the so-called 'October surprise', could have a modest impact on the election, and the combination of mail-in voting, staggered vote counting, and the intensity of the competition could leave the election result in limbo for some time, exacerbating market volatility." (<Bit>coin.com)

Morgan Stanley: The US presidential election may trigger severe market volatility, and investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The US spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to purchase its 1 millionth Bitcoin as early as this week, as traders are preparing for potential crypto-friendly factors in November. These positive factors include the US election, the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut, and Russia's lifting of the Bitcoin mining ban - all of which are happening in November. According to data from Apollo and SoSoValue, the issuer of the US spot Bitcoin ETF currently holds 976,893 Bitcoins, worth over $66.2 billion, accounting for nearly 5% of Bitcoin's $1.34 trillion market capitalization. The spot Bitcoin ETF needs a net inflow of $1.55 billion (i.e., the purchase of an additional 23,107 Bitcoins) to reach this milestone. To achieve this goal within this week, it would require a net inflow of $301 million per day on average. However, Henrik Andersson, Chief Investment Officer of Apollo Capital, believes that the "biggest determinative factor" in deciding whether the crypto market will rise is Trump's victory: "If he actually wins, we think the momentum in risk assets could drive Bitcoin to $100,000 by the end of the year."(Cointelegraph)

Analysis: Multiple positive factors are expected in November, and Bitcoin ETF may soon purchase its 1 millionth Bitcoin

According to the latest report from QCP Capital, Trump's interview on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, released a week before the election, has received over 32 million views, raising his odds on Polymarket to over 66%. Although cryptocurrencies have been dubbed the "Trump trade," the correlation between Bitcoin and Trump's odds seems to be weakening, as Bitcoin is currently attempting to break above $70,000 and surpass its July highs. Bitcoin has only gained 8% this month, lower than the average 21%. If the spot price remains at the current level, October 2022 will be the fourth-worst performing month for Bitcoin in the past decade.

As the market awaits the election results next week, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can break above $70,000. The report suggests maintaining caution, as the core PCE data on Thursday and the nonfarm payroll data on Friday are not expected to have any surprises. Currently, the total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts across exchanges has reached $27 billion, close to this year's peak. If Bitcoin breaks above $70,000, it could trigger new highs, especially with more leveraged long positions involved.